Impact of projected climate change on hydrologic regime of the Upper Paraguay River basin

We present an assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrologic regime of the 600,000 km² Upper Paraguay River basin, located in central South America based on predictions of 20 Atmospheric/Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We considered two climate change scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and two 30-years time intervals centered at 2030 and 2070. Projected temperature and precipitation anomalies estimated by the AOGCMs for the study site are spatially downscaled. Time series of projected temperature and precipitation were estimated using the delta change approach. These time series were used as input to a detailed coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model aiming to estimate projected streamflow in climate change scenarios at several control points in the basin. Results show that impacts on streamflow are highly dependent on the AOGCM used to obtain the climate predictions. Patterns of temperature increase persist over the entire year for almost all AOGCMs resulting in an increase in the evapotranspiration rate of the hydrological model. The precipitation anomalies show large dispersion, being projected as either an increase or decrease in precipitation rates. Based on these inputs, results from the coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model show nearly one half of projections as increasing river discharge, and other half as decreasing river discharge. If the mean or median of the predictions is considered, no discernible change in river discharge should be expected, despite the dispersion among results of the AOGCMs that reached +/?10 % in the short horizon and +/? 20 % in the long horizon, at several control points.     

L1 norm inversion method for deconvolution in attenuating media

In order to perform a good pulse compression, the conventional spike deconvolution method requires that the wavelet is stationary. However, this requirement is never reached since the seismic wave always suffers high‐frequency attenuation and dispersion as it propagates in real materials. Due to this issue, the data need to pass through some kind of inverse‐Q filter. Most methods attempt to correct the attenuation effect by applying greater gains for high‐frequency components of the signal. The problem with this procedure is that it generally boosts high‐frequency noise. In order to deal with this problem, we present a new inversion method designed to estimate the reflectivity function in attenuating media. The key feature of the proposed method is the use of the least absolute error (L1 norm) to define both the data and model error in the objective functional. The L1 norm is more immune to noise when compared to the usual L2 one, especially when the data are contaminated by discrepant sample values. It also favours sparse reflectivity when used to define the model error in regularization of the inverse problem and also increases the resolution, since an efficient pulse compression is attained. Tests on synthetic and real data demonstrate the efficacy of the method in raising the resolution of the seismic signal without boosting its noise component.     

A continuous stable isotope record from the penultimate glacial maximum to the Last Interglacial (159–121 ka) from Tana Che Urla Cave (Apuan Alps,central Italy)

Relatively few radiometrically dated records are available for the central Mediterranean spanning the marine oxygen isotope stage 6–5 (MIS 6–5) transition and the first part of the Last Interglacial. Two flowstone cores from Tana che Urla Cave (TCU, central Italy), constrained by 19 U/Th ages, preserve an interval of continuous speleothem deposition between ca. 159 and 121 ka. A multiproxy record (δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C, growth rate and petrographic changes) obtained from this flowstone preserves significant regional-scale hydrological changes through the glacial/interglacial transition and multi-centennial variability (interpreted as alternations between wetter and drier periods) within both glacial and interglacial stages. The glacial stage shows a wetter period between ca. 154 and 152 ka, while the early to middle Last Interglacial period shows several drying events at ca. 129, 126 and 122 ka, which can be placed in the wider context of climatic instability emerging from North Atlantic marine and NW European terrestrial records. The TCU record also provides important insights into the evolution of local environmental conditions (i.e. soil development) in response to regional and global-scale climate events.     

Nowcasting and real-time monitoring of heavy rainfall events inducing flash-floods: an application to Phlegraean area (Central-Southern Italy)

Natural Hazards - Severe weather events cause considerable disruptions to social and economic activities. Thus, high-precision meteorological products and services should be provided in order to...     

