Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Pressure effect on Ti- or P-rich accessory mineral saturation in evolved granitic melts with differing K2O/Na2O ratios

The solubility of Ti- and P-rich accessory minerals has been examined as a function of pressure and K₂O/Na₂O ratio in two series of highly evolved silicate systems. These systems correspond to (a) alkaline, varying from alkaline to peralkaline with increasing K₂O/Na₂O ratio; and (b) strongly metaluminous (essentially trondhjemitic at the lowest K₂O/Na₂O ratio) and remaining metaluminous with increasing K₂O/Na₂O ratio (to 3). The experiments were conducted at a fixed temperature of 1000 °C, with water contents varying from 5 wt.% at low pressure (0.5 GPa), increasing through 5–10 wt.% at 1.5–2.5 GPa to 10 wt.% at 3.5 GPa. Pressure was extended outside the normal crustal range, so that the results may also be applied to derivation of hydrous silicic melts from subducted oceanic crust.

For the alkaline composition series, the TiO₂ content of the melt at Ti-rich mineral saturation decreases with increasing pressure but is unchanged with increasing K content (at fixed pressure). The P₂O₅ content of the alkaline melts at apatite saturation increases with increased pressure at 3.5 GPa only, but decreases with increasing K content (and peralkalinity). For the metaluminous composition series (termed as “trondhjemite-based series” (T series)), the TiO₂ content of the melt at Ti-rich mineral saturation decreases with increasing pressure and with increasing K content (at fixed pressure). The P₂O₅ content of the T series melts at apatite saturation is unchanged with increasing pressure, but decreases with increasing K content. The contrasting results for P and Ti saturation levels, as a function of pressure in both compositions, point to contrasting behaviour of Ti and P in the structure of evolved silicate melts. Ti content at Ti-rich mineral saturation is lower in the alkaline compared with the T series at 0.5 GPa, but is similar at higher pressures, whereas P content at apatite saturation is lower in the T series at all pressures studied. The results have application to A-type granite suites that are alkaline to peralkaline, and to I-type metaluminous suites that frequently exhibit differing K₂O/Na₂O ratios from one suite to another.     

Tsunami Hazard and Risk in Canada

Tsunamis have occurred in Canada due to earthquakes, landslides, and a large chemical explosion. The Pacific coast is at greatest risk from tsunamis because of the high incidence of earthquakes and landslides in that region. The most destructive historical tsunamis, however, have been in Atlantic Canada – one in 1917 in Halifax Harbour, which was triggered by a catastrophic explosion on a munitions ship, and another in 1929 in Newfoundland, caused by an earthquake-triggered landslide at the edge of the Grand Banks. The tsunami risk along Canada's Arctic coast and along the shores of the Great Lakes is low in comparison to that of the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Public awareness of tsunami hazard and risk in Canada is low because destructive tsunamis are rare events.     

Middle Paleozoic paleomagnetism of east Kazakhstan: post-Middle Devonian rotations in a large-scale orocline in the central Ural–Mongol belt

In order to test different hypotheses concerning the Paleozoic evolution of the Ural–Mongol belt (UMB) and the amalgamation of Eurasia, we studied Middle Devonian basalts from two localities (11 sites) and Lower Silurian volcanics, redbeds, and intra-formational conglomerates from three localities (20 sites) in the Chingiz Range of East Kazakhstan. The Devonian rocks prove to be heavily overprinted in the late Paleozoic, and a high-temperature, presumably primary, southerly, and down component is isolated at only four sites from a homoclinal section. Most Silurian redbeds are found to be remagnetized in the late Paleozoic; in contrast, a bipolar near-horizontal remanence, isolated from Silurian volcanics, is most probably primary as indicated by positive tilt and conglomerate tests. Analysis of paleomagnetic data from the Chingiz Range shows that southward-pointing directions in Ordovician, Silurian, and Devonian rocks are of normal polarity and hence indicate large-scale rotations after the Middle Devonian. The Chingiz paleomagnetic directions can be compared with Paleozoic data from the North Tien Shan and with the horseshoe-shaped distribution of subduction-related volcanic complexes in Kazakhstan. Both paleomagnetic and geological data support the idea that today's strongly curved volcanic belts of Kazakhstan are an orocline, deformed mostly before mid-Permian time. Despite the determination of nearly a dozen new Paleozoic paleopoles in this study and other recent publications by our team, significant temporal and spatial gaps remain in our knowledge of the paleomagnetic directions during the middle and late Paleozoic. However, the paleomagnetic results from the Chingiz Range and the North Tien Shan indicate that these areas show generally coherent motions with Siberia and Baltica, respectively.     

Putting Japanese investment in Europe in its place

Summary Research on Japanese economic activity in Europe concentrates almost exclusively on investment in manufacturing. However, this paper demonstrates that this emphasis both underestimates the longevity of Japanese direct investment in Europe and also grossly underdefines the importance of services. Not only does Japanese direct investment have a much longer history in Europe than is usually recognized but also—and perhaps more significantly—the bulk of that investment is not in manufacturing production per se but in a variety of circulation services. Using establishment-level data, this paper shows that the spatial manifestation of these circulation services is very different from that of manufacturing production.     

