Parameter uncertainty of the AWBM model when applied to an ungauged catchment

In this study, a quantitative assessment of uncertainty was made in connection with the calibration of Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) for both gauged and ungauged catchment cases. For the gauged catchment, five different rainfall data sets, 23 different calibration data lengths and eight different optimization techniques were adopted. For the ungauged catchment case, the optimum parameter sets obtained from the nearest gauged catchment were transposed to the ungauged catchments, and two regional prediction equations were used to estimate runoff. Uncertainties were ascertained by comparing the observed and modelled runoffs by the AWBM on the basis of different combinations of methods, model parameters and input data. The main finding from this study was that the uncertainties in the AWBM modelling outputs could vary from ?1.3% to 70% owing to different input rainfall data, ?5.7% to 11% owing to different calibration data lengths and ?6% to 0.2% owing to different optimization techniques adopted in the calibration of the AWBM. The performance of the AWBM model was found to be dominated mainly by the selection of appropriate rainfall data followed by the selection of an appropriate calibration data length and optimization algorithm. Use of relatively short data length (e.g. 3 to 6 years) in the calibration was found to generate relatively poor results. Effects of different optimization techniques on the calibration were found to be minimal. The uncertainties reported here in relation to the calibration and runoff estimation by the AWBM model are relevant to the selected study catchments, which are likely to differ for other catchments. The methodology presented in this paper can be applied to other catchments in Australia and other countries using AWBM and similar rainfall–runoff models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability analysis of multi-directional anchored rock slope subjected to surcharge and seismic loads

More than one set of anchors with different orientations can be an economical solution to completely stabilize the rock slope. In this note, a general analytical expression for the factor of safety of a multi-directional anchored rock slope (MDARS) against plane failure is derived, incorporating most of the practically occurring destabilizing forces under surcharge and seismic loading conditions. Several special cases of this expression are found to be similar to those reported in the literature. A graphical presentation shows that for any specific inclination of one set of anchors to the normal at failure plane, the variation in the inclination of the second set of anchors to the normal at failure plane, when greater than approximately 60°, does not cause a significant change in the factor of safety of the MDARS.     

Stable isotope dynamics of groundwater interactions with Ganges river

Groundwater depletion has been an emerging crisis in recent years, especially in highly urbanized areas as a result of unregulated exploitation, thus leaving behind an insufficient volume of usable freshwater. Presently Ganges river basin, the sixth largest prolific fluvial system and sustaining a huge population in South Asia, is witnessed to face (i) aquifer vulnerability through surface waterborne pollutant and (ii) groundwater stress due to summer drying of river as a result of indiscriminate groundwater abstraction. The present study focuses on a detailed sub-hourly to seasonally varying interaction study and flux quantification between river Ganges and groundwater in the Indian subcontinent which is one of the first documentations done on a drying perennial river system that feeds an enormous population. Contributing parameters to the total discharge of a river at its middle course on both temporal and spatial scale is estimated through three-component hydrograph separation and end-member mixing analysis using high-resolution water isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ²H) and electrical conductivity data. Results from this model report groundwater discharge in river to be the highest in pre-monsoon, that is, 30%, whereas, during post-monsoon the contribution lowers to 25%; on the contrary, during peak monsoon, the flow direction reverses thus recharging the groundwater which is also justified using annual piezometric hydrographs of both river water and groundwater. River water-groundwater interaction also shows quantitative variability depending on river morphometry. The current study also provides insight on aquifer vulnerability as a result of pollutant mixing through interaction and plausible attempts towards groundwater management. The present study is one of the first in South Asian countries that provides temporally and spatially variable detailed quantification of baseflow and estimates contributing parameters to the river for a drying mega fluvial system.     

Spatial analysis of thunderstorms and lightning casualties in Bangladesh

Considering the adverse outcomes of thunderstorm-mediated lightning in recent years, this study aimed to identify the most thunderstorm-and-casualty prone regions and seasons in Bangladesh, via geospatial mapping. We attempted to forecast the number of yearly thunderstorm (TS) days for each meteorological station and district-level lightning casualties by using TS days as a proxy variable. Data on TS days and lightning casualties were collected from Bangladesh Meteorological Department and Network for Information, Response And Preparedness Activities on Disaster respectively. This study analysed 629 fatalities and 232 injuries. The Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation with Matern covariance function was employed to assess the spatial pattern of TS days. Polynomial regressions were used to forecast the number of TS days and the single clustered Generalized Estimating Equations method was employed to explore the relationship between the number of TS days and lightning casualties. The results indicated that the mean number of TS days per station increased in recent years, particularly in February, March, April, and September. We found the months of April, May, June, and September to be the most threatening months due to TS events and related casualties. The northeast region was identified as the most TS-prone region with the highest number of casualties in Bangladesh. Our analysis suggests that it might remain the most hazardous region in coming years.     

Simulation of vortex-induced vibrations of a cylinder using ANSYS CFX

In this paper, vortex-induced vibrations of a cylinder are simulated by use of ANSYS CFX simulation code. The cylinder is treated as a rigid body and transverse displacements are obtained by use of a one degree of freedom spring damper system. 2-D as well as 3-D analysis is performed using air as the fluid. Reynolds number is varied from 40 to 16000 approx., covering the laminar and turbulent regimes of flow. The experimental results of （Khalak and Williamson, 1997） and other researchers are used for validation purposes. The results obtained are comparable.     