Drainage network geometry versus tectonics in the Argentera Massif (French–Italian Alps)

The Argentera Massif (French–Italian Alps), with its uniform lithology, was selected to evaluate how known Plio–Pleistocene tectonics have conditioned the drainage network geometry. The drainage network was automatically derived and ordered from a 10 m-resolution DEM. On hillshade images, alignments of morphological features were identified. The Massif was subdivided into 22 domains of 50 km² within which the directions of every river channel segment and the direction of the aligned morphological features were compared and contrasted with the strike of tectonic structures measured in the field. Results suggest that the Argentera drainage system is variously controlled by recent tectonics, depending on the Massif sector taken into account. In the NW sector, the vertical uplift is less because the strain has been accommodated in an oblique direction along a lateral thrust. In the SE sector, strain in a predominantly vertical direction along a frontal thrust has resulted in a major vertical displacement. Accordingly, the NW sector is characterized by (i) a strong geometric relationship between the main tectonic structures and the directions of river channels, (ii) longitudinal main rivers bordering the Massif, and (iii) a general trellis pattern within the domains.In the SE sector, the prolonged uplift has forced an original longitudinal drainage system to develop as a transverse system. This change has occurred by means of fluvial captures that have been identified by the presence of windgaps, fluvial elbows and knickpoints. At the domain scale, intense uplift of the SE sector has prompted the drainage pattern to evolve as a dendritic type with no clear influence of structure in the channel orientations.     

Environmental control on early life stages of flatfishes in the Lima Estuary (NW Portugal)

Several flatfishes spawn in oceanic waters and pelagic larvae are transported inshore to settle in the nursery areas, usually estuaries, where they remain during their juvenile life. Nursery areas appear as extremely important habitats, not only for juveniles but also for the earlier planktonic larval fish. Yet, the majority of nursery studies tend to focus only on one development stage, missing an integrative approach of the entire early life that fishes spent within a nursery ground. Thus, the present study assessed the influence of environmental parameters on the dynamics of the larval and juvenile flatfishes, throughout their nursery life in the Lima Estuary. Between April 2002 and April 2004, fortnightly subsurface ichthyoplankton samples were collected and juveniles were collected from October 2003 until September 2005. Larval assemblages comprised nine flatfish species, while only six were observed among the juvenile assemblages. Solea senegalensis and Platichthys flesus were the most abundant species of both fractions of the Lima Estuary flatfishes. Larval flatfish assemblages varied seasonally, without relevant differences between lower and middle estuary. Platichthys flesus dominated the spring samples and summer and autumn periods were characterized by an increase of overall abundance and diversity of larval flatfishes, mainly S. senegalensis, associated with temperature increase and reduced river flow. On the contrary, during the winter abundance sharply decreased, as a consequence of higher river run-off that might compromised the immigration of incompetent marine larvae. Juvenile flatfishes were more abundant in the middle and upper areas of the estuary, but the species richness was higher near the river mouth. Sediment type, distance from the river mouth, salinity, temperature and dissolved oxygen were identified as the main environmental factors structuring the juvenile flatfish assemblages. Juveniles were spatially discrete, with the most abundant species S. senegalensis and P. flesus associated with the middle and upper estuary, while the remaining species were associated with the lower estuarine areas. The larval fraction exhibited distinct dynamics from the juvenile estuarine flatfish community. Larval flatfishes showed a strong seasonal structure mainly regulated by biological features as the spawning season and also by seasonal variations of water characteristics. On the other hand, juvenile flatfishes were markedly controlled by site specific characteristics such as sediments structure, distance from the river mouth and salinity regime. The present study emphasized the idea that the environmental control varies throughout the ontogenetic development, stressing the importance of integrating all the early life of a species in flatfish nursery studies.     

Sources of Mw 5+ earthquakes in northeastern Italy and western Slovenia: An updated view based on geological and seismological evidence

