Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

Paleo-stratigraphic permeability anisotropy controls supergene mimetic martite goethite deposits

The Hamersley Basin in Western Australia is one of the world's largest iron ore-producing regions, hosting two types of ore in banded iron formations: the high-grade martite-microplaty haematite and the supergene martite-goethite ores. With the high-grade ores almost entirely mined in the last decade, the supergene ores have more recently become the dominant resource of interest. Consequently, understanding the genesis of these martite-goethite deposits is a critical step for exploration. Yet, although various models exist, there is still no consensus on how these mineral resources formed, complicating the prediction of resource volume and location. Here, we show that the paleo-stratigraphic permeability anisotropy (with higher permeability along strata than across) controls the supergene mimetic enrichment transport process and, subsequently, the mineralisation distribution. We introduce a flow model that implicitly represents strata with a potential function that orients the permeability tensor accurately. The numerical solver uses automatic mesh adaptivity to deliver robust solutions. By accurately reproducing the mineralisation patterns in specific deposits, we identify and quantify the paleo-water table level and permeability anisotropy ratio as the two main controlling parameters for the mineralisation distribution. These insights provide new timing constraints for the mineralisation and the physical process of iron enrichment, suggesting much more potential mineralisation volume in the paleo-reconstructed zones than previously anticipated. These flow models allow us to draw geological conclusions with few a priori assumptions required for the genetic model in which the transport component is dominant. The predictive power of this methodology will allow targeted drilling to narrow down the prospective areas and lower exploration costs. Furthermore, the methodology's generality applies to other commodities in sedimentary basins involving supergene processes and will improve our understanding of various genetic models.     

Classification and regression tree theory application for assessment of building damage caused by surface deformation

A framework of applying the classification and regression tree theory (CART) for assessing the concrete building damage, caused by surface deformation, is proposed. The prognosis methods used for approximated building hazard estimation caused by continuous deformation are unsatisfactory. Variable local soil condition, changing intensity of the continuous deformation and variable resistance of the concrete buildings require the prognosis method adapted to the local condition. Terrains intensely induced by surface deformation are build-up with hundreds of building, so the method of their hazard estimation needs to be approximated and relatively fast. Therefore, promising might be addressing problems of reliable building damage risk assessment by application of classification and regression tree. The presented method based on the classification and regression tree theory enables to establish the most significant risk factors causing the building damage. Chosen risk factors underlie foundation for the concrete building damage prognosis method, which was caused by the surface continuous deformation. The established method enabled to assess the severity of building damage and was adapted to the local condition. High accuracy of shown approach is validated based on the independent data set of the buildings from the similar region. The research presented introduces the CART to determination of the risk of building damage with the emphasis on the grade of the building damage. Since presented method bases on the observations of the damages from the previous subsidence, the method might be applied to any local condition, where the previous subsidence is known.     

Twentieth century variability of surface humidity as the climate change indicator in Kraków (Southern Poland)

Air humidity is an element that plays an important role among meteorological processes within the atmosphere; however, the variety of humidity indices makes the global view of air moisture changes difficult. Long-term variability of air humidity in Kraków was examined by time-series (1901–2000) analysis of vapour pressure and saturation deficit values and their characteristic days with the background of temperature and saturated vapour pressure changes. Long-term variability of air humidity in Kraków has been visible above all in variations of saturation deficit. It should be connected with the contemporary temperature growth and the city development as the atmospheric water vapour content (described by vapour pressure) becomes relatively stable (with no significant tendencies). The parameter showed well-marked trends over the examined period. The growth of saturation deficit values predominated in the warm half of a year (above all in August: an increase in SD value by 3.0 hPa per century). Apart from atmospheric circulation variability, gradual rise in the number of inhabitants and higher development density contributed to the decline in the city’s air humidity; however, the causes of changes in air humidity should be also attributed to natural factors, mainly to variation of air circulation reinforced by the operation of anthropogenic factors. Using air humidity as the indicator, the results that confirm climatic fluctuations in central Europe in the twentieth century obtained earlier were verified and some new aspects of present climate change were given.