Recent evolution of Lake Arreo,northern Spain: influences of land use change and climate

We present a high-resolution, multiproxy reconstruction of the depositional history of Lake Arreo, northern Spain, for the last 60 years. We conducted sedimentological, geochemical and diatom analyses in short cores and made a detailed comparison with regional instrumental climate data (1952–2007), limnological monitoring of the lake (1992–2008) and recent land use changes that affect the lake catchment. Chronology is based on “floating” discontinuous varve counts and ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dates. Four periods were identified in the Lake Arreo recent history: (1) prior to 1963, varved facies intercalated with fine turbidite deposits, and diatom assemblages dominated by Cyclotella taxa indicate predominantly meromictic conditions, (2) from 1964 to 1978, permanent anoxia persisted in bottom waters, as shown by similar facies and diatom assemblages as before, though detrital layers were coarser, (3) from 1979 to 1994, sediment delivery to the lake increased and laminated, clastic facies were deposited, and (4) from 1995 to 2008, dominance of massive facies and an increase in Fragilaria tenera and Achnanthes minutissima reflect relatively lower lake levels, less frequent bottom anoxia with more frequent water column mixing, similar to modern conditions. The period 1952–1979 was a time of meromixis and varved facies deposition, and was characterized by higher rainfall and less intense agricultural pressure in the watershed. There were two short humid periods (1992–1993 and 1996–1998) when monitoring data show more anoxic weeks per year and relatively higher lake levels. Increased cultivation of small landholdings in 1963, and particularly after 1979, caused a large increase in sediment delivery to the lake. The inferred lake evolution is in agreement with monitoring data that suggest a transition from dominantly meromictic conditions prior to 1993–1994 to a predominantly monomictic pattern of circulation since then, particularly after 2000. The synergistic effects of intensive water extraction for irrigation and lower rainfall since 1979, and particularly since 1994, brought the long period of meromictic conditions in Lake Arreo to an end. Water balance and sediment delivery to the lake are dominant factors that control the limnological and mixing conditions in Lake Arreo and they must be considered in management and restoration plans.     

Chemical oceanographic influences on sediment accumulations of a carbonate ramp: Holocene Yucatan Shelf,Mexico

Global controls on the oceanographic influences on the nature of carbonate factories are broadly understood. The details of the influences of changes in temperature and nutrients across individual carbonate shelves are less well constrained, however. This study explores spatial and temporal variations in chemical oceanography along and across the Yucatan Shelf, a modern carbonate ramp, and how these factors relate to variable bottom character, sediment and sediment geochemistry. In‐situ sensors and remote‐sensing data indicate the sporadic presence of cool, upwelled water with low dissolved oxygen and elevated Chlorophyll‐a. This current‐driven, westward flow of upwelled water is most evident in a zone just offshore of the northern peninsular shoreline, but its influence wanes ca 75 km offshore and as the shore turns southward. The impacts of this water mass include a transitional photozoan–heterozoan assemblage with biosiliceous components, relict grains and common thin Holocene sediment accumulations nearshore; further offshore are coralgal reefs and expansive sand plains. Geochemical proxies of bulk sediment, including high δ¹⁸O and elevated HREE/LREE (heavy rare‐earth element/light rare‐earth element) ratios near, and downcurrent of, the upwelling source, are interpreted to represent the signal of nearshore, westward movement of the cool and nutrient‐rich, upwelled water. Collectively, these data emphasize how local processes such as upwelling and longshore transport can variably influence carbonate sediment accumulations and their geochemical signatures, both along and across individual shelves. These data and insights provide an analogue for the influences of spatial variability of water masses in the geological record, and for accurate interpretation of stratigraphic changes of sedimentary and geochemical proxy data in carbonate archives.     

Shallow and deep aquifer hydrochemistry and chemical variability of water quality at Shariatpur district, Bangladesh

Water quality and hydrochemistry of Shariatpur district were evaluated in terms of hydrochemical composition and some important physico-chemical parameters. The groundwater of the study area is good for drinking, domestic as well as for irrigation purposes. Among the major ions, shallow tube well waters give higher concentration of Ca²⁺ which ranges from 24 to 260 mg/L. The deep tubewell waters show higher concentration of Na⁺ which varies from 74 to 582 mg/L during dry season. Among the trace elements most of the shallow aquifer samples show higher concentration of Fe²⁺, Mn²⁺ and As. Concentration of Fe²⁺ varies from 0.655 to 18.8 mg/L, and Mn²⁺ from trace to 0.868 mg/L during dry period. Hydrochemical analyses reveal significant seasonal variation in water quality of shallow aquifer. Both the shallow aquifer and the surface water of the study area are predominantly of Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type, while the deep aquifer water is mainly of Na–K–Cl–SO₄ type with slight inclination to Ca–Mg–HCO₃ type. The study area is suitable for groundwater development if comprehensive and holistic approaches towards water resource management are taken into consideration.     

