Earthquake-resistant design according to the most unfavourable seismic direction under combined internal forces

In this study it has been shown that, in the case of linear theory, the combined internal forces corresponding to each seismic direction lie on an ellipsoid having internal forces chosen as the set of axes. A method is proposed to obtain the most unfavourable results easily, in the neighbourhood of the several unfavourable points without actually determining the ellipsoid. The design can be carried out using linear, as well as non-linear, theory. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the proposed method.     

Analyzing the occurrence of floods and droughts in connection with climate change in Punjab province,Pakistan

Natural Hazards - Frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are immensely changing throughout the world. This study aims to give insight into the changing climatic patterns leading to...     

A methodology for dynamic analysis of linear structure-foundation systems with local non-linearities

An efficient computational technique is presented for the dynamic analysis of large linear structural systems with local non-linearities. The earthquake response evaluation for many practical structures belongs to this class of problems. The technique provides a rational approach to the earthquake-resistant design of structure-foundation systems with predetermined non-linearities occurring along the structure-foundation interface. Various possibilities for base isolation systems are naturally fitted within the proposed framework. In particular, we address uplifting of the structure as a natural base isolation concept. We use the dynamic substructuring technique and an efficient numerical algorithm which accommodates non-proportional damping as a consistent way to reduce significantly the computational effort, which is in sharp contrast to the vast majority of ad-hoc simplified models used for the same purpose. A numerical example which demonstrates the vibration isolation effect when the uplifting of the concrete gravity dam occurs is also presented.     

Hydrologic response to future land use change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin by the end of 21st century

This study demonstrates the spatial variation in hydrologic processes across the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) by the end of 21st century, by ingesting FOREcasting Scenarios (FORE‐SCE) of Land‐use Change projections into a physics‐based hydrologic model—Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model is created for UMRB (440,000 km²), using the National Landcover Database of year 2001 and climate data of 1991–2010. Considering 1991–2010 as the baseline reference period, FORE‐SCE projections of year 2091 under three scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are separately assimilated into the calibrated model, whereas climate input is kept the same as in the baseline. Modeling results suggest an increase of 0.5% and 3.5% in the average annual streamflow at the basin outlet (Grafton, Illinois) during 2081–2100, respectively, for A1B and A2, whereas for B1, streamflow would decrease by 1.5%. Under the “worst case” A2 scenario, 6% and 133% increase, respectively, in agricultural and urban areas with 30% depletion of forest and grassland would result into 70% increase in surface runoff, 20% decrease in soil moisture, and 4% decrease in evapotranspiration in certain parts of the basin. Conversion of cropland, forest, or grassland to perennial hay/pasture areas would lower surface runoff by 25% especially in the central region, whereas persistent forest cover in the northern region would cause up to 7% increase in evapotranspiration. The ecosystem in the lower half of UMRB is likely to become adverse, as dictated by a composite water–energy balance indicator. Future land use change extents and resultant hydrologic responses are found significantly different under A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios, which resonates the need for multi‐scenario ensemble assessments towards characterizing a probable future. The spatial variation of hydrologic processes as shown here helps to identify potential “hot spots,” giving ways to adopt more effective policy alternatives at regional level.     

Re-appraisal of earthquake catalog in the Pamir―Hindu Kush region,emphasizing the early and modern instrumental earthquake events

Journal of Seismology - The Pamir-Hindu Kush region is seismically the most dynamic and active zone that went through many devastating earthquakes. While much research is ongoing to produce seismic...     

A quantitative assessment of changes in seasonal potential predictability for the twentieth century

