Multi-step ahead short-term predictions of storm surge level using CNN and LSTM network

Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents' safety, property, and lives, particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels. Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans. In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are two of the most important models among AI techniques. However, they have been scarcely utilised for surge level (SL) forecasting, and combinations of the two models are even rarer. This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information. The architectures of the CNN, LSTM, and two sequential techniques of combining the models (LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM) were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies. As a case study, 11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station, Hainan Province, China, were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models. The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), and the combined models outperformed the individual models (CNN and LSTM), mostly by 4％–6％. However, on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges, the accuracy was found to improve by over 10％ at all forecasting steps.     

RFI measurements and mitigation for FAST

Radio Frequency Interference(RFI)mitigation is essential for supporting the science output of Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope(FAST)due to its high sensitivity.In order to protect FAST from RFI,an Electromagnetic Compatibility(EMC)study has been carried out and the operation of a Radio Quiet Zone(RQZ)is ongoing.RFI measurements of the telescope instruments and monitoring of the active radio services outside the site have revealed the radiation properties of the RFI sources.Based on the measurement results and theoretical analysis,various EMC methods have been implemented for the telescope to decrease the RFIs.Meanwhile,the main RFI sources in the FAST RQZ,such as mobile stations,broadcast stations and navigation instruments,have been identified,and the technical measures have been adopted to protect the quiet radio environment around the site.The early science outputs of FAST have demonstrated the efficiency of RFI mitigation methods.     

δ~(18)O, δD and d-excess signatures of ground ice in permafrost in the Beiluhe Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

In this paper, stable isotope(δ~(18)O, δD) investigations were completed in ground ice from a deep borehole in the Beiluhe Basin on northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to unravel the isotopic variations of ground ice and their possible source water. The δ~(18)O and δD of ground ice show distinctive characteristics compared with precipitation and surface water. The near-surface ground ice is highly enriched in heavier isotopes(δ~(18)O and δD), which were gradually depleted from top to bottom along the profile. It is suggestive of different origin and ice formation process. According to isotopic variations, the ice profile was divided into three sections: the near-surface ground ice at 2.5 m is frozen by the active-layer water which suffered evaporation. It is possible that ground ice between 3 and 4.2 m is recharged by the infiltration of snowmelt. From 5 to 6 m, the ground ice show complex origin and formation processes. Isotopic variations from 6 to 11.1 m and 20.55 m indicate different replenishment water. The calculated slope of freezing line(S=6.4) is larger than the experimental value(5.76), and is suggestive of complex origin and formation process of ground ice.     

Numerical sea ice prediction in China

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A remote sensing environmental study of Haiko Bay——Ⅰ Tidal influx and its changes

Through the water areas extracted from remote sensing images and the combination of the methods for establishing the formula for calculating tidal influx with tidal data, the tidal influx of the Haikou Bay, Hainan Province was found to be 5.14×10⁷m³ in 1990, 5.80×10⁷m³ in 1984 and 5.05×10⁷m³ in 1965, respectively.After the analysis of the morphological and tidal range factors which determine tidal influx, this paper presents the trend of the changes in tidal influx caused by the changes in the morphological factors of the Haikou Bay.It is found that a decreasing trend was shown with a depressive rate of 2×10^-3during the period from 1965 to 1984, and an increasing trend with an incremental rate of 1×10^-3 during the period of 1984-1990.The main reason for the appearance of the decreasing trend before 1984 is the natural deposition and silting-up of the bay sediments; after 1984, the dredging and expansion of the Haikou Port and the Haikou New Port which caused an increase in water area at the mean low tide are the leading factor which causes the increase in tidal influx.     

Seismic performance evaluation of water supply pipes installed in a full-scale RC frame structure based on a shaking table test

As an important part of nonstructural components, the seismic response of indoor water supply pipes deserves much attention. This paper presents shaking table test research on water supply pipes installed in a full-scale reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure. Different material pipes and different methods for penetrating the reinforced concrete floors are combined to evaluate the difference in seismic performance. Floor response spectra and pipe acceleration amplification factors based on test...     

The accessible seismological dataset of a high-density 2D seismic array along Anninghe fault

The scientific goal of the Anninghe seismic array is to investigate the detailed geometry of the Anninghe fault and the velocity structure of the fault zone. This 2D seismic array is composed of 161 stations forming sub-rectangular geometry along the Anninghe fault, which covers 50 km and 150 km in the fault normal and strike directions, respectively, with ～ 5 km intervals.The data were collected between June 2020 and June 2021, with some level of temporal gaps. Two types of instruments, i.e. QS...     

Power Law Distribution of Broadband Radiated Energy for Global Seismicity

The claim that there exists a transition of earthquake energy distribution between small and large earthquakes is checked using broadband radiated energy of earthquakes for global seismicity. Scattering of the relation between the magnitude and the broadband radiated energy makes it necessary to use the energy data directly. Rank-ordering statistics is applied to enhance the resolution in retrieving the power law distribution with undersampled data, namely, a few tens of events. Seen in the perspective of broadband radiated energy with higher resolution, there is no evidence for the kink in the frequency-energy distribution for large and small earthquakes. Instead, a single power law can well explain the data. For earthquakes with energy larger than 10~(14) J, we find that the number N of events with energy E depends on E via N ∝ E-B, with the scaling constant B = 0.64 ± 0.04, corresponding to b = 0.95± 0.06.     

Thermal Backstripping from Vitrinite Reflectance Profiles in Comparison with an Extensional Model for Passive Continental Margin Basins on Northern Continental Shelf of South China Sea

INTRODUCTIONVitrinitereflectance(R.)canprovideagreatdealinfor-mationonthermalhistoryofabasin.Itisafunctionofmaximumpaleotemperatureandeffectiveheatingtime,inotherwords,afunctionofdepositionalrateandgeothermalgradientwithirreversiblecharacteristics.Butitalsohasacumulativeeffectthroughoutgeothermalevents.Paleotemperaturesaremainlycontro1ledbythebasalheatflowandheatgenerationfromradioactivesourceswithinthecrust.Themodelforde-terminingpaleoheatflowoflinearchangewithtimefr0mvitri-nitereflecta…     

VOLUMETRIC SEDIMENT CONCENTRATION IN DEBRIS FLOWS

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