Landslide susceptibility mapping by using statistical analysis in the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) on the northern part of Suşehri Town,Turkey

Numerical modelling techniques enable forcing function at the point of contact in a hail impact to be predicted, but many models available in commercial software have not been verified by experiments. A recently developed deterministic model is only able to simulate the impact action of an idealised spherical hailstone. Results recorded from the impact testing of non-spherical simulated hail ice specimens show wide scatters and are different to spherical specimens. A stochastic model has been developed in this study to incorporate the variability of the modelling parameters representing the behaviour of non-spherical ice specimens and to generate time histories of contact force for given impact scenarios. A probabilistic model which was developed previously to provide predictions of the distribution of the size of hailstones in a severe category hailstorm has also been further developed to provide predictions of the maximum contact force values in probabilistic terms. For any given pre-defined forcing function denting into the surface of a steel plate can be estimated by finite element analysis or experimentally on a test machine. The new knowledge base introduced in this paper can be used by manufacturers and designers to re-assess existing products and in making improvements to future installations taking into account cost–benefit considerations.     

Evaluation of andesite source as armourstone for a rubble mound breakwater (Hisarönü, Turkey)

Black Sea coast line is a hazardous region especially in winter due to the dominant wave action. Therefore, rubble mound breakwaters protected with armourstone used as ship shelters are vital structures especially for the fishermen. The deterioration of the armourstone with time in the form of abrasion and disintegration may result in the failure of the breakwater. In this study, the properties of the armourstone taken from an andesite quarry and used in the Hisarönü rubble mound breakwater were studied both in field and laboratory in order to assess their qualities and long-term durabilities. Based on the in situ observations and laboratory tests, the andesite is found to be generally marginal rock. CIRIA/CUR, RDI_s, RERS and Wet-Dry strength ratio classifications are in good agreement with the in situ observations and the results of the laboratory tests. However, RDI_d, Average Pore Diameter and Saturation Coefficient classifications cannot correctly predict long-term durability of the armourstone. Field studies reveal that block size of the andesite in the quarry increases with depth due to the increase in spacing of the cooling joints of the rock.     

Assessment of potential seismic hazard and site effect in Antakya (Hatay Province), SE Turkey

Antakya city is at risk because of strong earthquakes occurring in the area, and different soil conditions that can produce variation of the ground motion amplification. Microzonation of cities provides a basis for site-specific hazard analysis in urban settlements. In particular, seismic microzonation can be provided by means of detailed seismic assessment of the area, including earthquake recordings and geological studies. In this paper, we propose a preliminary microzonation map for the city of Antakya, based on the variation of the dominant periods and shear velocities of the sediments covering the area. The periods are retrieved from microtremor measurements conducted at 69 sites, using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The results of microtremor analysis were compared with data obtained from refraction microtremor (ReMi) measurements at four profiles crossing the studied area. According to the classification of dominant periods, Antakya city can be divided into five zones, probably prone to different levels of seismic hazard. The shorter natural periods are in inner Antakya and both the sides of Asi River (i.e., northern and southern parts). The eastern and western parts of Antakya have maximum dominant periods. The V _s ³⁰ values were calculated by using the ReMi method along the profiles. Antakya city has V _s ³⁰ values in the range of category C of the national earthquake hazard reduction programme site classification.     

Regional gravimetric quasi-geoid model and transformation surface to national height system for Turkey (THG-09)

Turkish regional geoid models have been developed by employing a reference earth gravitational model, surface gravity observations and digital terrain models. The gravimetric geoid models provide a ready transformation from ellipsoidal heights to the orthometric heights through the use of GPS/leveling geoid heights determined through the national geodetic networks. The recent gravimetric models for Turkish territory were computed depending on OSU91 (TG-91) and EGM96 (TG-03) earth gravitational models. The release of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08), the collection of new surface gravity observations, the advanced satellite altimetry-derived gravity over the sea, and the availability of the high resolution digital terrain model have encouraged us to compute a new geoid model for Turkey. We used the Remove-Restore procedure based on EGM08 and applied Residual Terrain Model (RTM) reduction of the surface gravity data. Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was then used to obtain the residual quasigeoid from the reduced gravity. We restored the individual contributions of EGM08 and RTM to the whole quasi-geoid height (TQG-09). Since the Helmert orthometric height system is adopted in Turkey, the quasi-geoid model (TQG-09) was then converted to the geoid model (TG-09) by making use of Bouguer gravity anomalies and digital terrain model. After all we combined a gravimetric geoid model with GPS/leveling geoid heights in order to obtain a hybrid geoid model (THG-09) (or a transformation surface) to be used in GPS applications. The RMS of the post-fit residuals after the combination was found to be ± 0.95 cm, which represents the internal precision of the final combination. And finally, we tested the hybrid geoid model with GPS/leveling data, which were not used in the combination, to assess the external accuracy. Results show that the external accuracy of the THG-09 model is ± 8.4 cm, a precision previously not achieved in Turkey until this study.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping by frequency ratio and logistic regression methods: an example from Niksar–Resadiye (Tokat,Turkey)

