Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events because of their high sensitivity to the embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for predictions of large events. Our results suggest a new approach for predictions of large (typically X-class) solar flares based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.     

Neutron stars in the multidimensional einstein theory of gravitation

The radius, mass, total number of baryons, and other parameters of static, spherically symmetric, superdense stars are calculated. A model with one Ricci-flat inner space of arbitrary dimensionality and the approximation p₁=?0.5ε + ap for additional components of the energy — momentum tensor are used (ε and ρ are the total energy density and the pressure of the stellar matter and a is a fitting parameter). In the case of white dwarfs, the results of the multidimensional theory do not depend on the dimensionality D of space-time for ?10 ? a ? 10 and coincide with the analogous data of the general theory of relativity (GTR). For neutron stars there is a dependence on D and a. For D>4, in particular, the greatest mass M_max of a neutron star as a function of a has a maximum at 3<a(D) ? 4, which exceeds the greatest mass M _max ⁰ =2.14 M_⊙ in the GTR. A comparison of theoretical results with observational data determines the allowable values of a. Data for PSR 1913 + 16 lead to 0.2 ≤ a ≤ 9.2 in the case of D=26, while the results of [P. C. Joss and S. A. Rappaport, Annu. Rev. Astron. Astrophys.,22, 537 (1984)] lead to the stricter limits 1 ≤ a ≤ 7.4.     

Spectrophotometric observations of variable stars

We present the results of our visual and near-infrared spectrophotometric observations for 77 variable stars obtained during 1971–1991 in Chile, Armenia, and Bolivia. The quasi-monochromatic, extraatmospheric fluxes from the stars are given in absolute energy units (W m^?2 m^?1) at all wavelengths of the spectral range at 2.5-nm intervals.     

Evolving Photospheric Flux Concentrations and Filament Dynamic Changes

We analyze the role of weak photospheric flux concentrations that evolve in a filament channel, in the triggering of dynamic changes in the shape of a filament. The high polarimetric sensitivity of THEMIS allowed us to detect weak flux concentrations (few Gauss) associated with the filament development. The synoptic instruments (MDI, SOLIS) even if their sensitivity is much less than THEMIS were useful to follow any subsequent strengthening of these flux concentrations after their identification in the THEMIS magnetograms. We found that (1) the northern part of the filament develops an Hα barb at the same time that weak minority polarity elements develop near a plage; (2) a section in the southern part of the Hα filament gradually disappears and later reforms at the same time that several mixed-polarity magnetic elements appear, then subsequently cancel or spread away from each other. These changes correspond to increases in EUV emission, as observed by TRACE, EIT, and CDS. This suggests that the plasma is temporarily heated along the filament spine. An idealized sequence of force-free models of this filament channel, based on plasma-supporting magnetic dips occurring in the windings of a very weakly twisted flux tube, naturally explains the evolution of its southern part as being due to changes in the topology of the coronal magnetic field as the photospheric flux concentrations evolve.     

Late Cenozoic depositional history of the western Svalbard continental shelf, controlled by subsidence and climate

Based on a grid of high resolution, single channel seismic lines, this paper addresses the Late Cenozoic evolution of the western Svalbard continental shelf. The seismic structure of the shelf includes at least 16 erosional unconformities, each representing a glacial advance. The evolution during the last approximately one million years has been divided into six main erosional and depositional phases. Differential margin subsidence around a hinge zone is an important controlling mechanism for the accumulation of the sedimentary wedge at the outer shelf. The most significant depositional change appears to be related to a general climatic shift, globally recorded to be centred around 1 Ma. At this level, corresponding to the Upper Regional Unconformity (URU) on the shelf, the depositional regime changed from net erosion to net deposition and shelf aggradation. Of major significance is probably a shift from thick, eroding glaciers with steep ice profiles, to low profile fast flowing ice streams maintained by an increased amount of interglacial and interstadial sediments. The relationship between climatic fluctuations, glacial dynamics and depositional regime is discussed.     

Critical inclination in the main problem of a massive satellite

The classical problem of the critical inclination in artificial satellite theory has been extended to the case when a satellite may have an arbitrary, significant mass and the rotation momentum vector is tilted with respect to the symmetry axis of the planet. If the planet’s potential is restricted to the second zonal harmonic, according to the assumptions of the main problem of the satellite theory, two various phenomena can be observed: a critical inclination that asymptotically tends to the well known negligible mass limit, and a critical tilt that can be attributed to the effect of transforming the gravity field harmonics to a different reference frame. Stability of this particular solution of the two rigid bodies problem is studied analytically using a simple pendulum approximation.     

Possibility of Excitation of Low-ℓ P-Modes by Energetic Solar Transients

We examine the temporal variation of power in low-ℓ modes using GONG data for the period of May 1995–October 2005 and compare this with disk-integrated flare and CME indices. A poor correlation between the running means of Flare Index and mode power is found. A similar result is found for CME Index also. Variations in the running mean mode power corresponding to ℓ = 0 modes with different radial orders are generally stochastic in nature. This behaviour is also reflected in the distribution of mode power.