Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.     

Lead isotopes of the carbonate-hosted Kabwe, Tsumeb, and Kipushi Pb-Zn-Cu sulphide deposits in relation to Pan African orogenesis in the Damaran-Lufilian Fold Belt of Central Africa

Lead isotope ratios of galena from the carbonate-hosted massive sulphide deposits of Kabwe (Pb-Zn) and Tsumeb (Pb-Zn-Cu) in Zambia and Namibia, respectively, have been measured and found to be homogeneous and characteristic of upper crustal source rocks. Kabwe galena has average isotope ratios of ^206/204Pb = 17.997 ± 0.007, ^207/204Pb = 15.713 ± 0.010 and ^208/204Pb = 38.410 ± 0.033. Tsumeb galena has slightly higher ^206/204Pb (18.112 ± 0.035) and slightly lower ^207/204Pb (15.674 ± 0.016) and ^208/204Pb (38.276 ± 0.073) ratios than Kabwe galena. The isotopic differences are attributed to local differences in the age and composition of the respective source rocks for Kabwe and Tsumeb. The homogeneity of the ore lead in the two epigenetic deposits suggests lead sources of uniform isotopic composition or, alternatively, thorough mixing of lead derived from sources with relatively similar isotopic compositions. Both deposits have relatively high ²³⁸U/²⁰⁴Pb ratios of 10.31 and 10.09 for Kabwe and Tsumeb galenas, respectively. These isotope ratios are considered to be typical of the upper continental crust in the Damaran-Lufilian orogenic belt, as also indicated by basement rocks and Cu-Co sulphides in stratiform Katangan metasediments which have a mean μ-value of 10.25 ± 0.12 in the Copperbelt region of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire). The ²³²Th/²⁰⁴Pb isotope ratios of 43.08 and 40.42 for Kabwe and Tsumeb suggest Th-enriched source regions with ²³²Th/²³⁵U (κ-values) of 4.18 and 4.01, respectively. Model isotopic ages determined for the Kabwe (680 Ma) and Tsumeb (530 Ma) deposits indicate that the timing of the mineralisation was probably related to phases of orogenic activity associated with the Pan-African Lufilian and Damaran orogenies, respectively. Galena from the carbonate-hosted Kipushi Cu-Pb-Zn massive sulphide deposit in the Congo also has homogeneous lead isotope ratios, but its isotopic composition is comparable to that of the average global lead evolution curve for conformable massive sulphide deposits. The μ (9.84) and κ (3.69) values indicate a significant mantle component, and the isotopic age of the Kipushi deposit (456 Ma) suggests that the emplacement of the mineralisation was related to a post-tectonic phase of igneous activity in the Lufilian belt. The isotope ratios (^206/204Pb, ^207/204Pb, ^208/204Pb) of the three deposits are markedly different from the heterogeneous lead ratios of the Katangan Cu-Co stratiform mineralisation of the Copperbelt as well as those of the volcanogenic Nampundwe massive pyrite deposit in the Zambezi belt which typically define radiogenic linear trends on lead-lead plots. The host-rock dolomite of the Kabwe deposit also has homogeneous lead isotope ratios identical to the ore galena. This observation indicates contamination of the Kabwe Dolomite Formation with ore lead during mineralisation. Received: 8 September 1997 / Accepted: 21 August 1998     

Taxonomic revision of Cylindroporella ? lusitanica Ramalho, 1970: In search for the origins of the Family Dasycladaceae

A study of new material of Cylindroporella ? lusitanica Ramalho, 1970, from the Upper Jurassic (Oxfordian) strata of Portugal identified features not observed previously. This includes the pattern of its laterals, including the gametophores. The algal body plan is unique and justifies the taxonomic reassessment of this species and the introduction of Barattoloporellopsis n. gen. Furthermore this species is most likely a primitive Dasycladaceae, a “missing link” between the modern ones (starting from the Cretaceous times) and their Jurassic ancestors.     

Simulating rainfall time-series: how to account for statistical variability at multiple scales?

Daily rainfall is a complex signal exhibiting alternation of dry and wet states, seasonal fluctuations and an irregular behavior at multiple scales that cannot be preserved by stationary stochastic simulation models. In this paper, we try to investigate some of the strategies devoted to preserve these features by comparing two recent algorithms for stochastic rainfall simulation: the first one is the modified Markov model, belonging to the family of Markov-chain based techniques, which introduces non-stationarity in the chain parameters to preserve the long-term behavior of rainfall. The second technique is direct sampling, based on multiple-point statistics, which aims at simulating a complex statistical structure by reproducing the same data patterns found in a training data set. The two techniques are compared by first simulating a synthetic daily rainfall time-series showing a highly irregular alternation of two regimes and then a real rainfall data set. This comparison allows analyzing the efficiency of different elements characterizing the two techniques, such as the application of a variable time dependence, the adaptive kernel smoothing or the use of low-frequency rainfall covariates. The results suggest, under different data availability scenarios, which of these elements are more appropriate to represent the rainfall amount probability distribution at different scales, the annual seasonality, the dry-wet temporal pattern, and the persistence of the rainfall events.     

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany—version 2016, considering the range of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variability

The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of \(v_{S30}\) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.     

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.     

The shape of the seismic response interaction diagram: The effect of combination rules in response spectrum analysis

This paper deals with the construction of seismic response interaction diagrams that show the correlation of multiple responses and are important to determine the critical combination of modal responses. Many design problems, such as column design under combined axial force and bending moments, fall into this category. We address general modal and multicomponent combination rules and study their effect on the shape of the response interaction diagrams, thus extending previous work done for quadratic combination rules. Special attention is given to multilinear combination rules which lead to polyhedral shapes. Having developed efficient methods to deal with polyhedral shapes, we explore the idea of adopting a multilinear modal combination rule to compose with a multicomponent percentage rule.     

How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.