Record of Late Pleistocene Glaciation and Deglaciation in the Southern Cascade Range. I. Petrological Evidence from Lacustrine Sediment in Upper Klamath Lake, Southern Oregon

Petrological and textural properties of lacustrine sediments from Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, reflect changing input volumes of glacial flour and thus reveal a detailed glacial history for the southern Cascade Range between about 37 and 15 ka. Magnetic properties vary as a result of mixing different amounts of the highly magnetic, glacially generated detritus with less magnetic, more weathered detritus derived from unglaciated parts of the large catchment. Evidence that the magnetic properties record glacial flour input is based mainly on the strong correlation between bulk sediment particle size and parameters that measure the magnetite content and magnetic mineral freshness. High magnetization corresponds to relatively fine particle size and lower magnetization to coarser particle size. This relation is not found in the Buck Lake core in a nearby, unglaciated catchment. Angular silt-sized volcanic rock fragments containing unaltered magnetite dominate the magnetic fraction in the late Pleistocene sediments but are absent in younger, low magnetization sediments. The finer grained, highly magnetic sediments contain high proportions of planktic diatoms indicative of cold, oligotrophic limnic conditions. Sediment with lower magnetite content contains populations of diatoms indicative of warmer, eutrophic limnic conditions. During the latter part of oxygen isotope stage 3 (about 37–25 ka), the magnetic properties record millennial-scale variations in glacial-flour content. The input of glacial flour was uniformly high during the Last Glacial Maximum, between about 21 and 16 ka. At about 16 ka, magnetite input, both absolute and relative to hematite, decreased abruptly, reflecting a rapid decline in glacially derived detritus. The decrease in magnetite transport into the lake preceded declines in pollen from both grass and sagebrush. A more gradual decrease in heavy mineral content over this interval records sediment starvation with the growth of marshes at the margins of the lake and dilution of detrital material by biogenic silica and other organic matter.     

Gold partitioning in melt-vapor-brine systems

We used laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to measure the solubility of gold in synthetic sulfur-free vapor and brine fluid inclusions in a vapor + brine + haplogranite + magnetite + gold metal assemblage. Experiments were conducted at 800°C, oxygen fugacity buffered at Ni-NiO (NNO), and pressures ranging from 110 to 145 MPa. The wt% NaCl eq. of vapor increases from 2.3 to 19 and that of brine decreases from 57 to 35 with increasing pressure. The composition of the vapors and brines are dominated by NaCl + KCl + FeCl₂ + H₂O. Gold concentrations in vapor and brine decrease from 36 to 5 and 50 to 28 μg/g, respectively, and the calculated vapor:brine partition coefficients for gold decrease from 0.72 to 0.17 as pressure decreases from 145 to 110 MPa. These data are consistent with the thermodynamic boundary condition that the concentration of gold in the vapor and brine must approach a common value as the critical pressure is approached along the 800°C isotherm in the NaCl-KCl-FeCl₂-HCl-H₂O system.We use the equilibrium constant for gold dissolution as AuOH⁰, extrapolated from lower temperature and overlapping pressure range, to calculate expected concentrations of AuOH⁰ in our experimental vapors. These calculations suggest that a significant quantity of gold in our experimental vapors is present as a non-hydroxide species. Possible chloridogold(I) species are hypothesized based on the positively correlated gold and chloride concentrations in our experimental vapors. The absolute concentration of gold in our synthetic vapor, brine, and melt and calculated mass partition coefficients for gold between these physicochemically distinct magmatic phases suggests that gold solubility in aqueous fluids is a function of aqueous phase salinity, specifically total chloride concentration, at magmatic conditions. However, though we highlight here the effect of salinity, the combination of our data with data sets from lower temperatures evinces a significant decrease in gold solubility as temperature drops from 800°C to 600°C. This decrease in solubility has implications for gold deposition from ascending magmatic fluids.     

Deciphering late Devonian–early Carboniferous P–T–t path of mylonitized garnet-mica schists from Prins Karls Forland,Svalbard

Quartz-in-garnet inclusion barometry integrated with trace element thermometry and calculated phase relations is applied to mylonitized schists of the Pinkie unit cropping out on the island of Prins Karls Forland, western part of the Svalbard Archipelago. This approach combines conventional and novel techniques and allows deciphering of the pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution of mylonitic rocks, for which the P–T conditions could not have been easily deciphered using traditional methods. The results obtained suggest that rocks of the Pinkie unit were metamorphosed under amphibolite facies conditions at 8–10 kbar and 560–630°C and mylonitized at ~500 to 550°C and 9–11 kbar. The P–T results are coupled with in-situ Th–U-total Pb monazite dating, which records amphibolite facies metamorphism at c. 359–355 Ma. This is the very first evidence of late Devonian–early Carboniferous metamorphism in Svalbard and it implies that the Ellesmerian Orogeny on Svalbard was associated with metamorphism up to amphibolite facies conditions. Thus, it can be concluded that the Ellesmerian collision between the Franklinian margin of Laurentia and Pearya and Svalbard caused not only commonly accepted brittle deformation and weak greenschist facies metamorphism, but also a burial and deformation of rock complexes at much greater depths at elevated temperatures.