The ocean response to climate change guides both adaptation and mitigation efforts

The ocean's thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society. This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change, especially with respect to the ocean. Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean's perspective. In the near term (～2030), goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be critical. Over longer times (～2050–2060 and beyond), global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions. Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim, and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored. In the longer-term (after ～2060), slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached. Thus, climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years. At these time scales, preparation for “high impact, low probability” risks — such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, ecosystem change, or irreversible ice sheet loss — should be fully integrated into long-term planning.摘要在全球变化背景下, 海洋的很多变化在人类社会发展的时间尺度上 (百年至千年) 具有不可逆转性, 海洋巨大的热惯性是造成该不可逆性的主要原因. 这个特征为人类和生态系统应对海洋变化提出一系列挑战. 本文从海洋变化的角度总结了人类应对气候变化的要求, 提出需要进行多时间尺度的规划和统筹. 在近期 (到2030年) , 实现联合国可持续发展目标至关重要. 在中期 (2050–2060年前后) , 全球需要逐步减排并实现碳中和目标. 同时, 适应和减缓气候变化的行动和措施必须同步施行; 全球海洋观测系统需要得以维持并完善以持续监测海洋变化. 在远期 (在2060年之后) , 即使全球达到净零排放, 包括深海变暖和海平面上升在内的海洋变化都将持续, 因此应对全球变化的行动需持续数百年之久. 在该时间尺度, 应对“低概率, 高影响”气候风险 (即发生的可能性较低, 但一旦发生影响极大的事件带来的风险, 例如: 大西洋经圈反转环流突然减弱, 海洋生态系统跨过临界点, 无可挽回的冰盖质量损失等) 的准备应充分纳入长期规划.     

Review: The distribution,flow, and quality of Grand Canyon Springs,Arizona (USA)

An understanding of the hydrogeology of Grand Canyon National Park (GRCA) in northern Arizona, USA, is critical for future resource protection. The ~750 springs in GRCA provide both perennial and seasonal flow to numerous desert streams, drinking water to wildlife and visitors in an otherwise arid environment, and habitat for rare, endemic and threatened species. Spring behavior and flow patterns represent local and regional patterns in aquifer recharge, reflect the geologic structure and stratigraphy, and are indicators of the overall biotic health of the canyon. These springs, however, are subject to pressures from water supply development, changes in recharge from forest fires and other land management activities, and potential contamination. Roaring Springs is the sole water supply for residents and visitors (>6 million/year), and all springs support valuable riparian habitats with very high species diversity. Most springs flow from the karstic Redwall-Muav aquifer and show seasonal patterns in flow and water chemistry indicative of variable aquifer porosities, including conduit flow. They have Ca/Mg-HCO₃ dominated chemistry and trace elements consistent with nearby deep wells drilled into the Redwall-Muav aquifer. Tracer techniques and water-age dating indicate a wide range of residence times for many springs, supporting the concept of multiple porosities. A perched aquifer produces small springs which issue from the contacts between sandstone and shale units, with variable groundwater residence times. Stable isotope data suggest both an elevational and seasonal difference in recharge between North and South Rim springs. This review highlights the complex nature of the groundwater system.     

Tsunami in the last 15 years: a bibliometric analysis with a detailed overview and future directions

In the last fifteen years, tsunami science has progressed at a rapid pace. Three major tsunamis: The Indian Ocean in 2004, the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, and the 2018 Palu tsunami were significant landmarks in the history of tsunami science. All the three tsunamis, as mentioned, suffered from either no warning or poor reception of the alerts issued. Various lessons learned, consequent numerical models proposed, post-2004 tsunami damage findings manifested into solutions. However, the misperceived solutions led to a disastrous impact of the 2011 Tohoku event. In the following years, numerous improvements in warning systems and community preparedness frameworks were proposed and implemented. The contributions and new findings have added multi-fold advancements to tsunami science progress. Later, the 2018 Palu tsunami happened and again led to a massive loss of life and property. The warning systems and community seemed un-prepared for this non-seismic tsunami. A significant change is to take place in tsunami science practices and solutions. The 2018 tsunami is one of the most discussed and researched events concerning the palaeotsunami records, damage assessment, and source findings. In the new era, using machine learning and deep learning prevails in all the fields related to tsunami science. This article presents a complete 15-year bibliometric analysis of tsunami research from Scopus and Web of Science (WoS). The review of majorly cited documents in the form of a progressing storyline has highlighted the need for multidisciplinary research to design and propose practical solutions.

     

Tuna schools/aggregations in surface longline data 1993–98

Exploratory data analysis of a high‐resolution (hook‐by‐hook), 6‐year time series (1993–98) of observed longline catch data for tunas was used to investigate fine‐scale spatial patterns along individual sets that may be indicative of social behaviour (i.e., schooling) and/or the response of individual fish to favourable extrinsic conditions (i.e., aggregation). Methods of spatial data analysis (i.e., nearest neighbour analysis) that have previously been applied in various other sciences (e.g., forestry and astronomy) were used. Results indicate strong clustering of individual tunas at characteristic scales within the set. Mean Nearest Neighbour Distances (NNDs) were between 100 and 200 m, compared with NNDs of 200–700 m predicted by a heterogeneous Poisson process on the same spatial domain. The results suggest that these adult tunas were either schooling or aggregating at the time of capture; this may therefore be related either to social behaviour or to sub‐mesoscale oceanographic features. An aggregation index was derived from the NNDs, giving a classification method that may be used for similar data and the development of empirical models attempting to relate patterns in fish catch distributions to environmental variables. The success of such models will ultimately depend on elucidating the ecological processes reflected in oceanographic features at biologically meaningful spatial scales.     

