Cross-national patterns of governance mechanisms in nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement

ABSTRACT

The continuous submission and scaling-up of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) constitutes a key feature of the Paris Agreement. In their NDCs, states propose governance mechanisms for implementation of climate action, in turn distinguishing appropriate roles for the state in climate governance. Clarity on Parties’ suggested roles for the state makes explicit assumptions on the premise of climate policy, in turn contributing to enhanced transparency in negotiations on the scaling-up of NDCs. This also speaks to ongoing debates on roles for the state in climate governance literature. This article identifies the governance mechanisms proposed by states in their NDCs and the roles for the state envisioned by those governance mechanisms, and also examines how cross-national patterns of roles for the state break or converge with conventional patterns of international politics. The analysis shows that states propose a plurality of roles, which to different extents may be complementary or conflictual. We conclude that income, region, and the Annexes under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are important for understanding suggested roles for the state, but that there are nuances to be further explored. We argue that this paper has three key findings: i) a majority of states rely on market mechanisms to implement their NDCs while rules on implementation and assessment of market mechanisms are still an outstanding issue in the negotiations, meaning that resolving this issue will be essential; ii) the process for evaluating and assessing qualitative governance mechanisms needs to be specified; and iii) increased awareness of differing views on the state’s roles makes explicit different perspectives on what constitutes an ambitious and legitimate contribution to combating climate change.

Key policy insights

• A majority of states (> 75%) envision the state as regulator (creating and strengthening legislation), market facilitator (creating and maintaining market structures), or facilitator (creating more favourable material conditions for climate-friendly behaviour).

• Greater awareness of differing views on roles for the state can increase understanding of different perspectives on ambition and legitimacy of contributions, in turn facilitating trust in negotiations.

• A distinction between substantive and procedural qualitative governance mechanisms and their function and interaction would facilitate the stocktaking dialogues.

     

Magnetic properties of the LL5 ordinary chondrite Chelyabinsk (fall of February 15, 2013)

Here we characterize the magnetic properties of the Chelyabinsk chondrite (LL5, S4, W0) and constrain the composition, concentration, grain size distribution, and mineral fabric of the meteorite's magnetic mineral assemblage. Data were collected from 10 to 1073 K and include measurements of low‐field magnetic susceptibility (χ₀), the anisotropy of χ₀, hysteresis loops, first‐order reversal curves, Mössbauer spectroscopy, and X‐ray microtomography. The REM and REM′ paleointensity protocols suggest that the only magnetizations recorded by the chondrite are components of the Earth's magnetic field acquired during entry into our planet's atmosphere. The Chelyabinsk chondrite consists of light and dark lithologies. Fragments of the light lithology show logχ₀ = 4.57 ± 0.09 (s.d.) (n = 135), while the dark lithology shows 4.65 ± 0.09 (n = 39) (where χ₀ is in 10^?9 m³ kg^?1). Thus, Chelyabinsk is three times more magnetic than the average LL5 fall, but is similar to a subgroup of metal‐rich LL5 chondrites (Paragould, Aldsworth, Bawku, Richmond) and L/LL5 chondrites (Glanerbrug, Knyahinya). The meteorite's room‐temperature magnetization is dominated by multidomain FeNi alloys taenite and kamacite (no tetrataenite is present). However, below approximately 75 K remanence is dominated by chromite. The metal contents of the light and dark lithologies are 3.7 and 4.1 wt%, respectively, and are based on values of saturation magnetization.     

The effect of a dense atmosphere on the tidally induced potential of Titan

The effect of the dense atmosphere of Titan on the tidal variations of the external gravitational potential of degree two is quantified. The atmospheric tides perturb the external gravitational potential of Titan in two ways. First, the atmosphere itself contributes directly to the external gravitational potential with a period of 15.945 days. Second, the variable loading of the atmosphere induces mass redistribution within Titan, which also changes the external gravitational potential. It is shown that the relative atmospheric contributions to the tides are most likely less than 2% and vanish almost completely for the most plausible models with a subsurface ocean. This suggest that atmospheric tidal perturbations will contribute only negligibly to Cassini measurements of Titan's gravitational field so that the tidal Love numbers derived from these observations can be directly interpreted in terms of the satellite's interior.     

The last Scandinavian Ice Sheet in northwestern Russia: ice flow patterns and decay dynamics

Advance of the Late Weichselian (Valdaian) Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) in northwestern Russia took place after a period of periglacial conditions. Till of the last SIS, Bobrovo till, overlies glacial deposits from the previous Barents and Kara Sea ice sheets and marine deposits of the Last Interglacial. The till is identified by its contents of Scandinavian erratics and it has directional properties of westerly provenance. Above the deglaciation sediments, and extra marginally, it is replaced by glaciofluvial and glaciolacustrine deposits. At its maximum extent, the last SIS was more restricted in Russia than previously outlined and the time of termination at 18-16 cal. kyr BP was almost 10 kyr delayed compared to the southwestern part of the ice sheet. We argue that the lithology of the ice sheets' substrate, and especially the location of former proglacial lake basins, influenced the dynamics of the ice sheet and guided the direction of flow. We advocate that, while reaching the maximum extent, lobe-shaped glaciers protruded eastward from SIS and moved along the path of water-filled lowland basins. Ice-sheet collapse and deglaciation in the region commenced when ice lobes were detached from the main ice sheet. During the Lateglacial warming, disintegration and melting took place in a 200-600 km wide zone along the northeastern rim of SIS associated with thick Quaternary accumulations. Deglaciation occurred through aerial downwasting within large fields of dead ice developed during successively detached ice lobes. Deglaciation led to the development of hummocky moraine landscapes with scattered periglacial and ice-dammed lakes, while a sub-arctic flora invaded the region.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monte Carlo simulation of GCR neutron capture production of cosmogenic nuclides in stony meteorites and lunar surface

Abstract— A purely physical model based on a Monte Carlo simulation of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) particle interaction with meteoroids is used to investigate neutron interactions down to thermal energies. Experimental and/or evaluated excitation functions are used to calculate neutron capture production rates as a function of the size of the meteoroid and the depth below its surface. Presented are the depth profiles of cosmogenic radionuclides ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca, ⁶⁰Co, ⁵⁹Ni, and ¹²⁹I for meteoroid radii from 10 cm up to 500 cm and a 2π irradiation. Effects of bulk chemical composition on n‐capture processes are studied and discussed for various chondritic and lunar compositions. The mean GCR particle flux over the last 300 ka was determined from the comparison of simulations with measured ⁴¹Ca activities in the Apollo 15 drill core. The determined value significantly differs from that obtained using equivalent models of spallation residue production.