Parametric estimation of ocean surface currents with HF radar

Ocean surface currents can be estimated, over a large coastal area, by utilizing the backscatter of high frequency (HF) radar waves from ocean gravity waves. Although the overall backscatter mechanism is complicated, the surface current information is contained within the spectral characteristics of two dominant Bragg components. The accuracy of the current estimate, following the usual FFT-based spectral estimate, is limited by the frequency resolution of the FFT and the time-varying characteristics of the Bragg components. This paper describes a high resolution parametric estimation of the ocean currents based on a recently proposed technique for analyzing time-varying signals. This technique, together with a time-domain ocean clutter model, allows all the Bragg signal information to be extracted from the two dominant eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a matrix constructed from the radar data. Using signals from an operational coastal surveillance radar, current estimates made using this technique are compared with those estimated by the conventional FFT-based method     

Quantification of the urban heat island under a changing climate over Anatolian Peninsula

The Anatolian Peninsula is located at the confluence of Europe, Asia, and Africa and houses 81 cities of which 79 of them have population over 100,000. We employed some criteria to select the cities from the 81 cities. After accomplishing all the criteria, eight cities were remaining for the study. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall test procedure was employed for the urban and rural stations of these cities to detect the long-term change in temperature trends. Statistical analysis of daily minimum temperatures for the period between 1965 and 2006 suggest that there is no statistically significant increase in rural areas. In contrast to the findings of the previous studies, however, all the urban sites and difference between urban and rural pairs show significant increase in temperatures, a strong indication for the existence of urban heat island (UHI) affect over the region. Regional Climate Model was also utilized to assess the changes in temperature by the end of century for the region. The findings suggest that an increase of up to 5°C is possible. Climate change effects enforced with UHI have the potential to cause serious problems for the entire region and hence needs to be studied thoroughly.     

On rising temperature trends of Karachi in Pakistan

Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan. The temperature change in Karachi is studied in this research by analyzing the time series data of mean maximum temperature (MMxT), mean minimum temperature (MMiT) and mean annual temperature (MAT) from 1947 to 2005 (59 years). Data is analyzed in three parts by running linear regression and by taking anomalies of all time periods: (a) whole period from 1947–2005; (b) phase one 1947–1975 and (c) phase two 1976–2005. During 1947 to 2005 MMxT has increased about 4.6°C, MMiT has no change and MAT has increased 2.25°C. During 1947–1975, MMxT increased 1.9°C, in this period there is − 1.3°C decrease in MMiT and MAT has raised upto 0.3°C. During 1976–2005, the MMxT, MMiT and MAT increased 2.7°C, 1.2°C and 1.95°C, respectively. The analysis shows significantly the role of extreme vulnerability of MMxT in rising the temperature of Karachi than the MMiT.     

Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios

Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year (1971–2000) crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4°C. Within a water regime, increase in CO₂ concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO₂ level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO₂ level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO₂ level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers.     

Seismic sources for southern Pakistan and seismic hazard assessment of Karachi

Natural Hazards - Karachi is Pakistan’s largest city with population exceeding 18 million and is amongst the top five most congested cities in the world. Karachi has experienced no earthquake...     

The use of watershed geomorphic data in flash flood susceptibility zoning: a case study of the Karnaphuli and Sangu river basins of Bangladesh

Natural Hazards - The occurrence of heavy rainfall in the south-eastern hilly region of Bangladesh makes this area highly susceptible to recurrent flash flooding. As the region is the commercial...     

What about reservoirs? Questioning anthropogenic and climatic interferences on water availability

Water resources in semi-arid regions like the Mediterranean Basin are highly vulnerable because of the high variability of weather systems. Additionally, climate change is altering the timing and pattern of water availability in a region where growing populations are placing extra demands on water supplies. Importantly, how reservoirs and dams have an influence on the amount of water resources available is poorly quantified. Therefore, we examine the impact of reservoirs on water resources together with the impact of climate change in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment. We simulated the Susurluk basin (23.779-km²) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We generate results for with (RSV) and without reservoirs (WRSV) scenarios. We run simulations for current and future conditions using dynamically downscaled outputs of the MPI-ESM-MR general circulation model under two greenhouse gas relative concentration pathways (RCPs) in order to reveal the coupled effect of reservoir and climate impacts. Water resources were then converted to their usages – blue water (water in aquifers and rivers), green water storage (water in the soil) and green water flow (water losses by evaporation and transpiration). The results demonstrate that all water resources except green water flow are projected to decrease under all RCPs compared to the reference period, both long-term and at seasonal scales. However, while water scarcity is expected in the future, reservoir storage is shown to be adequate to overcome this problem. Nevertheless, reservoirs reduce the availability of water, particularly in soil moisture stores, which increases the potential for drought by reducing streamflow. Furthermore, reservoirs cause water losses through evaporation from their open surfaces. We conclude that pressures to protect society from economic damage by building reservoirs have a strong impact on the fluxes of watersheds. This is additional to the effect of climate change on water resources.