Gravitational waves from scattering of stellar-mass black holes in galactic nuclei

Stellar-mass black holes (BHs) are expected to segregate and form a steep density cusp around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in galactic nuclei. We follow the evolution of a multimass system of BHs and stars by numerically integrating the Fokker–Planck energy diffusion equations for a variety of BH mass distributions. We find that the BHs 'self-segregate', and that the rarest, most massive BHs dominate the scattering rate closest to the SMBH  (≲10⁻¹ pc)  . BH–BH binaries form out of gravitational wave emission during BH encounters. We find that the expected rate of BH coalescence events detectable by Advanced LIGO is  ∼1–10² yr⁻¹  , depending on the initial mass function of stars in galactic nuclei and the mass of the most massive BHs. We find that the actual merger rate is likely ∼10 times larger than this due to the intrinsic scatter of stellar densities in many different galaxies. The BH binaries that form this way in galactic nuclei have significant eccentricities as they enter the LIGO band (90 per cent with   e > 0.9  ), and are therefore distinguishable from other binaries, which circularize before becoming detectable. We also show that eccentric mergers can be detected to larger distances and greater BH masses than circular mergers, up to  ∼700 M_⊙  . Future ground-based gravitational wave observatories will be able to constrain both the mass function of BHs and stars in galactic nuclei.     

Star clusters around recoiled black holes in the Milky Way halo

Gravitational wave emission by coalescing black holes (BHs) kicks the remnant BH with a typical velocity of hundreds of  km s⁻¹  . This velocity is sufficiently large to remove the remnant BH from a low-mass galaxy but is below the escape velocity from the Milky Way (MW) galaxy. If central BHs were common in the galactic building blocks that merged to make the MW, then numerous BHs that were kicked out of low-mass galaxies should be freely floating in the MW halo today. We use a large statistical sample of possible merger tree histories for the MW to estimate the expected number of recoiled BH remnants present in the MW halo today. We find that hundreds of BHs should remain bound to the MW halo after leaving their parent low-mass galaxies. Each BH carries a compact cluster of old stars that populated the core of its original host galaxy. Using the time-dependent Fokker–Planck equation, we find that the present-day clusters are  ≲1 pc  in size, and their central bright regions should be unresolved in most existing sky surveys. These compact systems are distinguishable from globular clusters by their internal (Keplerian) velocity dispersion greater than 100 km s⁻¹ and their high mass-to-light ratio owing to the central BH. An observational discovery of this relic population of star clusters in the MW halo would constrain the formation history of the MW and the dynamics of BH mergers in the early Universe. A similar population should exist around other galaxies and may potentially be detectable in M31 and M33.     

Active sonar detection in shallow water using the Page test

The use of active sonar in shallow water results in received echoes that may be considerably spread in time compared to the resolution of the transmitted waveform. The duration and structure of the spreading and the time of occurrence of the received echo are unknown without accurate knowledge of the environment and a priori information on the location and reflection properties of the target. A sequential detector based on the Page test is proposed for the detection of time-spread active sonar echoes. The detector also provides estimates of the starting and stopping times of the received echo. This signal segmentation is crucial to allow further processing such as more accurate range and bearing localization, depth localization, or classification. The detector is designed to exploit the time spreading of the received echo and is tuned as a function of range to the expected signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as determined by the transmitted signal power, transmission loss, approximate target strength, and the estimated noise background level. The theoretical false alarm and detection performance of the proposed detector, the standard Page test, and the conventional thresholded matched filter detector are compared as a function of range, echo duration, SNR, and the mismatch between the actual and assumed SNR. The proposed detector and the standard Page test are seen to perform better than the conventional thresholded matched filter detector as soon as the received echo is minimally spread in time. The use of the proposed detector and the standard Page test in active sonar is illustrated with reverberation data containing target-like echoes from geological features, where it was seen that the proposed detector was able to suppress reverberation generated false alarms that were detected by the standard Page test     

Coupling of the Perturbed C–N–P Cycles in Industrial Time

Coupling of the C–N–P biogeochemical cycles is effected by the dependence of the land and aquatic primary producers on the availability of N and P. In general, the Redfield ratios C:P and N:P in the reservoirs supplying nutrients for primary production on land, in the oceanic coastal zone, and in the surface ocean differ from these ratios in the land phytomass and aquatic plankton. When N:P in the source is higher than in primary producers, this results in a potential accumulation of some excess nitrogen in soil water and coastal water, and increased denitrification flux to the atmosphere. The oceanic coastal zone plays an important role in the coupled C–N–P cycles and their dynamics because of its intermediate position between the land and oceanic reservoirs. These coupled cycles were analyzed for the last 300 years of exposure to four human-generated forcings (fossil fuel emissions, land use change, chemical fertilization of land, and sewage discharge to the coastal zone) and global temperature rise. In the period from 1700 to 2000, there has been a net loss of C, N, and P primarily from the land phytomass and soil humus, despite the rise in atmospheric CO₂, increased recycling of nutrients from humus, chemical fertilization, and re-growth of forests on previously disturbed land. The main mechanisms responsible for the net loss were increased riverine transport to the coastal zone of dissolved and particulate materials and, for N, increased denitrification on land. The oceanic coastal zone gained N and P, resulting in their accumulation in the organic pool of living biomass and dissolved and reactive particulates, as well as in their accumulation in coastal sediments from land-derived and in situ produced organic matter. Pronounced shifts in the rates and directions of change in some of the major land reservoirs occurred near the mid-1900s. Denitrification removes N from the pool available for primary production. It is the strongest on land, accounting for 73–83% of N removal from land by the combined mechanisms of denitrification and riverine export.