Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.     

The photoelectron spectra of some Tl-Sb sulphosalts

The results of X-ray induced photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) experiments on several phases of the ternary system Tl-Sb-S are reported. The binding energies of the inner S, Sb and Tl electrons increase with increasing quantities of Sb and decreasing amounts of Tl in these compounds. This is explained by the influences of the proportions of the bonded metals on the effective electron affinity of S. The higher proportions of the more electronegative element bonded to S cause the increase of its effective electron affinity. The results for Tl₂S (carlinite), Tl₃SbS₃, TlSbS₂ (weissbergite), TlAsS₂ (lorandite) and Sb₂S₃ (antimonite) can be interpreted in this way. The results for Tl₄S₃ suggest a predominantly covalent character of bonding for both Tl(III) and Tl(I), which are present in this sulfide. From comparison with Tl₃SbS₄ it could be supposed that Tl(III)-S bond has a more covalent character than Sb(V)-S bond. The results for Tl₃SbS₄ are in agreement with crystal structure data and the results of Moessbauer spectroscopy. For AsS (realgar) the binding energies of the inner electrons of As and S significantly increase, showing that the electrons in molecular orbitals are less strongly bonded to individual atoms, as compared to pure elements. The results for the amorphous TlSb₅S₈ (corresponding in composition to parapierrotite) suggest that in amorphous compound the Tl-S bonding is stronger and the coordination of Tl more regular than in a crystalline one.     

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Petrogenetic relationships of acid and basic rocks in iceland: Sr-isotopes and rare-earth elements in late and postglacial volcanics

Strontium isotope ratios and rare-earth element abundances have been measured in acid, intermediate and basic rocks from three late to postglacial volcanic complexes, and several other postglacial basalts in Iceland. Late and postglacial basalts in Iceland have been generated from a source region which is essentially homogeneous with respect to⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr. The mean⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio for the basalts analysed is 0.70328 and the range is from 0.70317 ± 6to0.70334 ± 5 (2σ).Acid rocks from the Kerlinganfjöll and Namafjall volcanic complexes have⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios which are indistinguishable from analysed basalts from the same complexes. However, intermediate and acid rocks from the Torfajökull complex have significantly higher⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and could not have been derived by fractional crystallization from basaltic magmas similar to those found in the same complex. These latter rocks have most probably been produced by remelting of Tertiary gabbroic rocks in Layer 3. Most of the basalts analysed have higher total rare-earth element abundances than typical dredged ocean-ridge tholeiites, and show less light rare-earth depletion. Intermediate and acid compositions show overall higher abundances and light rare-earth enrichments. The measured rare-earth abundances are compared with abundances generated by differential partial melting of various model source regions.It is shown that both the tholeiitic and alkali basalt compositions could be generated from the same source material by different degrees of partial melting. Variable partial melting of gabbroic material may account for the rare-earth element abundances of both the rhyolitic rocks (small degrees of melting) and the intermediate rocks (more extensive melting).     

A hyperspectral experiment over tropical forests based on the EO-1 orbit change and PROSAIL simulation

ABSTRACT

We designed a unique hyperspectral experiment from the Earth Observing One (EO-1) orbit change to evaluate solar illumination effects over tropical forests in Brazil. Ten nadir-viewing Hyperion images collected over a fixed site and period of the year (July to August) were selected for analysis. We evaluated variations in reflectance and in 16 narrowband vegetation indices (VIs) with increasing solar zenith angle (SZA) from the pre-drift (2004–2008) to the EO-1 drift period (2011–2016). To detect changes in reflectance and shadows, we applied spectral mixture analysis (SMA) and principal component analysis (PCA) and calculated the similarity spectral angle (θ) between the vegetation spectra measured with variable SZA. The magnitude of the illumination effects was also evaluated from change-point analysis and nonparametric Mann-Whitney U tests applied over the time series. Finally, we complemented our experiment using the PROSAIL model to simulate the VIs variation with increasing SZA resultant from satellite drift. The results showed significant changes in Hyperion reflectance and VIs, especially when the EO-1 crossed the study area at earlier times and larger SZA in 2015 (9:05 a.m.; SZA = 59°) and 2016 (8:30 a.m.; SZA = 67°). Compared to the pre-drift period (10:30 a.m.; SZA = 45°), the SZA differences of 14° (2015) and 22° (2016) increased the shade fractions and decreased the vegetation brightness. PCA separated the pre-drift and drift reflectance datasets, showing shifts in scores due to changes in brightness. θ increased with SZA, indicating changes in the shape of the vegetation spectra with drift. For most VIs, the change-point analysis indicated 2015 (SZA = 59°) as the predominant year of detected changes. Compared to the EO-1 original orbit, the Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI), Anthocyanin Reflectance Index (ARI) and Structure Insensitive Pigment Index (SIPI) presented the largest positive changes during drift, while the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) had the largest negative changes. The effect size of the illumination geometry on these VIs was large, as indicated by increasing values of the Cohen’s r metric toward 2016. The anisotropy of the Hyperion VIs was generally consistent with that from PROSAIL in the simulated pre-drift and drift periods. Focusing on structural indices, it affected the relationships between VIs and simulated leaf area index (LAI) at large SZA.     

Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California

The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.     

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

Observations of Electromagnetically Coupled Dust in the Jovian Magnetosphere

We report on dust measurements obtained during the seventh orbit of the Galileo spacecraft about Jupiter. The most prominent features observed are highly time variable dust streams recorded throughout the Jovian system. The impact rate varied by more than an order of magnitude with a 5 and 10 hour periodicity, which shows a correlation with Galileo's position relative to the Jovian magnetic field. This behavior can be qualitatively explained by strong coupling of nanometer-sized dust to the Jovian magnetic field. In addition to the 5 and 10 h periodicities, a longer period which is compatible with Io's orbital period is evident in the dust impact rate. This feature indicates that Io most likely is the source of the dust streams. During a close (3,095 km altitude) flyby at Ganymede on 5 April 1997 an enhanced rate of dust impacts has been observed, which suggests that Ganymede is a source of ejecta particles. Within a distance of about 25 R_J(Jupiter radius, R_J= 71,492 km) from Jupiter impacts of micrometer-sized particles have been recorded which could be particles on bound orbits about Jupiter. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The influence of sea waves on the wind profile

From wind profile and wave measurements performed during the JONSWAP II experiment, relations between the dimensionless profile slope and the significant wave height are derived. It is shown that the wind profile is distorted by the waves especially in the vicinity of the water surface. The wave influence on the profile seems to be restricted to heights below about three wave heights. Above this level, the dimensionless profile slope is an approximately constant value corresponding to a drag coefficient of about 1.15 × 10^–3.