Application of a Bayesian approach to stochastic delineation of capture zones

This paper presents a Bayesian Monte Carlo method for evaluating the uncertainty in the delineation of well capture zones and its application to a wellfield in a heterogeneous, multiaquifer system. In the method presented, Bayes' rule is used to update prior distributions for the unknown parameters of the stochastic model for the hydraulic conductivity, and to calculate probability-based weights for parameter realizations using head residuals. These weights are then assigned to the corresponding capture zones obtained using forward particle tracking. Statistical analysis of the set of weighted protection zones results in a probability distribution for the capture zones. The suitability of the Bayesian stochastic method for a multilayered system is investigated, using the wellfield Het Rot at Nieuwrode, Belgium, located in a three-layered aquifer system, as an example. The hydraulic conductivity of the production aquifer is modeled as a spatially correlated random function with uncertain parameters. The aquitard and overlying unconfined aquifer are assigned random, homogeneous conductivities. The stochastic results are compared with deterministic capture zones obtained with a calibrated model for the area. The predictions of the stochastic approach are more conservative and indicate that parameter uncertainty should be taken into account in the delineation of well capture zones.     

Generating MODFLOW grids from boundary representation solid models

Complex stratigraphy can be difficult to simulate in MODFLOW models. MODFLOW uses a structured grid that requires that each grid layer be continuous throughout the model domain. This makes it difficult to explicitly represent common features such as pinchouts and embedded seams in a MODFLOW model. In this paper, we describe a method for automatically generating MODFLOW-compatible grids from boundary-representation solid models. Solid models are data structures developed originally for computer-aided design applications that define the geometry of three-dimensional objects. Solid models can be used to represent arbitrarily complex stratigraphy. The elevations defined by the solids are then extracted from the solids in a manner that preserves the continuous-layer requirement imposed by MODFLOW. Two basic approaches are described: The first method adjusts the MODFLOW grid dimensions (layer elevations) to fit the solid model boundaries, and the second method creates a regular MODFLOW grid and adjusts the material properties to match the changes in stratigraphy. One of the main benefits of using solid models to define stratigraphy for MODFLOW models is that it provides a grid-independent definition of the layer elevations that can be used to immediately re-create the MODFLOW grid geometry after any change to the grid resolution.     

Near-field dispersion of produced formation water (PFW) in the Adriatic Sea: an integrated numerical-chemical approach

Produced formation waters (PFWs), a by-product of both oil and gas extraction, are separated from hydrocarbons onboard oil platforms and then discharged into the sea through submarine outfalls. The dispersion of PFWs into the environment may have a potential impact on marine ecosystems. We reproduce the initial PFW-seawater mixing process by means of the UM3 model applied to offshore natural gas platforms currently active in the Northern Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea). Chemical analyses lead to the identification of a chemical tracer (diethylene glycol) which enables us to follow the fate of PFWs into receiving waters. The numerical simulations are realized in different seasonal conditions using both measured oceanographic data and tracer concentrations. The numerical results show the spatial and temporal plume development in different stratification and ambient current conditions. The analytical approach measures concentrations of the diethylene glycol at a maximum sampling distance of 25 m. The results show a good agreement between field observations and model predictions in the near-field area. The integration of numerical results with chemical analyses also provides new insight to plan and optimize PFW monitoring and discharge.     

Testing the applicability of a Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) to assessing the ecological quality of soft-bottom benthic communities, in the South America Atlantic region

Recently, several monitoring programmes have been undertaken to evaluate the impact of different anthropogenic activities, upon a range of coastal ecosystems located in the South-western Atlantic. In the present contribution, the applicability of the AZTI's Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) is tested, to establish the benthic health of the ecosystem using these data sets. As the AMBI was created previously for use in European estuarine and coastal environments, its general applicability to new geographical locations is discussed. In general, the results are in agreement with those obtained using traditional univariate and multivariate methods. Some inconsistent results are observed, when low abundances and/or number of taxa are recorded in the samples. Moreover, when the macrofauna samples are dominated by large nematodes, the classification of the benthic ecosystem health using AMBI is not consistent with previous results achieved applying other statistical techniques. Thus, parallel to the application of this index to a wider extend, the complementary use of different indices and/or methods is recommended to assess confidently the environmental quality of a coastal area.     

Developing a Radiative Shock Experiment Relevant to Astrophysics

We assume that internal shocks of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) consist of multiple sub-jets with a collimation half-angle of about several times gamma-1i, where gammai is the Lorentz factor of each sub-jet. If by chance a sub-jet is first emitted off-axis from the line of sight, the observed peak energy can be in the X-ray region. Next, if by chance a subsequent sub-jet is emitted along the line of sight, then the peak energy will be in the gamma-ray region and the gamma ray may arrive after the X-ray precursor from the former sub-jet depending on parameters. This model predicts a new class of GRBs with extremely weak and short gamma-ray emission but X-ray precursors and/or postcursors as well as an afterglow.     

用台阵资料研究地震散射

应用高频地震台阵资料我们能研究频带１～１０Ｈz同伯地震波场空间和时间的特征。作者 对ＮＯＲＥＳＳ、ＦＩＮＥＳＡ和ＡＲＣＥＳＳ的地震波散射进行了研究。研究应用了两种主要方法,即尾波的频率－波数分析和地震相位的相干性分析。对区域地震记录,Ｌg尾波的频率－波数分析表明Ｌg到Ｌg的散射是主要的,且散射开始集中在正向,在尾波的后面变成了均匀的反射散射。Ｐ尾波的情况更加复杂,尽管研究的所有情况表明能量是集中的方位