A very large scale GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian sandstone aquifer in Eastern Sahara (Egypt,northern Sudan and eastern Libya)

A three-dimensional GIS-based groundwater flow model for the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the eastern Sahara was developed and calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The model was used to simulate the response of the aquifer to climatic changes that occurred during the last 25,000 years. The simulation results indicated that the groundwater in this aquifer was formed by infiltration during the wet periods 20,000 and 5,000 years b.p. The recharge of groundwater due to regional groundwater flow from more humid areas in the south was excluded. It also indicates that the Nubian Aquifer System is a fossil aquifer, which had been in an unsteady state condition for the last 3,000 years.

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Resumen Fue desarrollado un modelo de flujo de agua subterránea en tres dimensiones, basado en un SIG, para el Acuífero Arenisca Nubian en el Sahara Oriental, el cual fue calibrado para condiciones de estado estacionario y transitorio. El modelo se usó para simular la respuesta del acuífero a los cambios climáticos que ocurrieron durante los últimos 25000 años. Los resultados de esta simulación indicaron que el agua subterránea en este acuífero, se formó por infiltración, durante los períodos húmedos que hubo hace 20000 y 5000 años, antes del presente. Fue excluida la recarga del acuífero debida a un flujo regional de agua subterránea proveniente de áreas con un clima más húmedo en el sur. El modelo también muestra, que el Sistema Acuífero Nubian es un acuífero fósil, el cual ha permanecido en una condición de estado no estacionario, durante los últimos tres mil años.

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Résumé Pour laquifère gréseux Nubien de Sahara -Est on a mis au points un modèle tridimensionnel, basé sur GIS. Le modèle a été calibré tant pour lécoulement stationnaire que pour lécoulement transitoire. On a simulé après la réponse de laquifère aux changements climatiques des derniers 25000 ans. Les résultats des simulations indiquent que la nappe a été rechargée par des infiltrations pendant une période humide qui sétend 5000 et 20000 ans, dès temps actuel. On na pas pris en compte la recharge de laquifère par la zone plus humide située dans sa partie sud. Le modèle indique aussi que leau de laquifère Nubien est une eau fossile qui a eu un écoulement transitoire pendant les derniers 3000 ans.

     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.