Changes over the twentieth century in seasonal mean potential predictability (PP) of global precipitation, 200 hPa height and land surface temperature are examined by using 100-member ensemble. The ensemble simulations have been conducted by using an intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model of the International Center for Theoretical Physics, Italy. Using the Hadley Centre sea surface temperature (SST) dataset on a 1° grid, two 31 year periods of 1920–1950 and 1970–2000 are separated to distinguish the periods of low and high SST variability, respectively. The standard deviation values averaged for the (“Niño-3.4”; 5°S–5°N, 170°W–120°W) region are 0.71 and 1.15 °C, for the periods of low and high SST variability, respectively, with a percentage change of 62 % during December–January–February (DJF). The leading eigenvector and the associated principal component time series, also indicate that the amplitude of SST variations have positive trend since 1920s to recent years, particularly over the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) region. Our hypothesis states that the increase in SST variability has increased the PP for precipitation, 200 hPa height and land surface temperature during the DJF. The analysis of signal and noise shows that the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio is much increased over most of the globe, particularly over the tropics and subtropics for DJF precipitation. This occurs because of a larger increase in the signal and at the same time a reduction in the noise, over most of the tropical areas. For 200 hPa height, the S/N ratio over the Pacific North American (PNA) region is increasing more than that for the other extratropical regions, because of a larger percentage increase in the signal and only a small increase in noise. It is also found that the increase in seasonal mean transient signal over the PNA region is 50 %, while increase in the noise is only 12 %, during the high SST variability period, which indicates that the increase in signal is more than the noise. For DJF land surface temperature, the perfect model notion is utilized to confirm the changes in PP during the low and high SST variability periods. The correlation between the perfect model and the other members clearly reveal that the seasonal mean PP changed. In particular, the PP for the 31 years period of 1970–2000 is higher than that for the 31 years period of 1920–1950. The land surface temperature PP is increased in northern and southern Africa, central Europe, southern South America, eastern United States and over Canada. The increase of the signal and hence the seasonal mean PP is coincides with an increase in tropical Pacific SST variability, particularly in the ENSO region.     

Assessment of Air Temperature Trends in the Source Region of Yellow River and Its Sub-Basins,China

Changes in climatic variables at the sub-basins scale (having different features of land cover) are crucial for planning, development and designing of water resources infrastructure in the context of climate change. Accordingly, to explore the features of climate changes in sub-basins of the Source Region of Yellow River (SRYR), absolute changes and trends of temperature variables, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), mean temperature (Tavg) and diurnal temperature range (DTR), were analyzed annually and seasonally by using daily observed air temperature dataset from 1965 to 2014. Results showed that annual Tmax, Tmin and Tavg for the SRYR were experiencing warming trends respectively at the rate of 0.28, 0.36 and 0.31°C (10 yr)^?1. In comparison with the 1st period (1965-1989), more absolute changes and trends towards increasing were observed during the 2nd period (1990-2014). Apart from Tangnaihai (a low altitude sub-basin), these increasing trends and changes seemed more significant in other basins with highest magnitude during winter. Among sub-basins the increasing trends were more dominant in Huangheyan compared to other sub-basins. The largest increase magnitude of Tmin, 1.24 and 1.18°C (10 yr)^?1, occurred in high altitude sub-basins Jimai and Huangheyan, respectively, while the smallest increase magnitude of 0.23°C (10 yr)^?1 occurred in a low altitude sub-basin Tangnaihai. The high elevation difference in Tangnaihai probably was the main reason for the less increase in the magnitude of Tmin. In the last decade, smaller magnitude of trend for all temperature variables signified the signal of cooling in the region. Overall, changes of temperature variables had significant spatial and seasonal variations. It implies that seasonal variations of runoff might be greater or different for each sub-basin.     

Characteristics of lipid tracer compounds transported to the Arabian Gulf by runoff from rivers and atmospheric dust transport

River runoff and atmospheric fallout (dust and air particulate matter) are major input sources of natural and anthropogenic terrestrial organic and inorganic components to the Arabian seas. In this study, we report on the various lipid tracer compounds that might be transported to the Arabian Gulf by rivers, dust, and air particulate matter. These are based on geochemical analysis of sediment, dust, and particulate samples collected from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The samples were extracted with a dichloromethane/methanol mixture and analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The extractable organic compounds (lipids) in the samples include n-alkanes, n-alkanoic acids, n-alkanols, methyl n-alkanoates, steroids, triterpenoids, carbohydrates, and petroleum hydrocarbons. The steroids and triterpenoids were major components in river and wetland samples. The major sources of these lipids were from natural vegetation, microbial (plankton and bacteria) residues in the sediments, sand, and soils, with some contribution from anthropogenic sources. Accordingly, these sources could be major inputs to the Arabian seas besides the autochthonous marine products. Future studies of the organic and inorganic biogeochemistry on river, dust, and coastal areas are needed to characterize the various regional sources, transformation, and diagenetic processes of the organic matter en route to the marine environment.