作为应急反应决策支持系统的实时损失估计:早期震后破坏评估工具(EPEDAT)

北岭地震时,许多新的技术,包括震源数据的实时获取、改进后的损失估计技术、地理信息系统以及不同的卫星监测系统,已经出现或被考虑作为应急管理的资源。然而,这些技术在减轻地震灾害、地震应急反应和震后恢复方面的潜在益处大多是概念性的。从1994年1月17日地震中得到的主要经验之一,就是这些技术为了解和应对重大灾害可提供显著的便利条件,并且这些技术结合起来会贡献出更大的显著效益。北岭地震之后的两年半时间内,在将相对独立的技术结合成一个系统方面迈出了重要一步,该系统对区域性破坏、损失和人口影响提供实时估计.本文将阐述应急服务组织使用的第一个实时损失估计系统的研制、运行和应用情况。     

地球自转长期稳定性的一种解释

古地磁数据显示了在古地磁和热点参照系之间的不到1000km的运动,即100Ma(百万年)期间的真极移,它意味着地球自转轴一直是相当稳定的。这个长期的自转稳定性可以用晚中生代和新生代的大规模板块运动的缓慢变化来解释,只要俯冲带的岩石层是地幔对流导致的地幔密度不均匀性的主要部分。因此,不需要引入其他诸如自转不规则的缓慢再调整之类的机制,就可以解释所观测到的缓慢的真极移。     

汉诺坝玄武岩及大同火山群的岩石学和同位素地球化学

利用主元素、造岩矿物、REE及Sr、Nd、Pb同位素资料,对汉诺坝玄武岩和大同火山群的岩石学、地球化学、地幔源区特征、岩浆的分异和演化、玄武岩岩浆活动的构造条件进行了讨论。     

基于U形卷积神经网络的震相识别与到时拾取方法研究

精确获取震相到时是地震定位和地震走时成像等研究的重要基础.近年来,随着地震台站的不断加密,地震台网监测到的地震数量成倍增长,发展快速、准确、适用性强的震相到时自动拾取算法是地震行业的迫切需求.本文在前人工作基础上,发展了Pg、Sg震相自动识别与到时拾取的U网络算法（Unet_cea）,使用汶川余震和首都圈地震台网记录的89344个不同震级、不同信噪比的样本进行训练和测试.研究表明,U网络能够较好地识别Pg、Sg震相类型和拾取到时,Pg、Sg震相的正确识别率分别为81%和79.1%,与人工标注到时的均方根误差分别为0.41 s和0.54 s.U网络在命中率、均方根误差等性能指标上均明显优于STA/LTA和峰度分析自动拾取方法.研究获得的最优模型可以为区域地震台网的自动处理提供辅助.

     

制图教育在俄罗斯各综合大学的学术与教学课题

制图学教育在俄罗斯高等综合大学已有65年的历史(1929～1994),早在1929年制图专业就已在莫斯科大学地理系创建。当今在俄罗斯培养高技能制图员的综合大学有莫斯科大学、圣彼得堡大学、伊尔库茨克大学、伊热夫斯克大学、萨兰斯克大学、特维尔大学以及最近(1994年)刚刚获得工程技术综合大学地位的老牌国家测量制图高等学校——莫斯科测绘学院。     

由浅源地震矩张量推断的沿琉球岛弧和冲绳海槽的应力场

使用区域(NIED MT)和全球(哈佛大学CMT)矩张量目录研究了琉球岛弧和冲绳海槽的应力场。使用NIED MT目录4年数据和哈佛大学CMT目录24年数据的联合数据集，发现沿琉球岛弧弧前分布的平行弧向的扩张应力区域，并观测到详细的冲绳海槽扩张应力场。除北东端外，该顺弧向扩张在整个琉球岛弧区域都可以观测到。该应力场通过火山链与冲绳海槽的弧后扩张应力场明显分开。由于它存在于正俯冲区域以及弱耦合俯冲区域中，倾斜俯冲的影响不足以解释平行弧向扩张的形成。因而，我们认为弧后张开过程应该在这个平行弧向的扩张中起了重要作用。沿冲绳海槽，在琉球岛弧东南部和中部观测到垂直岛弧方向的扩张应力场，而在冲绳海槽东北部，扩张轴的方向既与岛弧的法向斜交又与板块运动方向斜交。考虑了俯冲板块与弧前和弧后相互作用的二维力学模型是不充分的，因为整个琉球岛弧都观测到平行弧向扩张应力场，而且冲绳海槽东北部的扩张轴与海槽走向斜交。倾斜的弧后应力可能发源于弧后下部或者弧后大陆一侧。解释该现象的最简单的方法之一可能是冲绳海槽东北部的活动断裂作用。     

