Research on the loss of group residential buildings under fierce winds

The prediction and assessment of the loss of group residential buildings under fierce winds are not only an important but also a very basic work. Many rural buildings, especially situated in southeastern of China, have suffered great damage and losses during such wind events in past 10 years. One new methodology is proposed in this study in order to estimate and evaluate the loss reasonably based on group building types and distribution, wind intensities and directions. This methodology comprehensively considers the mechanisms of interaction between the roof tiles, roof panels, doors and windows, which are more likely damaged seriously during fierce winds, the physical properties of those components, the wind pressure coefficients on the surface of group buildings in different wind directions, etc. Then Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the damage of group residential buildings under simulated fluctuating winds with different speeds and measured typhoon records. The simulation results indicate that our proposed quantified assessment method can be utilized for official, developers, architects, designers and homeowners to estimate and mitigate the losses that might be experienced during wind-related disasters either pre- or post-construction.     

改进的能量守恒方法及其在CHAMP重力场恢复中的应用

An efficient method for gravity field determination from CHAMP orbits and accelerometer data is referred to as the energy balance approach. A new CHAMP gravity field recovery strategy based on the improved energy balance approach IS developed in this paper. The method simultaneously solves the spherical harmonic coefficients, daily Integration constant, scale and bias parameters. Two 60 degree and order gravitational potential models, XISM-CHAMPO1S from the classical energy balance approach, and XISM-CHAMPO2S from the improved energy balance, are determined using about one year＇s worth of CHAMP kinematic orbits from TUM and accelerometer data from GFZ. Comparisons among XISM-CHAMPO1S, XISM-CHAMPO2S, EIGEN-CGO3C, EIGEN-CHAMPO3S, EIGEN2, ENIGNIS and EGM96 are made. The results show that the XISM-CHAMPO2S model is more accurate than EGM96, EIGENIS, EIGEN2 and XISM-CHAMPO1S at the same degree and order, and has almost the same accuracy as EIGEN-CHAMPO3S.     

The relationship between significant wave height and Indian Ocean Dipole in the equatorial North Indian Ocean

Based on reanalysis data, we find that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) plays an important role in the variability of wave climate in the equatorial Northern Indian Ocean (NIO). Significant wave height (SWH) in the equatorial NIO, especially over the waters southeast to Sri Lanka, exhibits strong interannual variations. SWH anomalies in the waters southeast to Sri Lanka correlate well with dipole mode index (DMI) during both summer and autumn. Negative SWH anomalies occur over the oceanic area southeast to Sri Lanka during positive IOD events and vary with different types of IOD. During positive prolonged (unseasonable) IOD, the SWH anomalies are the strongest in autumn (summer); while during positive normal IOD, the SWH anomalies are weak in both summer and autumn. Strong easterly wind anomalies over the southeast oceanic area of Sri Lanka during positive IOD events weaken the original equatorial westerly wind stress, which leads to the decrease in wind-sea waves. The longer wave period during positive IOD events further confirms less wind-sea waves. The SWH anomaly pattern during negative IOD events is nearly opposite to that during positive IOD events.     

Bottom pressure change associated with the 2004–2005 large meander of the Kuroshio south of Japan

A large meander of the Kuroshio was generated in the region off the southern coast of Japan in August 2004 and continued until approximately July 2005. The formation and decay of the large-meander (LM) path was observed by bottom pressure (BP) sensors installed on inverted echo sounders (PIESs) and a seismic observing system off Shikoku. The variation in BP was examined focusing on the development, persistence, and decay of the LM path. The BP was found to be depressed associated with a Kuroshio path disturbance, called a small meander, and this BP depression led the sea surface height (SSH) depression by up to approximately two months. The temporal phase shift between the sea surface and deep disturbances was significantly greater than those of other small meanders that did not develop into large meanders. After the formation of the LM path, the BP beneath the Kuroshio increased with a lag of approximately two months behind the SSH elevation along with the upward displacement of the main thermocline. The increase in BP is associated with that of the positive southward BP gradient anomaly, i.e., the eastward deep Kuroshio current anomaly, which suggests an enhancement of the topographic steering and stability of the LM path. This is consistent with the fact that no small meanders occurred in the early LM period from late July 2004 to late January 2005.     

Enhancing the Forecasting of Monthly Streamflow in the Main Key Stations of the River Nile Basin

Predicting the streamflow of rivers can have a significant economic impact, as this can help in agricultural water management and in providing protection from water shortages and possible flood damage. In this study, two statistical models have been used; Deseasonalized Autoregressive moving average model (DARMA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict monthly streamflow which important for reservoir operation policy using different time scale, monthly and 1/3 monthly (ten-days) flow data for River Nile basin at five key stations. The streamflow series is deseasonalized at different time scale and then an appropriate nonseasonal stochastic DARMA (p, q) models are built by using the plots of Partial Auto Correlation Function (PACF) to determine the order (p) of DARMA model. Then the deseasonalized data for key stations are used as input to ANN models with lags equals to the order (p) of DARMA model. The performance of ANN and DARMA models are compared using statistical methods. The results show that the developed model (using 1/3 monthly (ten-days) and ANN) has the best performance to predict monthly streamflow at all key stations. The results also show that the relative error in the developed model result did not exceed 9% while in the traditional models reach to 68% in the flood months in the testing period. The result also indicates that ANN has considerable potential for river flow forecasting.     