Prediction of satellite motions in the Earth's gravitational field with axial symmetry by the KS regularized theory

In this paper, economical and stable recurrence formulae for the Earth's zonal potential and its gradient for the KS regularized theory will be established for any numberN of the zonal harmonic coefficient. A general recursive computational algorithm based on these formulae is also established for the initial value problem of the KS theory for the prediction of artificial satellites in the Earth's gravitational field with axial symmetry. Applications of the algorithm for the problem of the final state prediction are illustrated by numerical examples of three test orbits each for two geopotential models corresponding toN=2 andN=36. A final state of any desired accuracy is obtained for each case study, a result which shows the flexibility of the algorithm.     

Evidence for Holocene environmental change from C/N ratios, and δ13C and δ15N values in Swan Lake sediments, western Sand Hills, Nebraska

Profiles of percent carbon and nitrogen, carbon/nitrogen (C/N) ratios and stable carbon (¹³C), and nitrogen (¹⁵N) isotopic ratios in organic matter from an 11.6 m core were used to reconstruct environments of deposition in the Swan Lake basin during the past 5300 YBP. The upper 6.5 m consisted of gyttja containing variable amounts of reddish brown-colored fine organic matter and calcium carbonate. It was followed by a 0.5 m sandy silt, which was followed by a 3.6 m reduced layer characterized by large quantities of black organic plant remains, sapropel, and then by another sapropel layer consisting mainly of well-sorted sapropelic sand with relatively low organic matter content. The C- and N-contents in the organic matter in the sediment profile ranged from 0.5 to 23% and from 0.02 to 2%, respectively. Carbon content were positively correlated to both N and clay content while carbon content was negatively correlated to sand content. Two major environmental phases in Swan Lake were apparent from large differences in the C and N data of the sediment organic matter. These include the sapropel (marsh) stage that stretched from approximately 5330 to 3930 YBP, and the following gyttja (open water stage). During the sapropel marsh plants identified in a previous pollen study as cattails and sedges proliferated and produced copious amounts of well-preserved organic matter. C/N ratios, ¹³C values, and ¹⁵N values in the sapropel were significantly different from those that characterized organic matter in the gyttja. During the gyttja ¹³C values indicated that deep primary producers have dominated lake biomass. By utilizing bicarbonate as their C-source, the accumulating biomass became relatively enriched ¹³C values. The presence of high sediment CaCO₃ contents indicated more alkaline and deeper water conditions prevailed during the gyttja. Further refinement of the data suggested that each major phase initially contained an identifiable transition stage. During the sapropelic (initial marsh stage) which occurred before 5330 YBP, sand content gradually decreased as organic matter increased. As reflected by high C/N ratios and slightly enriched ¹³C values, these sands appear to have contained sufficient permeability to promote partial mineralization of accumulated organic-N containing compounds. A short initial gyttja transition period from about 3930–3830 YBP occurred in which the sediment silt content was anomalously high relative that measured in the surrounding layers. The silt content suggests that this turbid transition layer can not be completely explained by sediment mixing via bioturbation. The silts appeared to have been associated with the sharp climate change that resulted in higher water-table conditions during the gyttja stage.     

ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan

Different techniques have been used to discuss the existence of significant relation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Various studies present their interaction and influence on the natural disasters (i.e. drought, flood, etc.) over large parts of the globe. This study uses a Markov chain method to investigate the relation between the ENSO and IOD for the period of 62 years (1950–2011) and aggregates their influence on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan. Both data sets show similarities in the formation of transition matrices and expected number of visits from one state to another. The strong values of 2-dimensional correlation and high self-communication of the transition states confirm the existence of a possible relation between ENSO and IOD data. Moreover, significant values of dependency and stationary test endorse the applicability of the Markov chain analyses. The independent analysis shows that strong events of both data sets are co-occurred in the same flood years. During the study period maximum number of floods was observed during summer monsoon season. However, further analysis shows that after 1970, Pakistan observed the highest percentage of floods occurred per year during El Nino, Non-ENSO and positive IOD years. These observations and results demonstrate that climate variability especially ENSO and IOD should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies in Pakistan.     

