Predicting June Mean Rainfall in the Middle/Lower Yangtze River Basin

We demonstrate that there is significant skill in the GloSea5 operational seasonal forecasting system for predicting June mean rainfall in the middle/lower Yangtze River basin up to four months in advance.Much of the rainfall in this region during June is contributed by the mei-yu rain band.We find that similar skill exists for predicting the East Asian summer monsoon index(EASMI)on monthly time scales,and that the latter could be used as a proxy to predict the regional rainfall.However,there appears to be little to be gained from using the predicted EASMI as a proxy for regional rainfall on monthly time scales compared with predicting the rainfall directly.Although interannual variability of the June mean rainfall is affected by synoptic and intraseasonal variations,which may be inherently unpredictable on the seasonal forecasting time scale,the major influence of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures from the preceding winter on the June mean rainfall is captured by the model through their influence on the western North Pacific subtropical high.The ability to predict the June mean rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin at a lead time of up to 4 months suggests the potential for providing early information to contingency planners on the availability of water during the summer season.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

RC J0311+0507: A candidate for superpowerful radio galaxies in the early universe at redshift z = 4.514

A strong emission line at 6703 Å has been detected in the optical spectrum for the host galaxy (R = 23.1) of the radio source RC J0311+0507 (4C+04.11). This radio galaxy, with a spectral index of 1.31 in the frequency range 365–4850 MHz, is one of the ultrasteep-spectrum objects from the deep survey of a sky strip conducted with RATAN-600 in 1980–1981. We present arguments in favor of the identification of this line with Lyα at redshift z = 4.514. In this case, the object belongs to the group of extremely distant radio galaxies of ultrahigh radio luminosity (P ₁₄₀₀ = 1.3 × 10²⁹ W Hz^?1). Such power can be provided only by a fairly massive black hole (～10⁹ M⊙) that formed in a time less than the age of the Universe at the observed z (1.3 Gyr) or had a primordial origin.     

Convective-conductive transitions and sensitivity of a convecting ice shell to perturbations in heat flux and tidal-heating rate: Implications for Europa

We investigate the response of conductive and convective ice shells on Europa to variations of heat flux and interior tidal-heating rate. We present numerical simulations of convection in Europa's ice shell with Newtonian, temperature-dependent viscosity and tidal heating. Modest variations in the heat flux supplied to the base of a convective ice shell, ΔF, can cause large variations of the ice-shell thickness Δδ. In contrast, for a conductive ice shell, large ΔF involves relatively small Δδ. We demonstrate that, for a fluid with temperature-dependent viscosity, the heat flux undergoes a finite-amplitude jump at the critical Rayleigh number Racr. This jump implies that, for a range of heat fluxes relevant to Europa, two equilibrium states—corresponding to a thin, conductive shell and a thick, convective shell—exist for a given heat flux. We show that, as a result, modest variations in heat flux near the critical Rayleigh number can force the ice shell to switch between the thin, conductive and thick, convective configurations over a ∼10⁷-year interval, with thickness changes of up to ∼10-30 km. Depending on the orbital and thermal history, such switches might occur repeatedly. However, existing evolution models based on parameterized-convection schemes have to date not allowed these transitions to occur. Rapid thickening of the ice shell would cause radial expansion of Europa, which could produce extensional tectonic features such as fractures or bands. Furthermore, based on interpretations for how features such as chaos and ridges are formed, several authors have suggested that Europa's ice shell has recently undergone changes in thickness. Our model provides a mechanism for such changes to occur.     

Be star candidates in the Large Magellanic Cloud: the catalogue and comparison with the Small Magellanic Cloud sample

We present a catalogue with coordinates and photometric data of 2446 Be star candidates in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), based on a search of the OGLE II data base. The I -band light curves of these stars show outbursts in 24 per cent of the sample (Type-1 stars), high and low states in 10 per cent, periodic variations in 6 per cent (Type-3 stars), and stochastic variations in 60 per cent of the cases. We report on the result of the statistical study of light curves of Type-1 and Type-3 stars in the LMC, and the comparison with the previously reported results of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) sample. We find a statistically significant difference between amplitude, duration and asymmetry distributions of outbursts in both galaxies. Outbursts of SMC Type-1 stars are usually brighter, longer and with a slower decline. We find a bimodal distribution of periods of Type-3 stars in both galaxies, probably related to the recently discovered double periodic blue variables. We find also period and amplitude distributions of Type-3 LMC stars statistically different from those of the SMC stars. Our findings above suggest that the mechanisms causing the observed photometric variability of Type-1 and Type-3 stars could depend on metallicity. Moreover, they suggest that the outbursts are not primarily caused by stellar winds.