Forecasting Wave Amplitudes after the Arrival of a Tsunami

The destructive Pacific Ocean tsunami generated off the east coast of Honshu, Japan, on 11 March 2011 prompted the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (WCATWC) to issue a tsunami warning and advisory for the coastal regions of Alaska, British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California. Estimating the length of time the warning or advisory would remain in effect proved difficult. To address this problem, the WCATWC developed a technique to estimate the amplitude decay of a tsunami recorded at tide stations within the Warning Center’s Area of Responsibly (AOR). At many sites along the West Coast of North America, the tsunami wave amplitudes will decay exponentially following the arrival of the maximum wave (Mofjeld et al., Nat Hazards 22:71–89, 2000). To estimate the time it will take before wave amplitudes drop to safe levels, the real-time tide gauge data are filtered to remove the effects of tidal variations. The analytic envelope is computed and a 2 h sequence of amplitude values following the tsunami peak is used to obtain a least squares fit to an exponential function. This yields a decay curve which is then combined with an average West Coast decay function to provide an initial tsunami amplitude-duration forecast. This information may then be provided to emergency managers to assist with response planning.     

Enhancement of Seismic Data Processing and Interpretation of Fracture Zones on the Upper Part of Granitic Basement in Cuu Long Basin,Vietnam

The fractured granite basement is the primary oil and gas reservoir in the Cuu Long Basin, Vietnam. Due to the complexity of this nonlayered unconventional target, combined with complicated fault and fracture systems, the seismic data quality near and within the basement section is very low. For this reason, it is important to apply improved seismic data processing workflows, filtering and migration techniques, as wells as attribute processing methods to enhance the imaging quality.Our studies show that applying different types of filters, including the f-k, Radon transform and Tau-P, improves signal to noise ratio, removing multiples, revealing basement’s top and its related fractured and fault zones. In addition, the application of multi-arrival-solution migration algorithms, such as Kirchhoff Migration and Controlled Beam Migration, provides improved imaging for identifying basement top and faults and fractures within the basement. Furthermore, the application of seismic attributes such as curvature, apparent dip, or energy gradient, is important in locating faults and fractures, whereas mapping of intensity and orientation of such structures assists the delineation of “sweet spots” and assists the planning of exploration.     

Identifying rock blocks based on hierarchical rock-mass structure model

Rock-masses are divided into many closed blocks by deterministic and stochastic discontinuities and engineering interfaces in complex rock-mass engineering. Determining the sizes, shapes, and adjacent relations of blocks is important for stability analysis of fractured rock masses. Here we propose an algorithm for identifying spatial blocks based on a hierarchical 3D Rock-mass Structure Model (RSM). First, a model is built composed of deterministic discontinuities, engineering interfaces, and the earth’s su...     

Investigating dynamic coupling in geospace through the combined use of modeling,simulations and data analysis

Comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the coupled solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system is of utmost interest, both from the perspective of solar system astrophysics and geophysics research and from the perspective of space applications. The physical processes involved in the dynamical evolution of this complex coupled system are pertinent not only for the Sun-Earth connection, but also for major phenomena in other astrophysical systems. Furthermore, the conditions in geospace collectively termed space weather affect the ever increasing technological assets of mankind in space and therefore need to be understood, quantified and efficiently forecasted. The present collaborative paper communicates recent advances in geospace dynamic coupling research through modeling, simulations and data analysis and discusses future directions.     

Cladoceran remains in lake sediments: a comparison between plankton counts and sediment records

To evaluate the comparability of neo- and paleo-limnology, we made year-to-year as well as seasonal comparisons of contemporary zooplankton data and cladoceran remains in thick (9–42 mm) annual laminations in sediment of Lake Vesijärvi, southern Finland. We calculated the expected annual exuviae production of nine planktonic taxa in the water column using contemporary zooplankton records, and compared the value to the observed net accumulation of their remains in deep sediment for 7 years. Although all of the species studied occur commonly in the lake pelagic zone, deposition of remains differed significantly among taxa. The observed accumulation of three Bosmina species and Chydorus sphaericus was similar to or exceeded expected values, suggesting good preservation of their remains as well as focusing of sediment into the deepest part of the lake. The accumulation of Limnosida and Leptodora remains exceeded expected values several fold, suggesting under-representation of these species in pelagic plankton samples, as well as efficient transportation and spatial averaging of their remains in the sediment. Daphnia, Diaphanosoma, and Ceriodaphnia were clearly under-represented in the sediment due to poor preservation of their remains and use of a 50-μm sieve in sediment processing. Thus, sieving should be taken into account as a possible source of bias. Correlation between relative abundances of all species in the sediment and in the plankton was weak (r _s = 0.54, P < 0.001), but for well-preserved species, the correlation was strong (r _s = 0.91, P < 0.001). Inter-annual variation in the deposition of remains suggested that resuspension and sediment focusing may vary between years, thus making it difficult to interpret absolute abundances, even though the deepest part of the basin shows clear varve formation and seasonality is well recorded. Detailed study of the uppermost lamination showed the seasonal succession of a cladoceran community within an annual varve as well as differences in the seasonality and intensity of ephippia production among the species. We recommend that results of cladoceran analyses be expressed in several ways (relative abundances, per unit dry weight, per unit organic matter, and as net accumulation values) before drawing final conclusions, as each approach may reveal a different aspect of the deposition process. In addition, sedimentation differences between epilimnetic and hypolimnetic species should be considered in stratified lakes.