A Methodology for Clustering Lakes in Alberta on the basis of Water Quality Parameters

In this study, a methodology for clustering 18 lakes in Alberta, Canada using the data of 19 water quality parameters for a period of 11 years (1988–2002) is presented. The methods consist of (i) principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the dominant water quality parameters, (ii) cluster analysis techniques to develop the characteristics of the clusters, and (iii) pattern‐match lakes to determine the appropriate cluster for each of the lakes. The PCA revealed that three principal components (PCs) were able to explain ～88% of the variability and the dominant water quality parameters were total dissolved solids, total phosphorus, and chlorophyll‐a. We obtained five clusters for the period 1994–1997 by using the dominant parameters with water quality deteriorating as the cluster number increased from 1 to 5. Upon matching cluster patterns with the entire dataset, it was observed that some of the lakes belonged to the same cluster all the time (e.g., cluster 1 for lakes Elkwater, Gregg, and Jarvis; cluster 3 for Sturgeon; cluster 4 for Moonshine; and cluster 5 for Saskatoon), while others changed with time. This methodology could be applied in other regions of the world to identify the most suitable source waters and prioritize their management. It could be helpful to analyze the natural controlling processes, pollution types, impact of seasonal changes and overall quality of source waters. This methodology could be used for monitoring water bodies in a cost effective and efficient way by sampling only less number of dominant parameters instead of using a large set of parameters.     

Developing a long-term monitoring network under uncertain flowpaths

A long-term monitoring well network is developed using complementary and simple approaches in conjunction with a stochastic ground water flow and transport model. The development is illustrated for a case study of a U.S. nuclear testing site (Shoal) that is undergoing environmental restoration. The network design builds on three different, yet complementary, tools for locating the monitoring wells with a main objective of detection monitoring. The first tool is applied to select potential siting horizons where monitoring wells could be located. The second tool is used to place monitoring wells in locations with high success probability. The success here is defined as the detection of migrating stochastic plumes before a certain mass percentage reaches a compliance boundary. The third tool is used to analyze detection efficiency of multiple combinations of three wells. Seventy-six different three-well networks are selected from 20 candidate locations and are evaluated for detection efficiency. From the 76 networks analyzed, 28 attain detection efficiency close to or above 70%. The results of the different analyses provide multiple alternatives for the locations of the three wells, which will become part of the long-term monitoring network at Shoal. A number of combinations are equally good, and the final choice will depend on practical considerations and future agreements between model sponsor and regulators.     

Reconstructing historic Glacial Lake Outburst Floods through numerical modelling and geomorphological assessment: Extreme events in the Himalaya

Recession of high‐mountain glaciers in response to climatic change frequently results in the development of moraine‐dammed glacial lakes. Moraine dam failure is often accompanied by the release of large volumes of water and sediment, termed a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). Chukhung Glacier is a small (~3 km²) receding valley glacier in Mt. Everest (Sagarmatha) National Park, Nepal. Unlike many Himalayan glaciers, which possess a thick mantle of supraglacial debris, its surface is relatively clean. The glacier terminus has receded 1.3 km from its maximum Holocene position, and in doing so provided the space for an ice‐contact moraine‐dammed lake to develop. The lake had a maximum volume of 5.5 × 10⁵ m³ and drained as a result of breaching of the terminal moraine. An estimated 1.3 × 10⁵ m³ of material was removed from the terminal moraine during breach development. Numerical dam‐breach modelling, implemented within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, was used to investigate a range of moraine‐dam failure scenarios. Reconstructed outflow peak discharges, including failure via overtopping and piping mechanisms, are in the range 146–2200 m³ s^‐1. Results from two‐dimensional hydrodynamic GLOF modelling indicate that maximum local flow depths may have exceeded 9 m, with maximum flow velocities exceeding 20 m s^‐1 within 700 m of the breach. The floodwaters mobilised a significant amount of material, sourced mostly from the expanding breach, forming a 300 m long and 100 m wide debris fan originating at the breach exit. moraine‐dam. These results also suggest that inundation of the entire floodplain may have been achieved within ten minutes of initial breach development, suggesting that debris fan development was rapid. We discuss the key glaciological and geomorphological factors that have determined the evolution of a hazardous moraine‐dammed lake complex and the subsequent generation of a GLOF and its geomorphological impact. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.