Geochemistry and fluid inclusions study of highly fractionated garnet-bearing granite of Gabal Abu Diab, central Eastern Desert of Egypt

The Neoproterozoic granite of Gabal Abu Diab, central Eastern Desert of Egypt, comprises mainly garnet-bearing granite and alkali feldspar granite intruded into calc-alkaline granodiorite–tonalite and metagabbro–diorite complexes. The garnet-bearing granite is composed mainly of plagioclase, K-feldspar, quartz, garnet and primary muscovite ± biotite. The presence of garnet and primary muscovite of Abu-Diab granite suggests its highly fractionated character. Geochemically, the garnet-bearing granite is highly fractionated as indicated from the high contents of SiO₂ (74.85–77.5%), alkalis (8.27 to 9.2%, Na₂O+K₂O) and the trace elements association: Ga, Zn, Zr, Nb and Y. This granite is depleted in CaO, MgO, P₂O₅, Sr and Ba. The alumina saturation (Shand Index, molar ratio A/CNK) of 1.0 to 1.1 indicates the weak peraluminous nature of this garnet-bearing granite. The geochemical characteristics of the Abu Diab garnet-bearing granite are consistent with either the average I-type or A-type granite and also suggest post-orogenic or anorogenic setting. A fluid inclusions study reveals the presence of three fluid generations trapped into the studied granite. The earlier is a complex CO₂–H₂O fluid trapped in primary fluid inclusions with CO₂ contents >?60 vol.%. These inclusions were probably trapped at minimum temperature >?400°C and minimum pressure >?2 kb. The second is immiscible water–CO₂ fluid trapped in secondary and/or pseudo-secondary inclusions. The trapping conditions were estimated at temperature between 400°C and 170°C and pressure between 900 and 2000 bar. The latest fluid is low-salinity aqueous fluid trapped in secondary two-phase and mono-phase inclusions. The trapping conditions were estimated at temperature between 90°C and 160°C and pressure <?900 bar. The origin of the early fluid generation is magmatic fluid while the second and third fluids are of hydrothermal and meteoric origin, respectively.     

Social capital, community based management, and fishers’ livelihood in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impact of Community Based Fisheries Management (CBFM) on fishing households’ welfare in Bangladesh. It analyses how the various types of livelihood assets contribute to fishers’ household incomes. The study found that fishers in CBFM project areas have improved their access to different assets including social, human, physical, financial and natural capitals. The regression results show that social capital contributed significantly to household income, indicating that social factors play very important roles in poverty alleviation in Bangladesh. Future poverty alleviation policy options need to give priority to investments in human, physical and natural capital assets.     

Ground-Based In Situ Measurements of Near-Surface Aerosol Mass Concentration over Anantapur: Heterogeneity in Source Impacts

Surface measurements of aerosol physical properties were made at Anantapur(14.62°N,77.65 °E,331 m a.s.l),a semiarid rural site in India,during August 2008-July 2009.Measurements included the segregated sizes of aerosolsas as well as total mass concentration and size distributions of aerosols measured at low relative humidity(RH<75%) using a Quartz Crystal Microbalance(QCM) in the 25-0.05 μm aerodynamic diameter range.The hourly average total surface aerosol mass concentration in a day varied from 15 to 70 μg m-3,with a mean value of 34.02±9.05μgm-3 for the entire study period.A clear diurnal pattern appeared in coarse,accumulation and nucleation-mode particle concentrations,with two local maxima occurring in early morning and late evening hours.The concentration of coarse-mode particles was high during the summer season,with a maximum concentration of 11.81±0.98μgm-3 in the month of April,whereas accumulationmode concentration was observed to be high in the winter period contributed >68% to the total aerosol mass concentration.Accumulation aerosol mass fraction,A f(=Ma/Mt) was highest during winter(mean value of Af～0.80) and lowest(Af～0.64) during the monsoon season.The regression analysis shows that both R eff and R m are dependent on coarse-mode aerosols.The relationship between the simultaneous measurements of daily mean aerosol optical depth at 500 nm(AOD500) and PM 2.5 mass concentration([PM2.5]) shows that surface-level aerosol mass concentration increases with the increase in columnar aerosol optical depth over the observation period.     

The Recovery of Two Long-logged Headwaters in Temengor Reservoir,Perak,Malaysia

A study on water quality of the two long-logged and abandoned headwaters in Temengor Reservoir was conducted to determine their natural recovery.In this study,we used National Water Quality Standards for Malaysia prepared by Malaysian Department of Environment as an indicator for water quality recovery.The parameters measured were dissolved oxygen（mg/L）,water temperature（℃）,pH,conductivity（mS/cm）,total dissolved solids（mg/ L）,water velocity（m/s）,ortho-phosphate（PO₄-P）,nitrite-nitrogen（NO₂-N）,nitrate-nitrogen（NO₃,-N）and alkalinity. In general,water quality in Sungai Enam and Sungai Telang were in ClassⅠ,indicating water quality in both streams have recovered.Based on the t-test,Sungai Enam and Sungai Telang differed significantly in all parameters except for dissolved oxygen,NO₂-N and NO₃-N.In spatial analyses（upper,middle and lower reaches comparisons）, the two-way ANOVA analysis shows that there were significant differences in all studied parameters between the two rivers except for dissolved oxygen,total dissolved solids,NO₂-N and NO₃-N.Stream flow,hydrologic pathways,geomorphology,physical and environmental characteristics are essential elements in understanding the dynamics of water systems in Sungai Enam and Sungai Telang.Due to the recovery,these two headwaters are thus suitable for fish conservation and restoration sites.