诊断在天气预报中的作用

本文指出,在天气预报日趋定量化和客观化的今天,预报工作者要避免把客观模式看成“黑盒子”。在相当长的一段时间里,仅使用定量模式可能还不足以满足天气预报的需要,必须继续运用关于大气过程的定性信息。在这当中,诊断分析是关键的步骤。     

DDTs and other chlorinated organic pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls pollution in the surface sediments of Keratsini harbour, Saronikos gulf, Greece

Sediment samples were collected from Keratsini harbour, Saronikos gulf, Greece and were analysed for chlorinated organic pesticides (DDTs, HCB, Lindane) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). High total DDTs values were detected in all the sediments samples ranging from 9.1 to 75.6 mug/g, dry weight. PCBs concentrations range from 47.8 to 351.8 ng/g. The results and especially the high concentrations of DDTs reflect the influence of the industrial and urban wastes in the pollution for the Keratsini harbour environment.     

Correlative changes in metabolism and DNA damage in turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) exposed to benzo[a]pyrene

Juvenile turbot (Scophthalmus maximus) were injected intraperitoneally with either corn oil or 5 mg/kg benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) dissolved in corn oil and sampled I and 3 days after injection. After 1 day, no elevation of 7-ethoxyresorufin O-deethylase (EROD) activity was observed, however bile metabolites (BaP-7,8 dihydrodiol representing 70% of the total metabolites) and a single hepatic DNA adduct spot (0.47 adducts/10(8) nucleotides) identified by 32P-postlabelling were formed. No BaP metabolites or DNA adducts were observed in either control or carrier control fish. Fish sampled after 3 days reported 5-fold higher (P < 0.05) levels of EROD activity, a shift in the bile metabolite profile towards BaP phenol formation (1OH and 30H BaP comprising up to 60% of total metabolites detected) and the formation of two adduct spots (0.86 and 0.71 adducts/10(8) nucleotides). These results show that BaP can be metabolised and form hydrophobic DNA adducts in turbot without EROD elevation. Following EROD elevation, a shift in the profile of both BaP metabolites and BaP metabolite-DNA interactions occurs indicative of other oxidative processes.     

Prevalence and distribution of fecal indicator organisms in South Florida beach sand and preliminary assessment of health effects associated with beach sand exposure

Fecal indicator levels in nearshore waters of South Florida are routinely monitored to assess microbial contamination at recreational beaches. However, samples of sand from the surf zone and upper beach are not monitored which is surprising since sand may accumulate and harbor fecal-derived organisms. This study examined the prevalence of fecal indicator organisms in tidally-affected beach sand and in upper beach sand and compared these counts to levels in the water. Since indicator organisms were statistically elevated in sand relative to water, the study also considered the potential health risks associated with beach use and exposure to sand. Fecal coliforms, Escherichia coli, enterococci, somatic coliphages, and F(+)-specific coliphages were enumerated from sand and water at three South Florida beaches (Ft. Lauderdale Beach, Hollywood Beach, and Hobie Beach) over a 2-year period. Bacteria were consistently more concentrated in 100g samples of beach sand (2-23 fold in wet sand and 30-460 fold in dry sand) compared to 100ml samples of water. Somatic coliphages were commonly recovered from both sand and water while F(+)-specific coliphages were less commonly detected. Seeding experiments revealed that a single specimen of gull feces significantly influenced enterococci levels in some 3.1m(2) of beach sand. Examination of beach sand on a micro-spatial scale demonstrated that the variation in enterococci density over short distances was considerable. Results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the physical and chemical parameters monitored in this study could only minimally account for the variation observed in indicator densities. A pilot epidemiological study was conducted to examine whether the length of exposure to beach water and sand could be correlated with health risk. Logistic regression analysis results provided preliminary evidence that time spent in the wet sand and time spent in the water were associated with a dose-dependent increase in gastrointestinal illness.