Turkey confronts loss of life and large economic losses due to natural disasters caused by its morphologic structure, geographical placement, and climate characteristics. The Kuzulu (Koyulhisar) landslide, which caused loss of life and property on 17th March 2005, occurred in an area near the country’s most important active fault, the North Anatolian Fault Zone. To mitigate and prevent landslide damages, prediction of landslide susceptibility areas based on probabilistic methods has a great importance. The purpose of this study was to produce a landslide susceptibility map by the logistic regression and frequency ratio methodologies for a 733-km² area near the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the southeast of Niksar to Resadiye in Tokat province. Conditioning parameters, such as elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, distance to streams, roads, and faults, drainage density, and fault density, were used in the analysis. Before susceptibility analysis, the landslides observed in the area were separated into two groups for use in analysis and verification, respectively. The susceptibility maps produced had five different susceptibility classes such as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. To test the performance of the susceptibility maps, area under curve (AUC) approach was used. For the logistic regression method, the AUC value was 0.708; while for the frequency rate method, this value was 0.744. According to these AUC values, it could be concluded that the two landslide susceptibility maps obtained were successful.     

Engineering properties of Hınıs ignimbrites and their usability as a building stone (Erzurum, Turkey)

The survival of several ancient monuments made of ignimbrites in Hınıs town (Erzurum-Anatolia), which has suffered from intense annual temperature fluctuations and strong seismic activity, can mainly be attributed to use of suitable building stones. This paper examines the usability as building stones of Middle Miocene Hınıs ignimbrites that widely outcrop in and around Hınıs town. The petrographical, geochemical, mechanical, and physical properties determined lead to categorization of the ignimbrites as four different types. The Hınıs ignimbrites contain dasite–trachy–andesite and rhyolite. Rhyolite is the strongest material whereas the other types, being more porous, are weaker, lighter, and have good heat-insulation properties. Being light (easily transportable, machinable, and workable), good heat insulators, environmentally friendly (because of natural ventilation), sufficiently elastic to sustain seismic loading in the area under study, and more cost-effective than artificial stones, Hınıs ignimbrites are certainly a preferable option for use as light building stone. These ignimbrites are not suitable for use as floor covering, however, (because of rapid abrasion) or for building structural columns (because of low strength).     

Effects of soil heterogeneity on susceptibility of shallow landslides

Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method.

     

Relation of tectonic structure to groundwater flow in the Beypazari region, NW Anatolia, Turkey

The Beypazari region in NW Anatolia (Turkey) is characterized by high water demand and stress on available water resources. Tectonic structures control the groundwater flow, hydraulic head and well yield in the study area, which is located in the central part of the Beypazari Neogen basin. The impact of major tectonic structures on groundwater flow in the Cakiloba-Karadoruk aquifer is described. This aquifer is of sedimentary composition and underwent tectonic deformation, post-Miocene, forming northeast-striking asymmetric synclines, anticlines, monoclines, high-angle reverse faults and N–S striking tensional faults. Some of these structures affect groundwater flow by separating the aquifer system into sub-compartments, each having unique recharge, boundary and flow conditions. The groundwater system is compartmentalized into three sub-systems under the impacts of the Zaviye and Kanliceviz faults: (1) Arisekisi, (2) Elmabeli and (3) Southern sub-systems. The southern part of the Arisekisi sub-system and the Southern sub-system are characterized by a syncline and the aquifer is confined in the central part of the syncline. The Elmabeli sub-system has unconfined conditions. Consequently, the effects of tectonic structures are shown to be important for selecting well locations, evaluating groundwater use, groundwater management, and contaminant control in the study area, and also in other tectonic regions.