Understanding indigenous people’s perception on climate change and climatic hazards: a case study of Chakma indigenous communities in Rangamati Sadar Upazila of Rangamati District, Bangladesh

This study explores the relationship between perception on climate change as well as climatic hazards and socio-demographic characteristics such as age, gender, occupation, exposure to mass media, amount of land, education, and income. Following simple random sampling technique, a total of 384 households were sampled from Rangamati Sadar Upazila of Bangladesh and were interviewed through a predesigned semistructured questionnaire. The findings of the study reveal that a substantial number of respondents (61 %) perceive that climate is changing moderately over the years. The bivariate results indicate that age, gender, education, occupation, income, amount of land, and access to mass media are significantly associated with perception on climate change as well as climatic hazards. In addition, age, education, and exposure to mass media are also found as significant predictors of climate change perception. Education has been found as the single best predictor.     

Community-based disaster risk and vulnerability models of a coastal municipality in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities.     

Site amplification investigation in Dhaka, Bangladesh, using H/V ratio of microtremor

The degree of damage during earthquakes strongly depends on dynamic characteristics of buildings as well as amplification of seismic waves in soils. Among the other approaches, microtremor is, perhaps, the easiest and cheapest way to understand the dynamic characteristics of soil. Non-reference microtremor measurements have been carried out in 45 locations in and around the capital Dhaka city of Bangladesh. Subsoil investigations (Standard Penetration Test and Shear Wave Velocity) have also been executed in those locations. Soil model has been developed for those locations for site response analysis by means of the program SHAKE. Among those 45 locations, predominant frequency of microtremor observation varies from 0.48 to 3.65 Hz. Out of those 45, for 35 locations Transfer function obtained from the program SHAKE have higher frequency compared to microtremor H/V ratio and for one location it has lower predominant frequency. For six locations, frequencies obtained from two methods are identical. For three other locations, there are no similarities between predominant frequency obtained from microtremor and transfer function. The seismic Vulnerability Index (Kg) for 45 sites varies between 0.45 and 31.85. Ten sites have been identified as having moderate vulnerability of soil layers to deform.     

Suspended sediment load prediction of river systems: GEP approach

This study presents gene expression programming (GEP), an extension of genetic programming, as an alternative approach to modeling the suspended sediment load relationship for the three Malaysian rivers. In this study, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), regression model, and GEP approaches were developed to predict suspended load in three Malaysian rivers: Muda River, Langat River, and Kurau River [ANFIS (R ²?=?0.93, root mean square error (RMSE)?=?3.19, and average error (AE)?=?1.12) and regression model (R ²?=?0.63, RMSE?=?13.96, and AE?=?12.69)]. Additionally, the explicit formulations of the developed GEP models are presented (R ²?=?0.88, RMSE?=?5.19, and AE?=?6.5). The performance of the GEP model was found to be acceptable compare to ANFIS and better than the conventional models.     

Environmental impact assessment on water quality deterioration caused by the decreased Ganges outflow and saline water intrusion in south-western Bangladesh

 This paper deals with an environmental impact assessment of low water flow in the river Ganges during a dry period at the Khulna and Mongla port areas in south-western Bangladesh. Large-scale surface water withdrawal in India after commissioning the Farakka Barrage causes a drastic fall in the Ganges low-flow condition within the Bangladesh territory during every dry period. The average lowest discharge in the Ganges is 552 m³/s, which is about 73% less than that in the pre-Farakka time. This has caused the deterioration of both surface and groundwater quality of the study area. Salinity is the principal cause of water quality degradation in the area. Present observation shows that the surface water of the area is sulphate-chloride dominated, which signifies high salinity whereas the groundwater is categorized as of medium to high salinity. To maintain the Rupsa River's maximum salinity below 1000 μS/cm the discharge in the Ganges should be ∼1500 m³/s, whereas that at Garai basin is ∼10 m³/s. If this present situation continues it will be a crippling blow to the environment of the area in the long term. An integrated multidisciplinary approach to hydrogeological research is urgently required to salvage the area from further deterioration. Received: 9 August 1999 · Accepted: 8 March 2000     

Lake and reservoir water quality affected by metals leaching from tropical soils, Bangladesh

 The release of metals during weathering has been studied in order to assess its geochemical controls and possible effects on environmental health in Bangladesh. A total of 27 soil samples and 7 surface water samples were collected from four locations covering three major regions in the country. Results show that weathering effects are a strong function of climatic conditions. Surface waters are typically enriched in Al, Mg, Ca, Na, K, As, Ba, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn. The solubility of metal ions, organometallic complexes, co-precipitation or co-existence with the colloidal clay fraction are the main processes that lead to metal enrichment in lake and reservoir water. Aluminium concentrations exceed World Health Organization (WHO) drinking-water standards in all samples, and in two regions, arsenic concentrations also significantly exceed WHO standards. The elevated levels of As indicate that arsenic contamination of water supplies in Bangladesh is not confined to groundwater. Received: 4 June 1999 · Accepted: 17 August 1999     

