Problems of modeling climate and climate change

The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible.     

Seasonal variations in river discharge and nutrient export to a Northeastern Pacific estuary

Seasonal variations in dissolved nitrogen and silica loadings were related to seasonal variability in river discharge. Dissolved nutrient concentrations measured weekly at three stations in the Yaquina River, Oregon from 1999 through 2001, and then monthly in 2002 were used as the basis for developing a nutrient loading regression as part of a larger agency program for evaluating nutrient processes. Because realistic models of nutrient transport require dense data sets to capture both long and short term fluctuations in nutrient concentrations, data at one freshwater station also were collected hourly for the same years using an in-stream monitor.The effects of storm events on dissolved nutrient transport were examined during three storms, including one in a high rainfall-discharge year, and two in average years, one of which followed a drought year. During the drought year (WY2001), total dissolved nitrate input was considerably less than in wetter years. Dissolved nitrate concentrations, however, were unusually high in the first winter storm runoff after the drought. The freshwater dissolved nitrate nitrogen loads varied from 40,380 kg day⁻¹ during a high-flow storm event to 0.11 kg day⁻¹ during late summer, low flow conditions. Dissolved silica dynamics differed from those of nitrate because during storm events, silica concentrations in the Yaquina River decreased to near zero at the storm height, probably due to dilution by near surface or overland flow, and later recovered.During the time interval studied, over 94% of the dissolved nitrate and silica were transported from the watershed during the winter months of greater rainfall, indicating that seasonality and river flow are primary factors when considering nutrient loadings from this watershed system.     

Uptake and transformation of C-labelled tributyltin chloride by the dog-whelk, nucella lapillus: Importance of absorption from the diet

The importance of the diet as a source of tributyltin (TBT) in Nucella lapillus was studied using [¹⁴C]tributyltin chloride. In N. lapillus provided with prelabelled mussels, Mytilus edulis, in labelled water (mean 20·5 ng/litre TBT) the rate of accumulation of total ¹⁴C was 2–3 times that in unfed animals. Owing to its degradation in the tissues of both fed and unfed animals, concentrations of [¹⁴C]TBT tended to reach a plateau after only 28 days. However, total concentrations of ¹⁴C were still increasing after 49 days. Under experimental conditions (15°C, ample food, no disturbance) the diet accounted for about 50% of the body burden of TBT in N. lapillus after 49 days exposure: concentration factors (dry tissue/water) for [¹⁴C]TBT in both male and female N. lapillus were similar at about 60 000 in fed and 30 000 in unfed animals. It is concluded that the diet may contribute less than half of the body burden of TBT found in natural populations subjected to life-long exposure.     

Semisubmersible response to transient ice forces

The paper presents an analytical and experimental study on the transient response of semisubmersibles to bergybit impact and the strength of bergybit ice to high strain-rate loadings. Two approaches have been proposed for the solution of the semisubmersible-bergybit interaction problem, one using the energy approach and the other using the conventional structural dynamics approach with initial velocity conditions. In addition the local behaviour of the impacted regions have been analysed for deformation and failure. Numerical results have been given for local behaviour of an impacted column and global behaviour of semisubmersible-bergybit system. Experimental study has been reported on the impact strength of iceberg ice at strain rates of 10⁻³, 10⁻² and 10⁻¹; the indentation impact strength of ice is found to be 3–4 times the unaixial compressive strength, at the same strain rate.     

Variability of hydrodynamic load predictions for a tension leg platform

A survey of diffraction/radiation analyses has been performed on behalf of the International Ship and Offshore Structures Congress, Committee I.2. This paper presents the results from the survey, including data from 17 organisations plotted in a common format. The variability of the computed hydrodynamic loads and responses is discussed, and it is concluded that there is a degree of uncertainty in results predicted on the basis of commonly used idealisations. Even in long period waves the variability between the computed results is considerable. To obtain reliable results at the shorter periods associated with heave, pitch and roll resonances of a deep water TLP, much finer meshes than those used by most of the participating organisations would be required.     

Comparative tolerance of two estuarine annelids to fluoranthene under normoxic and moderately hypoxic conditions

The tolerance of the oligochaete Monopylephorus rubroniveus and the polychaete Streblospio benedicti to sediment-associated fluoranthene was characterized under normoxic (>80% dissolved oxygen saturation) and moderately hypoxic ( approximately 50% dissolved oxygen saturation) conditions. Under both conditions, M. rubroniveus was highly tolerant of fluoranthene. Streblospio benedicti was considerably less tolerant of fluoranthene compared with M. rubroniveus. In addition, S. benedicti was less tolerant to fluoranthene under moderately hypoxic conditions, although no differences in sensitivity between the two oxygen conditions were observed based upon median lethal tissue residues. Bioaccumulation factors were higher for S. benedicti exposed to moderate hypoxia, suggesting that behavioral adaptations to compensate for the lower dissolved oxygen increased its bioaccumulation of fluoranthene. The results of the present laboratory study demonstrate that (1). changes in annelid tolerance to fluoranthene under varying oxygen conditions is a species-dependent phenomenon and (2). the differential tolerance of these two annelids to these combined stressors is consistent with their relative abundances in the field.     

Transformation of black-sea waters in the Sea of Marmara

The analysis is performed on the basis of comparison of the hydrological characteristics of prestrait regions of the Sea of Marmara. It is shown that, in summer, the Black-Sea waters are weakly mixed with the Mediterranean waters and the levels of salinity in the prestrait regions differ by 0.6–0.9‰. In winter, the indicated difference increases and the level of salinity near the entrance of Dardanelles reaches 29‰ and exceeds the level observed near the entrance of Bosporus by 5.5‰. In the analyzed regions, we observe local temperature maxima and minima near the interface of two water masses. This is explained by the presence of strong seasonal variations of temperature for the Black-Sea waters and their absence for the Mediterranean waters. The physical mechanisms responsible for the seasonal variations of the intensity of transformations of the Black-Sea waters are discussed. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 49–55, March–April, 2007.