Modeling a major source of economic resilience to disasters: recapturing lost production

Terrorist attacks and natural disasters have potentially severe economic consequences in terms of property damage and business interruption. However, experience from the September 11 World Trade Center attack and other disasters indicates that the economy has a great deal of resilience. This refers to the ability to dampen the maximum potential economic output (business interruption) loss. One of the most prominent sources of resilience is the ability of businesses to reschedule, or recapture, lost production after the event. Although there have been applications of a fixed parameter recapture factor for each of several aggregated sectors of the economy, there has been little formal analysis of this resilience action. This study offers a theoretic framework for analyzing production rescheduling. It distinguishes the major conditions influencing two aspects that have previously been neglected: (1) the maximum time span over which the rescheduling can take place and (2) the likely decline of the maximum recapture as the business interruption increases. We divide the relevant time path into two periods after recovery. One is a function of a recaptured output path after recovery to the status of normal production. The other is a function for the maximum recaptured production, based on the recaptured output path. The recaptured output path function is assumed to follow a normal distribution function, and hence, total recaptured output follows the cumulative normal distribution function over time after productive capacity is restored. Also, we develop a new cumulative normal distribution function for interruption time duration, which is symmetric with respect to the output axis. This recapture function has unknown parameters. Empirical data on the recaptured amounts following an actual disaster can be used to estimate the parameters of this function using simulation methods.     

Use of in situ-produced Be in carbonate-rich environments: A first attempt

We have determined the production rate of in situ-produced ¹⁰Be in calcite through measurements of ¹⁰Be and ³⁶Cl concentrations in the same calcite samples and of ¹⁰Be concentrations in depth profiles of flint from the same erosional surface. This yields a ¹⁰Be production rate in calcite of 37.9 ± 6.0 at/g/yr at sea level and high latitude, approximately sixfold higher than production in the coexisting flint. We propose that this higher rate of production may be due to high production cross sections for C spallation by cosmic rays with energies below 50 MeV. These results also open the possibility of dating burial events in carbonate-rich environments by differential radioactive decay of ¹⁰Be and ³⁶Cl.     

Gold partitioning in melt-vapor-brine systems

We used laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry to measure the solubility of gold in synthetic sulfur-free vapor and brine fluid inclusions in a vapor + brine + haplogranite + magnetite + gold metal assemblage. Experiments were conducted at 800°C, oxygen fugacity buffered at Ni-NiO (NNO), and pressures ranging from 110 to 145 MPa. The wt% NaCl eq. of vapor increases from 2.3 to 19 and that of brine decreases from 57 to 35 with increasing pressure. The composition of the vapors and brines are dominated by NaCl + KCl + FeCl₂ + H₂O. Gold concentrations in vapor and brine decrease from 36 to 5 and 50 to 28 μg/g, respectively, and the calculated vapor:brine partition coefficients for gold decrease from 0.72 to 0.17 as pressure decreases from 145 to 110 MPa. These data are consistent with the thermodynamic boundary condition that the concentration of gold in the vapor and brine must approach a common value as the critical pressure is approached along the 800°C isotherm in the NaCl-KCl-FeCl₂-HCl-H₂O system.We use the equilibrium constant for gold dissolution as AuOH⁰, extrapolated from lower temperature and overlapping pressure range, to calculate expected concentrations of AuOH⁰ in our experimental vapors. These calculations suggest that a significant quantity of gold in our experimental vapors is present as a non-hydroxide species. Possible chloridogold(I) species are hypothesized based on the positively correlated gold and chloride concentrations in our experimental vapors. The absolute concentration of gold in our synthetic vapor, brine, and melt and calculated mass partition coefficients for gold between these physicochemically distinct magmatic phases suggests that gold solubility in aqueous fluids is a function of aqueous phase salinity, specifically total chloride concentration, at magmatic conditions. However, though we highlight here the effect of salinity, the combination of our data with data sets from lower temperatures evinces a significant decrease in gold solubility as temperature drops from 800°C to 600°C. This decrease in solubility has implications for gold deposition from ascending magmatic fluids.     

Plesiosaurs

Plesiosaurs are an unusual and intriguing group of extinct aquatic reptiles ( Fig. 1 ). They are sauropterygians, a group known from an array of semi‐aquatic forms during the Triassic period: placodonts, pachypleurosaurs and nothosaurs. The first plesiosaurs are known from the very latest Triassic, but by the Early Jurassic plesiosaurs were cosmopolitan in distribution and lasted successfully to the latest Cretaceous, when they became victims of the K‐T extinction event. Plesiosaurs were predominantly marine organisms, although their fossils are not uncommon in brackish or even fresh water deposits. We know that all plesiosaurs were carnivorous; many of them were top predators in their respective ecosystems. But with no living descendants (or analogues) plesiosaurs are mysterious fossil organisms—as we will see, many questions regarding their biology remain unanswered or contentious. However, plesiosaurs are currently undergoing renewed scientific attention.

Figure 1 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint The beautifully preserved skeleton of the plesiosaur Rhomaleosaurus victor seen in ventral view, from the Lower Jurassic (Toarcian) of Holzmaden, Germany (total length 3.44 m). Redrawn from Fraas (1910).     

