Influence of wind upon water quality in Liverpool Bay

Comprehensive distribution patterns of physical and chemical characteristics have been obtained from a series of cruises in Liverpool Bay. The marked feature of these distributions was their temporal variability, suggesting that the surface residual circulation is also temporally variable. The influence of wind stress upon the circulation pattern and hence water quality of this sea area is illustrated.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for ‘present’ climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea–ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within the climatic system, the inability of the model to reproduce the observed hemispheric mean temperature anomalies associated with these events indicates that external forcing must have been involved. Essentially the unforced climatic system is unable to sustain the generation of long-term climatic anomalies.     

Comparison of TL multiple aliquot, single grain GLSL SAR and C-14 ages for the Puritjarra, Australia, rock shelter

We report single-grain quartz luminescence ages for the Puritjarra rock shelter, with the aim of resolving an apparent discrepancy between ages obtained by ¹⁴C and a variety of luminescence methods, previously reported. Ages now found at all depths to 75 cm (ages to 30 ka) can be interpreted as largely resolving the differences. This implied caveat arises because single-grain methods are statistically inefficient. As a consequence, a degree of interpretation is inevitable in analysing the data. The emphasis in the present paper is an analysis making use of weighted histograms. The measurements by single grain OSL and ¹⁴C, including ABOX–SC, taken together, can be regarded as compatible. They indicate human occupation of the Puritjarra rock shelter at least as early as 30 ka BP.     

Modeling long-period noise in kinematic GPS applications

We develop and test an algorithm for modeling and removing elevation error in kinematic GPS trajectories in the context of a kinematic GPS survey of the salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. Noise in the kinematic trajectory ranges over 15 cm and is highly autocorrelated, resulting in significant contamination of the topographic signal. We solve for a noise model using crossover differences at trajectory intersections as constraints in a least-squares inversion. Validation of the model using multiple realizations of synthetic/simulated noise shows an average decrease in root-mean-square-error (RMSE) by a factor of four. Applying the model to data from the salar de Uyuni survey, we find that crossover differences drop by a factor of eight (from an RMSE of 5.6 to 0.7 cm), and previously obscured topographic features are revealed in a plan view of the corrected trajectory. We believe that this algorithm can be successfully adapted to other survey methods that employ kinematic GPS for positioning.     

Maquiladora Myths: Locational and Structural Change in Mexico's Export Manufacturing Industry

Trends in location, labor force, and procurement practices in maquiladoras are examined using recent data sources. A growing proportion of maquiladoras are selecting interior locations, south of the borderlands. Once dominated by young women, the labor force is rapidly approaching gender parity. While far below prevailing rates in the United States, maquiladora wages are comparable with equivalent manufacturing sectors in Mexico. Majority ownership of maquiladoras is split almost evenly between Mexico and the U.S., however, maquiladoras have failed to develop domestic sources of materials and parts and remain dependent on imported material inputs. As the North American Free Trade Agreement is phased in, the regulatory environment of maquiladoras will change but their role as low cost assembly specialists will persist.     

The ortho- to para- ratio of H2 in the starburst of NGC 253

We present measurements of several near-infrared emission lines from the nearby galaxy NGC 253. We have been able to measure four H₂ lines across the circumnuclear starburst, from which we estimate the ortho- to para- ratio of excited H₂ to be ∼2. This indicates that the bulk of the H₂ emission arises from photodissociation regions (PDRs), rather than from shocks. This is the case across the entire region of active star formation.
As the H₂ emission arises from PDRs, it is likely that the ratio of H₂ to Brγ (the bright hydrogen recombination line) is a measure of the relative geometry of O and B stars and PDRs. Towards the nucleus of NGC 253 the geometry is deduced to be tightly clustered O and B stars in a few giant H  II regions that are encompassed by PDRs. Away from the nuclear region, the geometry becomes that of PDRs bathed in a relatively diffuse ultraviolet radiation field.
The rotation curves of 1–0 S(1) and Brγ suggest that the ionized gas is tracing a kinetic system different from that of the molecular gas in NGC 253, particularly away from the nucleus.