Analysis of climate policy targets under uncertainty

Although policymaking in response to the climate change threat is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions paths developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. The resulting uncertainty in temperature change and other impacts under these targets is used to illustrate three insights not obtainable from deterministic analyses: that the reduction of extreme temperature changes under emissions constraints is greater than the reduction in the median reduction; that the incremental gain from tighter constraints is not linear and depends on the target to be avoided; and that comparing median results across models can greatly understate the uncertainty in any single model.     

How well can we simulate complex hydro‐geomorphic process chains? The 2012 multi‐lake outburst flood in the Santa Cruz Valley (Cordillera Blanca,Perú)

Changing high‐mountain environments are characterized by destabilizing ice, rock or debris slopes connected to evolving glacial lakes. Such configurations may lead to potentially devastating sequences of mass movements (process chains or cascades). Computer simulations are supposed to assist in anticipating the possible consequences of such phenomena in order to reduce the losses. The present study explores the potential of the novel computational tool r.avaflow for simulating complex process chains. r.avaflow employs an enhanced version of the Pudasaini ( 2012 ) general two‐phase mass flow model, allowing consideration of the interactions between solid and fluid components of the flow. We back‐calculate an event that occurred in 2012 when a landslide from a moraine slope triggered a multi‐lake outburst flood in the Artizón and Santa Cruz valleys, Cordillera Blanca, Peru, involving four lakes and a substantial amount of entrained debris along the path. The documented and reconstructed flow patterns are reproduced in a largely satisfactory way in the sense of empirical adequacy. However, small variations in the uncertain parameters can fundamentally influence the behaviour of the process chain through threshold effects and positive feedbacks. Forward simulations of possible future cascading events will rely on more comprehensive case and parameter studies, but particularly on the development of appropriate strategies for decision‐making based on uncertain simulation results. © 2017 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Analysis of growing season carbon and water fluxes of a subalpine wetland in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: Implications of shade on ecosystem water use efficiency

Mountain regions are an important regulator in the global water cycle through their disproportionate water contribution. Often referred to as the “Water Towers of the World”, mountains contribute 40%–60% of the world's annual surface flow. Shade is a common feature in mountains, where complex terrain cycles land surfaces in and out of shadows over daily and seasonal scales, which can impact water use. This study investigated the turbulent water and carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes during the snow-free period in a subalpine wetland in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, from 7 June to 10 September 2018. Shading had a significant and substantial effect on water and CO₂ fluxes at our site. When considering data from the entire study period, each hourly increase of shade per day reduced evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary production (GPP) by 0.42 mm and 0.77 g C m^?2, equivalent to 17% and 15% per day, respectively. However, the variability in shading changed throughout the study, it was stable to start and increased towards the end. Only during the peak growing season, the site experienced days with both stable and increasing shade. During this time, we found that shade, caused by the local complex terrain, reduced ET and potentially increased GPP, likely due to enhanced diffuse radiation. The overall result was greater water use efficiency during periods of increased shading in the peak growing season. These findings suggest that shaded subalpine wetlands can store large volumes of water for late season runoff and are productive through short growing seasons.     

Changes in bark properties and hydrology following prescribed fire in Pinus taeda and Quercus montana

In the eastern United States, the use of prescribed fire as a silvicultural technique to manage for desirable upland tree species is increasing in popularity. Bark physical properties such as thickness, density, and porosity have known associations with fire tolerance among species. These physical properties simultaneously influence rainfall interception and canopy storage and thus are of interest across a range of disciplines. Furthermore, while these characteristics are innate to a species, it is unknown whether repeated exposure to fire facilitates physical change in bark structure and whether these changes are consistent among species. To answer these questions, bark samples were collected from mature pine (Pinus taeda L.) and oak (Quercus montana Willd.) trees from sites across the Bankhead National Forest in Alabama, USA under three different burn regimes: 3-year cycle, 9-year cycle, and no fire. Samples were analysed in the laboratory for bulk density, porosity, water storage capacity, and hygroscopicity (the amount of atmospheric water vapour absorbed by bark during non-rainfall conditions). Drying rates of saturated samples under simulated wetting conditions were also assessed. Oak bark had higher bulk density, lower porosity, and dried slower than pine bark. Interestingly, bark from both species had lower bulk density, higher porosity, greater water storage capacity, and dried faster in stands that were burned every 3 years compared to other fire regimes (p < 0.001). In summary, this study demonstrates that prescribed fire regimes in an eastern US forest alter bark structure and thus influence individual tree control on hydrological processes. The increase in bark water storage capacity, coupled with faster bark evaporation times may lead to less water inputs to the forest floor and drier overall conditions. Further investigation of this fire-bark-water feedback loop is necessary to understand the extent of these mechanisms controlling landscape-scale conditions.     

Impact melt rocks from the Late Paleocene Hiawatha impact structure,northwest Greenland

Impact melt rocks formed during hypervelocity impact events are ideal for studying impact structures. Here, we describe impact melt rock samples collected proximal to the 31 km wide 58 Ma Hiawatha impact structure, northwest Greenland, which is completely covered by the Greenland Ice Sheet. The melt rocks contain diagnostic shock indicators (e.g., planar deformation features [PDF] in quartz and shocked zircon) and form three groups based on melt textures and chemistry: (i) hypocrystalline, (ii) glassy, and (iii) carbonate-based melt rocks. The exposed foreland directly in front of the structure consists of metasedimentary successions and igneous plutons; however, the carbonate-based impactites indicate a mixed target sequence with a significant carbonate-rich component. Well-preserved organic material in some melt rocks indicates that North Greenland at the time of impact was host to abundant organic material, likely a dense high-latitude temperate forest. Geochemical signatures of platinum-group elements in selected samples indicate an extraterrestrial component and support previous identification of a highly fractionated iron impactor in glaciofluvial sand. Our results illustrate the possibility to study impact structures hidden beneath a thick ice sheet based on transported samples and this opens a new avenue for identifying other potential impact craters in Greenland and Antarctica.