We present an overview of the seismogenic sources of northeastern Italy and western Slovenia, included in the last version of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS 3.0.2) and a new definition of the geometry of the Montello Source that will be included in the next release of the database. The seismogenic sources included in DISS are active faults capable of generating M_w > 5.5 earthquakes. We describe the method and the data used for their identification and characterization, discuss some implications for the seismic hazard and underline controversial points and open issues.In the Veneto–Friuli area (NE Italy), destructive earthquakes up to M_w 6.6 are generated by thrust faulting along N-dipping structures of the Eastern Southalpine Chain. Thrusting along the mountain front responds to about 2 mm/a of regional convergence, and it is associated with growing anticlines, tilted and uplifted Quaternary palaeolandsurfaces and forced drainage anomalies. In western Slovenia, dextral strike–slip faulting along the NW–SE trending structures of the Idrija Fault System dominates the seismic release. Activity and style of faulting are defined by recent earthquakes (e.g. the M_s 5.7, 1998 Bovec–Krn Mt. and the M_w 5.2, 2004 Kobarid earthquakes), while the related recent morphotectonic imprint is still a debated matter.We reinterpreted a large set of tectonic data and developed a segmentation model for the outermost Eastern Southalpine Chain thrust front. We also proposed the association of the four major shocks of the 1976 Friuli earthquake sequence with individual segments of three major thrust fronts. Although several sub-parallel active strike–slip strands exist in western Slovenia, we were able to positively identify only two segments of the Idrija Fault System. A comparison of the regional GPS velocity with long-term geological slip-rates of the seismogenic sources included in DISS shows that from a quarter to half of the deformation is absorbed along the external alignment of thrust faults in Veneto and western Friuli. The partitioning of the deformation in western Slovenia among the different strike–slip strands could not be quantified.     

Recruitment of flatfish species to an estuarine nursery habitat (Lima estuary, NW Iberian Peninsula)

One of the present concerns of fish biologists involves defining and identifying nursery habitats in the context of conservation and resource management strategies. Fish nursery studies usually report upon nursery occupation during the latter juvenile stages, despite the fact that recruitment to nurseries can start early in life, during the larval phase. Here we investigated the use of a temperate estuarine nursery area, the Lima estuary (NW Portugal), by initial development stages of flatfish species before and after metamorphosis, integrating the larval and juvenile phases. The Lima estuarine flatfish community comprised twelve taxa, seven of which were present as pelagic larvae, six as juveniles and three as adults. There was a general trend of increasing spring–summer abundance of both larvae and juveniles, followed by a sharp winter decrease, mainly of larval flatfishes. The Lima estuary was used by Solea senegalensis, Platichthys flesus and Solea solea as a nursery area, with direct settlement for the two first species. In contrast, indirect settlement was suggested for S. solea, with metamorphosis occurring outside the estuarine area. Estuarine recruitment of S. senegalensis varied between years, with young larvae occurring in the estuary throughout a prolonged period that lasted 6–9 months, corroborating the protracted spawning season. P. flesus, the second most abundant species, exhibited a typical spring estuarine recruitment, without inter-annual variations. Developed larvae arrived in the estuary during spring, whereas the 0-group juveniles emerged in the following summer period. The present study contributes new insight to our understanding of the economically important S. senegalensis, and highlights the importance of integrating the planktonic larval phase into traditional flatfish nursery studies.     

Study of the macrophyte assemblages and application of phytobenthic indices to assess the Ecological Status of the Marano‐Grado Lagoon (Italy)

Benthic macrophytes from 19 sites within the Marano‐Grado Lagoon were sampled in July 2007 in order to update the available information on the flora and vegetation and to assess the Ecological Status (ES) within the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Data on macrophytes were analysed using two phytobenthic indices (EEI and R‐MaQI) recently set up to evaluate the ecological status of transitional environments in the Mediterranean eco‐region. Notwithstanding the extension (c. 160 km²) that places this lagoon as the second largest Italian transitional environment, ecological studies are relatively few. The present research revealed a relatively poor flora, mainly characterized by the dominance of low‐diversity settlements of Ulvaceae. Moreover, the absence of intensive aquaculture activities and commercial big harbours, which account for the new species introductions recorded in other lagoons, limits the presence of non‐autochthonous species. The comparison with previous data ( Curiel et al. 1998 ) highlighted the reduction of macrophyte coverage and biomass, especially Ulvaceae stands, and an increase in species richness. In particular, there was evidence of a worsening of the area north of the Grado bridge. This area, which in the past was colonized by widespread angiosperm coverage, at present is almost lacking in vegetation. According to these observations, by applying both the phytobenthic indices available in the literature for the transitional environments, the Marano‐Grado Lagoon showed a ‘Good–High’ quality in the central part of the basin and near the lagoon inlets and a ‘Poor–Bad’ quality in the northern and southern areas. The evaluation of some physico‐chemical parameters, coupled with the distribution of the angiosperms, also allowed a first delineation of the main lagoon water bodies.