Paleoclimatic implications of glacial and postglacial refugia for Pinus pumila in western Beringia

Palynological results from Julietta Lake currently provide the most direct evidence to support the existence of a glacial refugium for Pinus pumila in mountains of southwestern Beringia. Both percentages and accumulation rates indicate the evergreen shrub survived until at least ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP in the Upper Kolyma region. Percentage data suggest numbers dwindled into the late glaciation, whereas pollen accumulation rates point towards a more rapid demise shortly after ∼ 19,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Pinus pumila did not re-establish in any great numbers until ∼ 8100 ¹⁴C yr BP, despite the local presence ∼ 9800 ¹⁴C yr BP of Larixdahurica, which shares similar summer temperature requirements. The postglacial thermal maximum (in Beringia ∼ 11,000-9000 ¹⁴C yr BP) provided Pinus pumila shrubs with equally harsh albeit different conditions for survival than those present during the LGM. Regional records indicate that in this time of maximum warmth Pinus pumila likely sheltered in a second, lower-elevation refugium. Paleoclimatic models and modern ecology suggest that shifts in the nature of seasonal transitions and not only seasonal extremes have played important roles in the history of Pinus pumila over the last ∼ 21,000 ¹⁴C yr BP.     

Identification of a sulfide derivative with a bicyclic hydrocarbon skeleton related to squalene. Part II: synthesis of a S-spiro-like dithiolane triterpenoid

A sulfide with a bicyclic squalene hydrocarbon skeleton present in sediments from various depositional settings and of different geological age has been identified by synthesis of a reference compound. In contrast to previous expectations [cf. Schouten, S., Sinninghe Damsté, J.S., de Leeuw, J.W., 1995. A novel triterpenoid carbon skeleton in immature sulphur-rich sediments. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 59, 953–958; Gug, S., Schaeffer, P., Adam, P., Klein, S., Motsch, E., Albrecht, P., 2009. Identification of a sulfide derivative with a bicyclic hydrocarbon skeleton related to squalene. Part I: Synthesis of a dithiane triterpenoid. Organic Geochemistry 40, 876–884.], this sulfide bears two “S-spiro type“ thiolane moities, but not the two thiochromane moieties originally envisaged. The synthesis resulted in the formation of a complex isomeric mixture of compounds, all co-eluting in gas chromatography (GC) in the form of one broad peak, as is the case with the geochemical compound. The spiro-type sulfide was formed by intramolecular sulfurization of a polyunsaturated bicyclic squalene derivative of unknown biological origin. The presence of this sulfide in a number of Triassic to Miocene marine sediments from various and contrasting depositional settings (upwelling environments, shallow continental platforms, lagoonal sub-basins, hypersaline environments), all characterized by strongly anoxic conditions, but with or without photic zone anoxia, indicates that the microorganisms biosynthesizing the precursor bicyclic squalene occupy diverse ecological niches.     

The brecciated texture of polymict eucrites: Petrographic investigations of unequilibrated meteorites from the Antarctic Yamato collection

We report on the petrography and mineralogy of five Yamato polymict eucrites to better constrain the formation and alteration of crustal material on differentiated asteroids. Each sample consists of different lithic clasts that altogether form four dominant textures and therefore appear to originate from closely related petrological areas within Vesta′s crust. The textures range from subophitic to brecciated, porphyritic, and quench‐textured, that differ from section to section. Comparison with literature data for these samples is therefore difficult, which stresses that polymict eucrites are extremely complex in their petrography and investigation of only one thick section may not be representative for the host rock. We also show that sample Y‐793548 consists of more than one lithic unit and must therefore be classified as polymict instead of monomict. The variety and nature of lithic textures in the investigated Yamato meteorites indicate shock events, intense post‐magmatic thermal annealing, and secondary alteration. These postmagmatic features occur in different intensities, varying from clast to clast or among coexisting mineral fragments on a small, local scale. Several clasts within the eucrites studied have been modified by late‐stage alteration processes that caused deposition of Fe‐rich olivine and Fe enrichment along cracks crosscutting pyroxene crystals. However, formation of these secondary phases seems to be independent of the degree of thermal metamorphism observed within every type of clast, which would support a late‐stage metasomatism model for their formation.     

Viscous damping of nonlinear magneto-acoustic waves

The motivation for the present work is discussed, and in Section 2 the nonlinear Burger's equation is derived for wave propagation in a compressible unstratified viscous fluid permeated by a magnetic field (initially constant), using the reductive perturbation method of Taniuti and Wei (1968). An analytic solution of the equation is given (after Sakai, 1972) and the angular behaviour is shown for certain parameters describing the nonlinearity and damping of the system, for both fast- and slow-mode disturbances.     

The use of solar faculae in studies of the sunspot cycle

Comparison of the long-term variation of photospheric faculae areas with that of sunspots shows that studies of faculae provide both complementary and supplementary information on the behaviour of the solar cycle. Detailed studies of the development of sunspots with respect to faculae show that there is a high degree of order over much of a given cycle, but marked differences from cycle to cycle. Within a cycle the relationship between spot and faculae areas appears to be similar for the N and S solar hemispheres, and over the early stages of a cycle it is directly related to the magnitude of the maximum sunspot number subsequently attained in that cycle.This result may well have predictive applications, and formulae are given relating the peak sunspot number to simple parameters derived from this early developmental stage. Full application to the current cycle 21 is denied due to the cessation of the Greenwich daily photoheliographic measurements, but use of the cruder weekly data suggests a maximum smoothed sunspot number of 150 ± 22.The effects of the incompatibility of the spot and faculae data, in that faculae are unobservable over a large fraction of the solar disc and also do not always develop associated spots, have been examined in a detailed study of two cycles and shown not to vitiate the results.Now at NOAA, Environmental Data Service, NGSTDC, Boulder, Colo. 80302, U.S.A.