Development of Tide–Surge Interaction Model for the Coastal Region of Bangladesh

In this paper, a two-dimensional, vertically integrated hydrodynamic model is developed taking into account entrained air bubbles during storm surges as well as incorporating inverted barometer, and river and land dynamics. The model is specifically designed for the coastal region of Bangladesh. A nested scheme method with a fine mesh scheme (FMS), capable of incorporating the complex coastline and all major offshore islands accurately, nested into a coarse mesh scheme (CMS) covering up to 15° N latitude in the Bay of Bengal is used. To incorporate the small and big offshore islands in the Meghna estuarine region with its complex coastline accurately, a very fine mesh scheme (VFMS) is again nested into the FMS. Along the northeast corner of the VFMS, the Meghna river discharge is taken into account. The coastal and island boundaries are approximated through proper stair steps. The model equations are solved by a semi-implicit finite difference technique using a staggered C-grid. A stable appropriate tidal condition over the model domain is generated by applying tidal forcing with the four major tidal constituents M ₂, S ₂, K ₁, and O ₁ along the southern open boundary of the CMS. This tidal regime is introduced as the initial state of the sea for nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. The model is applied to simulate water levels due to the interaction of tide and surge associated with the cyclones April 1991 and Aila at different coastal and island locations along the coast of Bangladesh. The results are found to be quite satisfactory with root mean square error of ～0.50 m as calculated for both the storm events. Tests of sensitivities on water levels are carried out for air bubbles, offshore islands, river discharge, inverse barometer, and grid resolution. The presence of air bubbles increases simulated water levels a little bit in our model, and the contribution of air bubbles in increasing water level is found around 2 %. Further, water levels are found to be influenced by offshore islands, river discharge, inverse barometer as well as grid resolution.     

High temporal and spatial resolution observations of meso-scale features of pre- and mature summer monsoon cloud systems over Bangladesh

Meso-scale characteristics of disturbances that bring about atmospheric disasters in pre- and mature monsoon seasons in Bangladesh are analyzed. Several types of meteorological instruments capable of observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions were introduced for the first time in this area to capture the meso-scale structure of rainfall systems. We installed an automatic weather station (AWS) and several automatic raingauges (ARGs) and utilized the weather radar of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). From the radar image in the summer of 2001 (16–18 July), a striking feature of the systematic diurnal variation in this area was elucidated. In these 3 days, the diurnal evolutions of convective activity were remarkably similar to each other, implying that this pattern can be understood as a typical response of local cloud systems to the diurnal variation of insolation under some summer monsoon situations. The ARG data show the difference in characteristics of rainfall between pre- and mature monsoon seasons. The short intense downpour tends to occur more frequently in the pre-monsoon season than in the mature monsoon season. The pre-monsoon rainfall also has clear diurnal variation with a peak that is more strongly concentrated in time. In the northern part the rainfall peak is found in between midnight and early morning, while it is observed in the daytime in central to western parts of the country. Two disaster cases caused by meso-scale disturbances are analyzed. Although they occurred in the same season, the structures of the cloud systems were largely different from each other. The disturbance brought about tornadoes on 14 April 2004, consisting of many spherical cloud systems of approximately 20 km size. On the other hand, another one that caused the tragic river water transport accident on 23 May 2004 had meso-scale rain band structure. The latter case was captured by the AWS located at Dhaka. Sudden changes in temperature, wind and pressure were observed clearly, showing the typical structure of convective rain bands.     

A long-term trend in precipitation of different spatial regions of Bangladesh and its teleconnections with El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole

A long-term (1948 to 2012) trend of precipitation (annual, pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons) in Bangladesh was analyzed in different regions using both parametric and nonparametric approaches. Moreover, the possible teleconnections of precipitation (annual and monsoon) variability with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) were investigated using both average and individual (both positive and negative) values of ENSO index and IOD. Our findings suggested that for annual precipitation, a significant increasing monotonic trend was found in whole Bangladesh (4.87 mm/year), its western region (5.82 mm/year) including Rangpur (9.41 mm/year) and Khulna (4.95 mm/year), and Sylhet (10.12 mm/year) and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) from eastern region. In pre-monsoon, only Rangpur (2.88 mm/year) showed significant increasing trend, while in monsoon, whole Bangladesh (3.04 mm/year), Sylhet (7.17 mm/year), and Barisal (6.94 mm/year) showed similar trend. In post-monsoon, there was no significant trend. Our results also revealed that the precipitation (annual or monsoon) of whole Bangladesh and almost all of the spatial regions did not show any significant correlation with ENSO events, whereas the average IOD values showed significant correlation only in monsoon precipitation of western region. The individual positive IODs showed significant correlation in whole Bangladesh, western region, and its two divisions (Rajshahi and Khulna). So, in the context of Bangladesh climate, IOD has the more teleconnection to precipitation than that of ENSO. Our findings indicate that the co-occurrence of ENSO and IOD events may suppress their influence on each other.