Investigation of seasonal droughts and related large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan

As a result of climate change and unsustainable land use management in the recent past, droughts have become one of the most devastating climatic hazards whose impacts may prolong from months to years. This study presents analysis of droughts for two major cropping seasons, i.e., Kharif (May–September) and Rabi (October–April), over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan. The analysis is performed using various datasets viz. observational, reanalysis, and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), for the past (1981–2010) and future (2011–2100) time periods. The following two methods for the identification of dry and wet years, also referred to as drought and wetness, are applied: (1) the percentile rank approach and (2) the drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Future projections of droughts are investigated using RCM (RegCM4.4 and RCA4) outputs from CORDEX South Asia domain under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Generally, the indices show non-significant decreasing trends of drought severity in the recent past for all cases; however, significant increasing trends are observed for annual (0.006) and Kharif (0.007) cases under RCP4.5 scenario. The analysis of large-scale atmospheric dynamics suggests the significant role of low-level geopotential height anomalies over Tibetan Plateau (northwest of Pakistan) during Kharif (Rabi) season in controlling drought occurrence by transporting moisture from the Bay of Bengal (Arabian Sea). Moreover, composites of vertically integrated moisture transport, moisture flux convergence/divergence, and precipitable water anomalies show their marked contribution in maintaining the drought/wetness conditions over the Potwar region.     

西宁和贵德盆地新生代沉积物重矿物变化对构造活动的响应

位于青藏高原东北缘的西宁、贵德盆地的新生代沉积序列较完整的记录了盆地周围物源区构造变形过程。重矿物是碎屑物质的重要组成部分,是最直观、有效揭示源区母岩、构造-沉积过程的重要手段。通过重矿物的系统分析,结合沉积-构造变形,揭示出始新世-上新世末西宁-贵得盆地及其源区经历了几个构造活动阶段:古新世-始新世早期的隆升阶段、始新世中期-渐新世晚期的构造稳定阶段、渐新世末-中新世初的构造隆升阶段、中中新世构造稳定阶段和晚中新世以来的强烈隆升阶段。并结合特征矿物（绿泥石）及古水流分析,推断古近纪西宁-贵德盆地是东昆仑山前一个统一盆地。中新世早期青藏高原的扩张导致了拉脊山开始隆起,使原型盆地解体;约8.5 Ma以来拉脊山强烈隆升,两侧盆地逐渐转变为山间盆地。这为正确理解青藏高原东北缘盆山格局的形成和演化提供了重要依据。     

珠江口盆地前新生代先存断裂特征及动力背景

前人针对珠江口盆地前新生代开展过大量研究,但对盆地的原始构造格局仍缺乏统一认识。在高精度三维地震资料的基础上,笔者采用“定性+定量”先存断裂综合识别技术,识别出珠江口盆地惠州凹陷和番禺4洼前新生代基底发育的先存断裂583条。按照断裂是否断穿Tg和断裂倾角大小,将先存断裂分为4类：高角度节理、低角度节理、高角度活化断层和低角度活化断层;按断裂走向划分,将先存断裂分为NW-NWW向和NE-NEE向2组。燕山期晚侏罗—早白垩世,古太平洋板块对华南板块沿NW向正向俯冲,形成NE-NEE向逆冲断裂;燕山期晚白垩世,古太平洋板块对华南板块斜向俯冲产生左旋挤压应力场导致NW-NWW向逆冲断裂形成。这些先存断裂从源头上控制了珠江口盆地的构造格局,为研究盆地后续演化提供了重要支撑。     

Integration of aquifer geology,groundwater flow and arsenic distribution in deltaic aquifers – A unifying concept

Groundwater arsenic (As) presents a public health risk of great magnitude in densely populated Asian delta regions, most acutely in the Bengal Basin (West Bengal, India and Bangladesh). Research has focused on the sources, mobilisation, and heterogeneity of groundwater As, but a consistent explanation of As distribution from local to basin scale remains elusive. We show for the Bengal Aquifer System that the numerous, discontinuous silt‐clay layers together with surface topography impose a hierarchical pattern of groundwater flow, which constrains As penetration into the aquifer and controls its redistribution towards discharge zones, where it is re‐sequestered to solid phases. This is particularly so for the discrete periods of As release to groundwater in the shallow subsurface associated with sea level high‐stand conditions of Quaternary inter‐glacial periods. We propose a hypothesis concerning groundwater flow ( S ilt‐clay layers I mpose H ierarchical groundwater flow patterns constraining A rsenic progression [SIHA]), which links consensus views on the As source and history of sedimentation in the basin to the variety of spatial and depth distributions of groundwater As reported in the literature. SIHA reconciles apparent inconsistencies between independent, in some cases contrasting, field observations. We infer that lithological and topographic controls on groundwater flow, inherent to SIHA, apply more generally to deltaic aquifers elsewhere. The analysis suggests that groundwater As may persist in the aquifers of Asian deltas over thousands of years, but in certain regions, particularly at deeper levels, As will not exceed low background concentrations unless groundwater flow systems are short‐circuited by excessive pumping.     

Assessing groundwater storage changes in the Nubian aquifer using GRACE data

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) level two (L2) data is used in estimating the groundwater storage changes (GWSC) in the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). This set of data consists of spherical harmonics coefficients with specific degree and order. The GRACE data is de-correlated using a sixth degree polynomial in order to reduce the effect of the noise error resulting from the correlation between the spherical harmonics coefficients with the same degree parity. The GRACE estimates of GWSC are smoothed using Gaussian filter with half width of 1000 km. This half width is chosen in order to maximize the correlation between the GRACE estimates of GWSC and previous modeling results of the NSAS. The loss in groundwater storage occurring in each of the four countries sharing the NSAS is calculated to assess the sustainability of using the NSAS as a water resource in each country. The overarching finding in this study is that NSAS is losing its groundwater storage at a very high rate. Also, it is found that Egypt is the fastest in losing its groundwater storage from the NSAS. This loss of groundwater storage in Egypt may not necessarily be resulting from in-country extractions because of the trans-boundary nature of this aquifer. The GRACE-based estimates are found to be close to available data and previous modeling results of the NSAS.