Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

The free oscillations of an anelastic aspherical earth

Summary. Some century-old results, due to Rayleigh and Routh, have been adapted to investigate the normal mode eigenfrequencies and eigenfunctions of an earth with laterally variable anelasticity and to determine the transient response of such an earth to earthquakes. Using degenerate perturbation theory, the eigenfrequencies are found to first order and the associated eigenfunctions to zeroth order in the small deviations of the Earth away from a spherical perfectly elastic reference earth model. Both the eigenfrequencies and the eigenfunctions are complex and, in addition, the latter are not mutually orthogonal, reflecting the non-Hermitian character of the normal mode eigenvalue problem. The effect of laterally heterogeneous attenuation on the shape of an unresolved multiplet spectrum has been investigated in the surface-wave geometrical-optics limit. Singlet cancellation leads in that limit to the appearance of a single resonance peak whose decay rate or apparent Q ⁻¹ depends only on the average attenuation structure underlying the source—receiver great-circle path.     

Symplectic adaptive algorithm for solving nonlinear two-point boundary value problems in Astrodynamics

In this paper, from a Hamiltonian point of view, the nonlinear optimal control problems are transformed into nonlinear two-point boundary value problems, and a symplectic adaptive algorithm based on the dual variational principle is proposed for solving the nonlinear two-point boundary value problem. The state and the costate variables within a time interval are approximated by using the Lagrange polynomial and the costate variables at two ends of the time interval are taken as independent variables. Then, based on the dual variational principle, the nonlinear two-point boundary value problems are replaced by a system of nonlinear equations which can preserve the symplectic structure of the nonlinear optimal control problem. Furthermore, the computational efficiency of the proposed symplectic algorithm is improved by using the adaptive multi-level iteration idea. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested by the problems of Astrodynamics, such as the optimal orbital rendezvous problem and the optimal orbit transfer between halo orbits.     

Automated Prediction of CMEs Using Machine Learning of CME – Flare Associations

Machine-learning algorithms are applied to explore the relation between significant flares and their associated CMEs. The NGDC flares catalogue and the SOHO/LASCO CME catalogue are processed to associate X and M-class flares with CMEs based on timing information. Automated systems are created to process and associate years of flare and CME data, which are later arranged in numerical-training vectors and fed to machine-learning algorithms to extract the embedded knowledge and provide learning rules that can be used for the automated prediction of CMEs. Properties representing the intensity, flare duration, and duration of decline and duration of growth are extracted from all the associated (A) and not-associated (NA) flares and converted to a numerical format that is suitable for machine-learning use. The machine-learning algorithms Cascade Correlation Neural Networks (CCNN) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) are used and compared in our work. The machine-learning systems predict, from the input of a flare’s properties, if the flare is likely to initiate a CME. Intensive experiments using Jack-knife techniques are carried out and the relationships between flare properties and CMEs are investigated using the results. The predictive performance of SVM and CCNN is analysed and recommendations for enhancing the performance are provided.     

Mars data analysis program special issue no. 2

An extended photometric time series in the J and K bands of Neptune has a complex appearance which appears to require the simultaneous presence of three periodicities plus related harmonics in the (J-K) color. The most apparent of the fundamental periods is N1 = 17.73 hr. The two others are at N2 = 18.56 and N3 = 18.29 hr and may be the result of amplitude modulation of a previously reported period of 18.42 hr. We interpret the presence of multiple periodicity as indicating that distinct systems of zonal winds exist on the planet. We argue that these wind systems are probably confined to moderate or high latitudes on the basis of recent omages of the planet taken in a spectral region of strong CH₄ absorption, and, by analogy to the zonal wind systems that exist in Jupiter's atmosphere, deduce a period of rotation for the body of the planet of 18.2 ± 0.4 hr. Zonal wind contrasts of up to 109 m sec^?1 are implied in the atmosphere of Neptune by these observations.     

Effectiveness of fast electron retention in the magnetic cavern during disturbance of the magnetic field azimuthal symmetry

The loss rate of fast electrons (with an energy much higher than the energy of the plasma electron thermal motion), when they leave a magnetic cavern during a disturbance of the magnetic field azimuthal symmetry, is studied. The cases of point and volume sources of fast particles have been considered. The plasma density in the cavern is supposed to be low, so that collisions of fast electrons with plasma particles can be neglected. The effect of the electric field on particle motion is neglected because it is assumed that the electric charge particles outgoing from the cavern is compensated by the counter current of plasma conductivity electrons. The dependence of the loss value on the harmonic number and the amplitude of the cavern boundary radius disturbance has been obtained.     

Twisted Flux Tube Emergence Evidenced in Longitudinal Magnetograms: Magnetic Tongues

Bipolar active regions (ARs) are thought to be formed by twisted flux tubes, as the presence of such twist is theoretically required for a cohesive rise through the whole convective zone. We use longitudinal magnetograms to demonstrate that a clear signature of a global magnetic twist is present, particularly, during the emergence phase when the AR is forming in a much weaker pre-existing magnetic field environment. The twist is characterised by the presence of elongated polarities, called “magnetic tongues”, which originate from the azimuthal magnetic field component. The tongues first extend in size before retracting when the maximum magnetic flux is reached. This implies an apparent rotation of the magnetic bipole. Using a simple half-torus model of an emerging twisted flux tube having a uniform twist profile, we derive how the direction of the polarity inversion line and the elongation of the tongues depend on the global twist in the flux rope. Using a sample of 40 ARs, we verify that the helicity sign, determined from the magnetic polarity distribution pattern, is consistent with the sign derived from the photospheric helicity flux computed from magnetogram time series, as well as from other proxies such as sheared coronal loops, sigmoids, flare ribbons and/or the associated magnetic cloud observed in situ at 1 AU. The evolution of the tongues observed in emerging ARs is also closely similar to the evolution found in recent MHD numerical simulations. We also found that the elongation of the tongue formed by the leading magnetic polarity is significantly larger than that of the following polarity. This newly discovered asymmetry is consistent with an asymmetric Ω-loop emergence, trailing the solar rotation, which was proposed earlier to explain other asymmetries in bipolar ARs.     

A light subsystem inside a gravitating triaxial ellipsoid

We obtain the possible ellipsoidal and hyperboloidal equilibrium figures of the light subsystem with internal fluxes of matter of constant vorticity inside a gravitating homogeneous triaxial ellipsoid. We obtain the domains of stability of these equilibrium figures with respect to second-form oscillations.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 2, 1995.     

A new Bolivia-USSR astronomical observatory and its astrometric activities

In 1982 a Bolivia-USSR astronomical observatory began its activities near Tarija, Bolivia. Observations of 200 000 faint stars, 2822 bright stars (m6) and Halley's comet have been made with the expedition's astrograph.