A simple model for lensing by black holes in galactic nuclei

The lensing properties of the Plummer model with a central point mass and external shear are derived, including the image multiplicities, critical curves and caustics. This provides a simple model for a flattened galaxy with a central supermassive black hole. For the Plummer model with black hole, the maximum number of images is four, provided the black hole mass is less than an upper bound which is calculated analytically. This introduces a method to constrain black hole masses by counting images, thus applicable at cosmological distance. With shear, the maximum number of images is six and we illustrate the occurrence of an astroid caustic and two metamorphoses.     

The effect of particle size and porosity on spectral contrast in the mid-infrared

Contrary to previous work, we find that the decreasing intensity of fundamental molecular vibration bands with decreasing particle size is due primarily to increasing porosity of the finer particle size ranges, rather than to particle size per se. This implies that laser reflectance measurements from orbiting spacecraft should avoid loss of spectral contrast for fine particulate surfaces, because such measurements near zero phase angle will benefit from the opposition effect.     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

The intracluster iron distribution around 4C+55.16

We report on the metal distribution in the intracluster medium around the radio galaxy 4C+55.16     observed with the Chandra X-ray Observatory . The radial metallicity profile shows a dramatic change at 10 arcsec (∼50 kpc) in radius from half solar to twice solar at inner radii. Also found was a plume-like feature located at ∼3 arcsec to the south-west of the centre of the galaxy, which is mostly accounted for by a strong enhancement of iron L emission. The X-ray spectrum of the plume is characterized by the metal abundance pattern of Type Ia supernovae (SNeIa), i.e. large ratios of Fe to α elements, with the iron metallicity being unusually high at     solar (90 per cent error). How the plume has been formed is not entirely clear. The inhomogeneous iron distribution suggested in this cluster provides important clues to understanding the metal enrichment process of the cluster medium.     

Dissolution and depletion of ferromagnesian minerals from Holocene tephra layers in an acid bog,New Zealand,and implications for tephra correlation

This study examines the depletion of ferromagnesian silicate minerals from a sequence of thin, distal, mainly rhyolitic tephra layers of Holocene age preserved in an acid peat bog (Kopouatai), North Island, New Zealand. The rate of such depletion has been fast, as indicated by the complete loss of biotite from one tephra layer (Kaharoa Tephra), in which it is normally dominant, in only ca. 770 yr. Chemical dissolution is advocated as the likely cause for the depletion, with amphiboles and other mineral grains commonly showing etch pits, microcaves, and other characteristic surface solution features. Theoretical thermodynamic and kinetic models show a marked increase in the rate of dissolution of all ferromagnesian minerals under conditions of low pH (< 4), but that where silica concentrations in solution are high the relative proportions of minerals remaining are unaffected. However, where concentrations of dissolved silica are low, as in most bog environments, the relative proportions of ferromagnesian minerals are affected as well as absolute amounts being decreased. Amphiboles are depleted relative to pyroxenes, consistent with kinetic studies. The results show that the identification and correlation of tephras on the basis of relative abundances of ferromagnesian minerals alone may be unreliable, and emphasise the need to use multiple criteria in such studies.     

A ROSAT WFC observation of SW UMa: the EUV behaviour of dwarf novae in superoutburst explained

During re-processing and analysis of the entire ROSAT Wide Field Camera (WFC) pointed observations data base, we discovered a serendipitous, off-axis detection of the cataclysmic variable SW UMa at the onset of its 1997 October superoutburst. Although long outbursts in this SU UMa-type system are known to occur every ∼ 450 d, none had ever been previously observed in the extreme ultra-violet (EUV) by ROSAT . The WFC observations began just ≈13 hr after the optical rise was detected. With a peak count rate of ∼ 4.5 count s⁻¹ in the S1 filter, SW UMa was temporarily the third brightest object in the sky in this waveband. Over the next ≈19 hr the measured EUV flux dropped to < 2 count s⁻¹, while the optical brightness remained essentially static at m _v∼11 . Similar behaviour has also been recently reported in the EUV light curve of the related SU UMa-type binary OY Car during superoutburst, as reported by Mauche & Raymond. In contrast, U Gem-type dwarf novae show no such early EUV dip during normal outbursts. Therefore, this feature may be common in superoutbursts of SU UMa-like systems. We expand on ideas first put forward by Osaki and Mauche & Raymond and offer an explanation for this behaviour by examining the interplay between the thermal and tidal instabilities that affect the accretion discs in these systems.     

Automatic Determination of Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Using Neural Networks and Instance-Based Machine Learning

In this article we show how machine learning methods can beeffectively applied to the problem of automatically predictingstellar atmospheric parameters from spectral information, a veryimportant problem in stellar astronomy. We apply feedforwardneural networks, Kohonen's self-organizing maps andlocally-weighted regression to predict the stellar atmosphericparameters effective temperature, surface gravity and metallicityfrom spectral indices. Our experimental results show that thethree methods are capable of predicting the parameters with verygood accuracy. Locally weighted regression gives slightly betterresults than the other methods using the original dataset asinput, while self-organizing maps outperform the other methods when significant amounts of noise are added. We also implemented a heterogeneous ensemble of predictors, combining the results given by the three algorithms. This ensemble yields better results than any of the three algorithms alone, using both the original and the noisy data.     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001