Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of M S: m b Seismic Event Screening Analysis

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently in a ratification phase. Under the CTBT, an International Monitoring System (IMS) of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors is operational, and the data from the IMS is analysed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the null hypothesis H ₀: explosion characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). The established magnitude used for event size is the body-wave magnitude (denoted m _b) computed from the initial segment of a seismic waveform. IDC screening analysis is applied to events with m _b greater than 3.5. The Rayleigh wave magnitude (denoted M _S) is a measure of later arriving surface wave energy. Magnitudes are measurements of seismic energy that include adjustments (physical correction model) for path and distance effects between event and station. Relative to m _b, earthquakes generally have a larger M _S magnitude than explosions. This article proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using M _S and m _b that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H ₀: explosion characteristics.     

Tag loss and movement of stocked yearling rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in southwestern Australia

Rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, have been stocked in southwestern Australia since the 1930s. Trials at a research station maintained 868 tagged yearling O. mykiss (age: 14 months; standard length: 208 mm) for up to 375 days. The mean tag loss rate was 0.12% ± 0.040% per day for both single- and double-tagged fish. The tag loss rate was used to interpret tag return data from 7030 single-tagged yearlings stocked into three river systems in southwestern Australia. Recaptures indicated that O. mykiss survived into their second season in all rivers, with the maximum time at liberty of 21 months (longevity of at least 35 months). Upstream and downstream movements of O. mykiss increased with time, although 29% of recaptures were reported from the stocking site. Significantly more O. mykiss were recaptured from the Warren River, and differences remained even when corrected for stocking levels; angler effort had a marginal effect on return rates. Higher return rates from the Warren River may be due to availability of suitable habitat (stream cover, cooler water) for O. mykiss. Results allow the stocking regime to be reviewed to improve fishery performance.     

Predictions of MESSENGER Neutron Spectrometer measurements for Mercury's north polar region

From radar images of Mercury's poles and MESSENGER Neutron Spectrometer (NS) measurements obtained during the spacecraft's flybys of Mercury, predictions of neutron count rates and their uncertainties are calculated for Mercury's north polar region as of the end of the MESSENGER primary orbital mission. If Mercury's poles contain large amounts of water ice, as has been suggested on the basis of the radar data, then during the one-year-long orbital mission the NS should detect signals indicative of excess polar hydrogen with a significance of at least 4σ, where σ is the standard deviation derived from Poisson counting statistics. If the polar deposits are not enriched with hydrogen, but are dominated by other elements, such as sulfur, then the MESSENGER neutron measurements should be able to confirm the absence of deposits having surface concentrations in excess of 50 wt% H₂O on permanently shadowed floors of craters near Mercury's north pole. Because of the large spatial footprint of the NS data, individual polar deposits will not be spatially resolved, but longitudinal asymmetries may be detected if residual systematic uncertainties are sufficiently low.     

Relative sea‐level change and postglacial isostatic adjustment along the coast of south Devon,United Kingdom

Previous sea‐level studies suggest that southwest Britain has the fastest subsiding coastline in the United Kingdom, but tide‐gauge data, GPS and gravity measurements and geophysical models show little evidence of anomalous subsidence in this region. In this paper we present 15 new sea‐level index points from four coastal barrier systems in south Devon. Eight are from compaction‐free basal sediments and others were corrected for autocompaction. Our data suggest that relative sea level along the south Devon coastline has risen by 21 ± 4 m during the past 9000 years. Sea‐level rise slowed during the middle and late Holocene and a rise of 8 ± 1 m has occurred since ca. 7000 cal. yr BP. Anomalous ages for many rejected points are attributed to sediment reworking during barrier transgression. The relative sea‐level history during the early and middle Holocene shows a good fit with geophysical model predictions, but the geological and modelled data diverge in the later Holocene. Unlike the geophysical models, sea‐level index points cannot differentiate between late Holocene relative sea‐level histories of south Devon and southwest Cornwall. It is suggested that this discrepancy can be resolved by obtaining additional high‐quality sea‐level index points covering the past 4000 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of the Re decay constant by cross calibration of Re-Os molybdenite and U-Pb zircon chronometers in magmatic ore systems

