Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.     

Mid-infrared spectra of the shocked Murchison CM chondrite: Comparison with astronomical observations of dust in debris disks

We present laboratory mid-infrared transmission/absorption spectra obtained from matrix of the hydrated Murchison CM meteorite experimentally shocked at peak pressures of 10-49 GPa, and compare them to astronomical observations of circumstellar dust in different stages of the formation of planetary systems. The laboratory spectra of the Murchison samples exhibit characteristic changes in the infrared features. A weakly shocked sample (shocked at 10 GPa) shows almost no changes from the unshocked sample dominated by hydrous silicate (serpentine). Moderately shocked samples (21-34 GPa) have typical serpentine features gradually replaced by bands of amorphous material and olivine with increasing shock pressure. A strongly shocked sample (36 GPa) shows major changes due to decomposition of the serpentine and due to devolatilization. A shock melted sample (49 GPa) shows features of olivine recrystallized from melted material.The infrared spectra of the shocked Murchison samples show similarities to astronomical spectra of dust in various young stellar objects and debris disks. The spectra of highly shocked Murchison samples (36 and 49 GPa) are similar to those of dust in the debris disks of HD113766 and HD69830, and the transitional disk of HD100546. The moderately shocked samples (21-34 GPa) exhibit spectra similar to those of dust in the debris disks of Beta Pictoris and BD+20307, and the transitional disk of GM Aur. An average of the spectra of all Murchison samples (0-49 GPa) has a similarity to the spectrum of the older protoplanetary disk of SU Auriga. In the gas-rich transitional and protoplanetary disks, the abundances of amorphous silicates and gases have widely been considered to be a primary property. However, our study suggests that impact processing may play a significant role in generating secondary amorphous silicates and gases in those disks. Infrared spectra of the shocked Murchison samples also show similarities to the dust from comets (C/2002 V1, C/2001 RX14, 9P/Tempel 1, and Hale Bopp), suggesting that the comets also contain shocked Murchison-like material.     

The Contribution of Asteroid Dust to the Interplanetary Dust Cloud: The Impact of ULYSSES Results on the Understanding of Dust Production in the Asteroid Belt and of the Formation of the IRAS Dust Bands

Investigations of the zodiacal dust cloud give evidence for a significant contribution of asteroidal dust to the interplanetary dust cloud, a result which can now be compared to measurements of the ULYSSES dust detector during its passage of the asteroid belt. Especially we discuss the ULYSSES data with respect to the IRAS dust bands and consider geometric selection effects for the detector. From calculations of radiation pressure forces, we conclude that particles in the IRAS dust bands with massesm≥ 10⁻¹²g will stay in bound orbits after their release from asteroid fragmentation. This is already in the mass range (10⁻¹⁶–10⁻⁷g) of particles detectable with the dust detector onboard ULYSSES. The absence of these particles in the ULYSSES data cannot be explained exclusively in terms of their small detection probability. Thus we conclude that the size distribution of particles in the IRAS dust bands most probably cannot be continued to the submicrometer range. Concerning the global structure of the inner zodiacal cloud (i.e., about solar distancer< 3.5 AU) the ULYSSES data are not inconsistent with present models. Recent estimates of the total mass of the interplanetary cloud require a dust production rate of about 10¹⁴g/year of which a significant amount is assumed to result from the asteroids. Our estimate for the production of dust particles in an IRAS dust band, based on the assumption that the dust band results from a single destruction of an asteroid of 100 km size, yields a production rate of 10¹⁰g/year. Other models of the IRAS dust bands suggest production rates up to 10¹²g/year and also cannot provide a significant source of the dust cloud.     

Photometric,spectral phase and temperature effects on 4 Vesta and HED meteorites: Implications for the Dawn mission

Phase angle and temperature are two important parameters that affect the photometric and spectral behavior of planetary surfaces in telescopic and spacecraft data. We have derived photometric and spectral phase functions for the Asteroid 4 Vesta, the first target of the Dawn mission, using ground-based telescopes operating at visible and near-infrared wavelengths (0.4–2.5 μm). Photometric lightcurve observations of Vesta were conducted on 15 nights at a phase angle range of 3.8–25.7° using duplicates of the seven narrowband Dawn Framing Camera filters (0.4–1.0 μm). Rotationally resolved visible (0.4–0.7 μm) and near-IR spectral observations (0.7–2.5 μm) were obtained on four nights over a similar phase angle range. Our Vesta photometric observations suggest the phase slope is between 0.019 and 0.029 mag/deg. The G parameter ranges from 0.22 to 0.37 consistent with previous results (e.g., Lagerkvist, C.-I., Magnusson, P., Williams, I.P., Buontempo, M.E., Argyle, R.W., Morrison, L.V. [1992]. Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Ser. 94, 43–71; Piironen, J., Magnusson, P., Lagerkvist, C.-I., Williams, I.P., Buontempo, M.E., Morrison, L.V. [1997]. Astron. Astrophys. Suppl. Ser. 121, 489–497; Hasegawa, S. et al. [2009]. Lunar Planet. Sci. 40. ID 1503) within the uncertainty. We found that in the phase angle range of 0° < α ? 25° for every 10° increase in phase angle Vesta’s visible slope (0.5–0.7 μm) increases 20%, Band I and Band II depths increase 2.35% and 1.5% respectively, and the BAR value increase 0.30. Phase angle spectral measurements of the eucrite Moama in the lab show a decrease in Band I and Band II depths and BAR from the lowest phase angle 13° to 30°, followed by possible small increases up to 90°, and then a dramatic drop between 90° and 120° phase angle. Temperature-induced spectral effects shift the Band I and II centers of the pyroxene bands to longer wavelengths with increasing temperature. We have derived new correction equations using a temperature series (80–400 K) of HED meteorite spectra that will enable interpretation of telescopic and spacecraft spectral data using laboratory calibrations at room temperature (300 K).     

Dust Detection by the Wave Instrument on STEREO: Nanoparticles Picked up by the Solar Wind?

Solar Physics - The STEREO wave instrument (S/WAVES) has detected a very large number of intense voltage pulses. We suggest that these events are produced by impact ionisation of nanoparticles...