A reconstruction of extratropical Indo-Pacific sea-level pressure patterns during the Medieval Climate Anomaly

Subtropical and extratropical proxy records of wind field, sea level pressure (SLP), temperature and hydrological anomalies from South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, Patagonian South America and Antarctica were used to reconstruct the Indo-Pacific extratropical southern hemisphere sea-level pressure anomaly (SLPa) fields for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA ~700–1350 CE) and transition to the Little Ice Age (LIA 1350–1450 CE). The multivariate array of proxy data were simultaneously evaluated against global climate model output in order to identify climate state analogues that are most consistent with the majority of proxy data. The mean SLP and SLP anomaly patterns derived from these analogues illustrate the evolution of low frequency changes in the extratropics. The Indo-Pacific extratropical mean climate state was dominated by a strong tropical interaction with Antarctica emanating from: (1) the eastern Indian and south-west Pacific regions prior to 1100 CE, then, (2) the eastern Pacific evolving to the central Pacific La Niña-like pattern interacting with a +ve SAM to 1300 CE. A relatively abrupt shift to –ve SAM and the central Pacific El Niño-like pattern occurred at ~1300. A poleward (equatorward) shift in the subtropical ridge occurred during the MCA (MCA–LIA transition). The Hadley Cell expansion in the Australian and Southwest Pacific, region together with the poleward shift of the zonal westerlies is contemporaneous with previously reported Hadley Cell expansion in the North Pacific and Atlantic regions, and suggests that bipolar climate symmetry was a feature of the MCA.     

A multi-criteria evaluation model of earthquake vulnerability in Victoria,British Columbia

Researchers have recently examined the geographic variability of the vulnerability of populations to earthquakes. These studies focus mainly on the complex modelling of geophysical processes or identification of socio-economically disadvantaged populations. However, no studies to date have integrated different components of vulnerability with metrics of travel distance to hospitals and trauma centres (systemic vulnerability). We argue that this previously unaccounted component is an important conceptual and practical aspect of earthquake vulnerability. Accordingly, this paper presents a multi-criteria model for combining physical, social, and systemic components, moving towards a more comprehensive assessment of vulnerability. An analytic hierarchy process is used to produce a place-specific index of social vulnerability, which we combine with soil liquefaction and amplification index and a road network model for access to hospitals and trauma services. Using a geographic information system, we implemented this model for the Greater Victoria region (483 km², 2011 population: 345,000) in British Columbia, Canada. Clustering of total vulnerability was found in outlying areas, highlighting the importance of access to trauma centres. We conclude by identifying challenges in measuring earthquake vulnerability and advocate integration of systemic vulnerability components in natural hazards research.     

An evaluation of a traditional and a neural net modelling approach to flood forecasting for an upland catchment

This study evaluates two (of the many) modelling approaches to flood forecasting for an upland catchment (the River South Tyne at Haydon Bridge, England). The first modelling approach utilizes ‘traditional’ hydrological models. It consists of a rainfall–runoff model (the probability distributed model, or PDM) for flow simulation in the upper catchment. Those flows are then routed to the lower catchment using two kinematic wave (KW) routing models. When run in forecast‐mode, the PDM and KW models utilize model updating procedures. The second modelling approach uses neural network models, which use a ‘pattern‐matching’ process to produce model forecasts.Following calibration, the models are evaluated in terms of their fit to continuous stage data and flood event magnitudes and timings within a validation period. Forecast times of 1 h, 2 h and 4 h are selected (the catchment has a response time of approximately 4 h). The ‘traditional’ models generally perform adequately at all three forecast times. The neural networks produce reasonable forecasts of small‐ to medium‐sized flood events but have difficulty in forecasting the magnitude of the larger flood events in the validation period. Possible modifications to the latter approach are discussed. © Crown copyright 2002. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's stationery office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling surface magnetic field evolution on AB Doradûs due to diffusion and surface differential rotation

From Zeeman–Doppler images of the young, rapidly-rotating K0 dwarf AB Doradûs, we have created a potential approximation to the observed radial magnetic field and have evolved it over 30 d subject to the observed surface differential rotation , meridional flow and various diffusion rates. Assuming that the dark polar cap seen in Doppler images of this star is caused by the presence of a unipolar field, we have shown that the observed differential rotation will shear this field to produce the observed high-latitude band of unidirectional azimuthal field. By cross-correlating the evolved fields with the initial field each day we have followed the decay with time of the cross-correlation function. Over 30 d it decays by only 10 per cent. This contrasts with the results of Barnes et al. , who show that on this time-scale the spot distribution of He699 is uncorrelated. We propose that this is due to the effects of flux emergence changing the spot distributions.     

Stellar differential rotation from direct star-spot tracking

On the Sun, the rotation periods of individual sunspots not only trace the latitude-dependence of the surface rotation rate, but also provide clues as to the amount of subsurface fluid shear. In this paper we present the first measurements of stellar differential rotation made by tracking the rotation of individual star-spots with sizes comparable to the largest sunspots. To achieve this we re-analyse four sequences of densely sampled, high signal-to-noise ratio echelle spectra of AB Doradus spanning several stellar rotations in 1996 December. Using spectral subtraction, least-squares deconvolution and matched-filter analysis, we demonstrate that it is possible to measure directly the velocity amplitudes and rotation periods of large numbers of individual star-spots at low to intermediate latitude. We derive values for the equatorial rotation rate and the magnitude of the surface differential rotation, both of which are in excellent agreement with those obtained by Donati & Collier Cameron from cross-correlation of Doppler images derived a year earlier in 1995 December, and with a re-analysis of the 1996 data by the χ ² landscape method. The differences between the rotation rates of individual spots and the fitted differential rotation law are substantially greater than the observational errors. The smaller spots show a greater scatter about the mean relation than the larger ones, which suggests that buffeting by turbulent supergranular flows could be responsible.     

The global magnetic topology of AB Doradus

We have used Zeeman–Doppler maps of the surface field of the young, rapid rotator AB Dor  ( P _rot=0.514 d)  to extrapolate the coronal field, assuming it to be potential. We find that the topology of the large-scale field is very similar in all three years for which we have images. The corona divides cleanly into regions of open and closed field. The open field originates in two mid-latitude regions of opposite polarity separated by about 180° of longitude. The closed field region forms a torus extending almost over each pole, with an axis that runs through these two longitudes. We have investigated the effect on the global topology of different forms of flux in the unobservable hemisphere and in the dark polar spot where the Zeeman signal is suppressed. The flux distribution in the unobservable hemisphere affects only the low-latitude topology, whereas the imposition of a unidirectional polar field forces the polar cap to be open. This contradicts observations that suggest that the closed field corona extends to high latitudes and leads us to propose that the polar cap may be composed of multipolar regions.     

A search for starlight reflected from HD 75289b

We have used a Doppler tomographic analysis to conduct a deep search for the starlight reflected from the planetary companion to HD 75289. In four nights on VLT(UT2)/UVES in 2003 January, we obtained 684 high-resolution echelle spectra with a total integration time of 26 h. We establish an upper limit on the geometric albedo of the planet   p < 0.12  (to the 99.9 per cent significance level) at the most probable orbital inclination   i ≃ 60°  , assuming a grey albedo, a Venus-like phase function and a planetary radius   R _p= 1.6 R_Jup  . We are able to rule out some combinations of the predicted planetary radius and atmospheric albedo models with high, reflective cloud decks.