The past decade has seen renewed interest in ¹⁸⁷Re-¹⁸⁷Os geochronology using a variety of matrices including sulfide minerals, shales and meteorites. The most widely used value of the ¹⁸⁷Re decay constant (λ¹⁸⁷Re) is 1.666 ± 0.005 × 10⁻¹¹ a⁻¹ (±0.31%), which is based on cross calibration of Re-Os and Pb-Pb chronometers for certain meteorites [Smoliar M. I., Walker R. J., and Morgan J. W. (1996) Re-Os isotope constraints on the age of Group IIA, IIIA, IVA, and IVB iron meteorites. Science271, 1099-1102]. However, other recent studies have yielded alternate values of λ¹⁸⁷Re, based upon either direct counting experiments or analysis of meteorites. Here, we provide an independent assessment of λ¹⁸⁷Re, using methodology, sample materials, and preparation of Os standard solutions different from those of Smoliar et al. (1996). Combining Re-Os age data for molybdenite formed in magmatic ore deposits, with the U-Pb zircon age of the magmatic rocks, a refined λ¹⁸⁷Re value is determined by averaging 11 individual cross-calibration experiments spanning ca. 2700 Ma of Earth history. Using the U decay constants of Jaffey [Jaffey A. H., Flynn K. F., Glendenin L. E., Bentley W. C., and Essling A. M. (1971) Precision measurement of half-lives and specific activities of 235U and 238U. Phys. Rev.4, 1889-1906], a value for λ¹⁸⁷Re of 1.6668 ± 0.0034 × 10⁻¹¹ a⁻¹ is determined. Using the λ²³⁸U value of Jaffey et al. (1971) and λ²³⁵U value of Schoene [Schoene B., Crowley J. L., Condon D. J., Schmitz M. D., and Bowring S. A. (2006) Reassessing the uranium decay constants for geochronology using ID-TIMS U-Pb data. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta70, 426-445], a value for λ¹⁸⁷Re of 1.6689 ± 0.0031 × 10⁻¹¹ a⁻¹ is determined. These values are nominally higher (ca. 0.1 and ca. 0.2%) than the value determined by Smoliar et al. [Smoliar M. I., Walker R. J., and Morgan J. W. (1996) Re-Os isotope constraints on the age of Group IIA, IIIA, IVA, and IVB iron meteorites. Science271, 1099-1102], but within calculated uncertainty. Further refinement of λ¹⁸⁷Re by cross calibrating the molybdenite and U-Pb zircon chronometers should be possible by utilizing high precision, single-grain, chemical abrasion zircon U-Pb analyses.     

A multi‐proxy study of Holocene lake development,lake settlement and vegetation history in central Ireland

Stratigraphical investigations, geomorphological mapping, and diatom, plant macrofossil and pollen analyses were undertaken in and around two lakes in central Ireland to establish correlations between changes in lake conditions and catchment vegetation throughout the Holocene. Similar investigations of an adjacent mire reveal early Holocene changes in lake level and area. The palaeoecological data show high correlations related to variations in lake depth and area, catchment vegetation type, organic inputs and trophic status. Catchment‐scale deforestation is gradual and occurs through the Bronze and the Iron Ages, and the construction of a crannog in the early Medieval period (seventh century AD ) appears to be associated with a widespread increase in deforestation and mixed agriculture in the catchment. Both pollen and plant macrofossils suggest that one of the crannogs was used for crop storage in addition to domestic and any other activities. In the early to middle Holocene similarities in the proxy‐data appear to be climatically driven through changing lake levels and areal extent whereas the later Holocene record is clearly dominated by anthropogenic changes within the catchment and the construction of crannogs in the lakes. The advantages of combining multi‐proxy indicators of lake hydroecology with the vegetation record are illustrated. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Swell impact on reef sedimentary processes: A case study of the La Reunion fringing reef

Two surface‐sediment sampling campaigns were carried out in November and December 2003, before and after a strong swell event, in the back‐reef area of a microtidal fringing reef on the western coast of La Reunion, Indian Ocean. The spatial distributions of the mean grain size, sorting and skewness parameters are determined, and grain‐size trend analysis is performed to estimate the main sediment transport pathways in the reef. The results of this analysis are compared with hydrodynamic records obtained in the same reef area during fair weather conditions and during swell events. Sediment dynamics inferred from the hydrodynamic records show that significant sediment erosion and transport occur only during swell events and under strongly agitated sea states. Under normal wave conditions, there is a potential for onshore sediment transport from the reef‐flat to the back‐reef, but this transport is episodic and occurs principally during high‐tide stages. Sediment transport trends revealed by the grain‐size trend analysis method show onshore and alongshore low‐energy transport processes that are in agreement with the hydrodynamic records. The grain‐size trend analysis method also provides evidence of an offshore high‐energy transport trend that could be interpreted as a real physical process associated with return flow from the shore to the reef. The impact of swell on the reef sediment dynamics is clearly demonstrated by onshore and alongshore transport. Considering different combinations of the vector transport trends computed through the grain‐size trend analysis approach, more realistic and pertinent results can be obtained by applying an exclusive OR operation (XOR case) on the vectors. The main results presented here highlight a trend towards the accumulation of carbonate sands in the back‐reef area of the fringing reef. These sediments can only be resuspended during extreme events such as storms or tropical cyclones.