Atmospheric ultrafine aerosol number concentration and its correlation with vehicular flow at two sites in the western Himalayan region: Kullu-Manali,India

The concentration of ultrafine aerosol particles of aitken and nucleation mode having size in the range of 1–20 nm was monitored with water-based Condensation Particle Counter. The monitoring was carried out from midnight-to-midnight in every alternate day on a fortnightly basis to represent summer, monsoon and winter (autumn) seasons of 2008 at Mohal (1154 m amsl) and Kothi (2530 m amsl) in Kullu-Manali area of the northwestern Himalayan region of India. The results indicate that diurnal pattern has faint bimodal structure with two peaks, one in morning and the other in evening at both the sites but it is not as distinct as found in plains. There is rather a constant particle density pattern of large magnitude consistent with vehicular movement from morning till evening. The monthly 24 h average particle density gradually picks up from January, increases rapidly in summer months and then decreases in monsoon season at Mohal but at Kothi it keeps on rising from April to October with a slight more increase in September. The particle density is more in summer than in monsoon season at Mohal, a trend opposite to plains. It may be due to the development of warm thermal layer on valley floor while a cold layer develops along snowy hilltops in winter leading to convection of fine particle up the slopes of valley during daytime. At Kothi, the trend is same as it is in continental plains but opposite to Mohal. The relatively more value of particle density in September and October at both the sites may be due to month long International Kullu Dussehra fair in the valley. The vehicular survey conducted agrees well with entire study period averaged diurnal variations and monthly 24 h averaged value of fine particle density. The average value of ultrafine particle density at each hour of a day for entire study period is 20369 ± 1230 Ncm^− 3 and 14389 ± 1464 Ncm^− 3 at Mohal and Kothi sites, respectively. The comparison with earlier results shows a significant increase indicating impact of vehicular onslaught on pure air of this hilly region.     

A study on precursors leading to geomagnetic storms using artificial neural network

Space weather prediction involves advance forecasting of the magnitude and onset time of major geomagnetic storms on Earth. In this paper, we discuss the development of an artificial neural network-based model to study the precursor leading to intense and moderate geomagnetic storms, following halo coronal mass ejection (CME) and related interplanetary (IP) events. IP inputs were considered within a 5-day time window after the commencement of storm. The artificial neural network (ANN) model training, testing and validation datasets were constructed based on 110 halo CMEs (both full and partial halo and their properties) observed during the ascending phase of the 24th solar cycle between 2009 and 2014. The geomagnetic storm occurrence rate from halo CMEs is estimated at a probability of 79%, by this model.     

Study on changes in bed characteristics and friction factor in the presence of wash load in suspension

Results of an experimental study on the effects of different concentrations of wash load on the size of bed features and resistance to flow in a laboratory flume are presented. The experiments were carried out under different hydraulic conditions in a 30 m long, 0.204 m wide and 0.5 m deep tilting flume under clear water condition and in the presence of different concentration of wash load in the flow. The bed material used consisted of uniform sediment of size 0.96 mm. Analysis of the data indicates that the characteristics of the bed features change and friction factor increases in the presence of different concentration of wash load in the flow. The reasons for changes in the characteristics of the bed features and increase in friction factor in the presence of wash load are identified and a relationship for predicting friction factor in the presence of wash load has been established.     

"THREE DIMENSIONAL MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN ESTUARINE REGIONS-- A CASE STUDY OF THE HAIHE RIVER MOUTH" Yuchuan Bai,Huanting SHEN and Shixiong HU

The paper presents the 3D finite element simulation of tidal flow and Sediment transport in the estuarine region of the Haihe river. The proposed model adopts sigma-transformation of the hydrodynamic and sediment transport equations. The hydrodynamic and sediment transport models are verified in case of a simple test problem for which analytical solutions are available. Finally the models are applied to muddy Haihe river estuary of North China and it is claimed that hydrodynamic and sediment transport models give a reliable comparison with the observed field data. However, there are certain discrepancies, and some reasonable questions regarding the present state-of-art, in the modeling of three-dimensional multilevel hydrodynamics and sediment transport, which are provided below for answer.     

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: II. Assumed pdf

Abstract

Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied.     

Hydrological simulation of a conservation bench terrace system in a subhumid climate

Abstract

A finite element model to simulate runoff and soil erosion from agricultural lands has been developed. The sequential solutions of the governing differential equations were found: Richards' equation with a sink term for infiltration and soil water dynamics under cropped conditions; St Venant equation with kinematic wave approximation for overland and channel flow; and sediment continuity equation, for soil erosion. The model developed earlier has been improved to simulate erosion/deposition in impoundments and predicted and observed soil loss values were in reasonably good agreement when the model was tested for a conservation bench terrace (CBT) system. The finite element model was extensively applied to study the hydrological behaviour of a CBT system vis-à-vis the conventional system of sloping borders. The model estimates runoff and soil loss reasonably well, under varying conditions of rainfall and at different crop growth stages. The probable reasons for discrepancies between observation and simulation are reported and discussed. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the effect of various hydrological, soil and topographical parameters, such as ratio of contributing to receiving areas, weir length, depth of impoundment, slope of contributing area, etc. on the flow behaviour in a CBT system.