参数优化LSSVM的巷道围岩松动圈预测研究

最小二乘支持向量机方法(LSSVM)在处理小样本、高维数、非线性的问题时,具有求解速度快、易于描述非线性关系的优良特性。但是,该方法得到的模型拟合精度和泛化能力依赖于其相关参数,因此,提出基于粒子群优化算法(PSO)的LSSVM参数优选方法。最后,用该模型对巷道围岩松动圈进行了预测研究。结果表明,PSO优化的LSSVM模型具有收敛速度快、计算精度高的特点,说明该模型是合理、有效的。     

Structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformation associated with the Ning’er, Yunnan Province, China M S6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007

The seismogenic fault and the dynamic mechanism of the Ning’er, Yunnan Province MS6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007 are studied on the basis of the observation data of the surface fissures, sand blow and water eruption, land-slide and collapse associated with the earthquake, incorporating with the data of geologic structures, focal mecha-nism solutions and aftershock distribution for the earthquake area. The observation of the surface fissures reveals that the Banhai segment of the NW-trending Ning’er fault is dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NNE-trending fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. The seismo-geologic hazards are concentrated mainly within a 330°-extending zone of 13.5 km in length and 4 km in width. The major axis of the isoseismal is also oriented in 330° direction, and the major axis of the seismic intensity VIII area is 13.5 km long. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the NW-trending nodal plane of the Ning’er MS6.4 earthquake is dominated by right-lateral slip, while the NE-trending nodal plane is dominated by left-lateral slip. The preferred distribution orientation of the aftershocks of MS≥2 is 330°, and the focal depths are within the range of 3~12 km, predominantly within 3~10 km. The distribution of the aftershocks is consistent with the distribution zone of the seismo-geologic hazards. All the above-mentioned data indicate that the Banhai segment of the Ning’er fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. Moreover, the driving force of the Ning’er earthquake is discussed in the light of the active block theory. It is believed that the northward pushing of the Indian plate has caused the eastward slipping of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has been transformed into the southeastern-southernward squeezing of the southwest Yunnan region. As a result, the NW-trending faults in the vicinity of the Ning’er area are dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NE-trending faults are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. This tectonic     

σ-数值切割单元法(σ-SIBM)——解决σ-坐标在海洋陡坡区域数值模拟中压强梯度误差的新方法

σ-坐标是地表水三维水动力及物质输运模型使用最多的垂向坐标,但陡坡区域水平压力梯度误差长期制约着σ-坐标在海洋模拟中的发展,现有解决方法如z-平面法、相对密度法、提高精度法和地形光滑法等都未取得满意的结果.本文提出σ-数值切割单元法,在陡坡区域引入伪床面,降低H/x,消除了长期存在的区域水平压力梯度问题,将问题转化为陡坡位置的非贴体网格问题,进一步采用数值切割单元法解决边界拟合问题.对数值切割单元法的关键步骤,如床面数值识别、网格单元或节点分类、数值源项的半隐式求解以及切割速度的插值计算,提出适合于地表水地形分布特性的具体解决方法.模型既利用了传统σ-网格的简单高效性,又克服了σ-坐标在陡坡或复杂地形中应用的局限性,实现了σ-坐标和数值切割单元法的联合优势.理想海山试验表明,σ-数值切割单元法所产生的最大速度误差相对z-平面法减小近一倍,全域动能误差减小两个量级左右.海沟、海山、大陆架及河口区域存在下的复杂地形数值试验表明,模型对复合陡坡地形同样具有很好的适应性.     

长江三峡水库诱发地震加密观测及地震成因初步分析

从2009年3月起在长江三峡水库湖北段建立了26个地震台站组成的加密台网。2009年3—12月记录到2995次ML-0.8～2.9地震。利用双差定位软件重新确定了2837次地震的精确位置。结果显示:长江三峡水库库区小震震群分布图像呈线性分布或团块状丛集分布,团块状丛集一般在距离库水边5km范围内,地震线性分布可以延伸到距库水边16km远的地方;长江三峡水库湖北段地震主要集中分布在香溪河附近的仙女山断裂北端及九湾溪断裂、泄滩乡以西的长江两岸和巴东北岸神龙溪及附近地区,震源深度10km,平均在4km左右;库区地震活动频次与库水位升降过程正相关,说明属于水库诱发地震。巴东库区神龙溪两岸地震明显呈现出3条线性分布,通过对比该地区碳酸盐岩的分布特征,发现是由于水库蓄水后,库水从神龙溪两岸等地下暗河渗入而诱发地震的;而仙女山断裂过江段、九湾溪断裂和泄滩乡、沙镇溪镇西部地区等的地震可能与仙女山断裂带、牛口断裂或顺层解理等不连续结构面软化,导致岩体失稳而诱发了水库地震,但诱发机制仍需要进一步详细研究才能获得令人信服的结论。另外,在秭归县文化南和杨林、巴东县东壤口镇以东等地存在着煤矿开采引起的矿山诱发地震,在长江三峡库区两岸存在着一些塌陷地震。     

川滇地区活动块体最新构造变动样式及其动力来源

基于“活动块体”的基本概念,综合历史地表破裂型地震的空间分布、主干活动断裂和次级活动断裂的展布特征等,川滇地区可划分出4个一级块体:马尔康块体(Ⅰ)、川滇菱形块体(Ⅱ)、保山-普洱块体(Ⅲ)和密支那-西盟块体(Ⅳ)等;受次级北东向断裂的切割,川滇菱形块体(Ⅱ)可进一步划分为川西北(Ⅱ_1)和滇中(Ⅱ_2)2个次级块体,保山-普洱块体(Ⅲ)包括保山、景谷和勐腊等3个次级块体(Ⅲ_1,Ⅲ_2,Ⅲ_3)。通过断错地貌学的定量研究,厘定了川滇地区各级块体主干边界活动断裂的基本类型和长期滑动速率值;运用矢量分析的方法确定了块体的运动状态,并讨论了变形协调性问题,指出川滇地区各级块体运动是平移、转动和隆升等3种基本运动的复合或叠加,其中马尔康块体、川西北和滇中两个次级块体南东向或南南东向平移速率1～5mm/a,顺时针转动角速率1.4～4°/Ma,隆升速率1mm/a左右;保山-普洱和密支那-西盟两块体也发生过大规模的顺时针转动.它们是印度板块与欧亚板块碰撞、印度板块北移引起板块边缘或内部变形局部化和差异运动的应交响应。由于存在横向活动逆断裂带对东向或南东向平移分量的吸收和转换,青藏高原物质的向东逃逸量或挤出量是有限的,为“叠瓦状道冲转换-有限挤出模型”。     

液动潜孔锤用于干热岩钻进的优化与试验

我国目前能源结构对化石燃料依赖度过高,在全球能源转型的大环境下,作为一种新型清洁能源,干热岩具有储量巨大、资源丰富、分布广泛等优势。针对干热岩勘探开发中高温硬岩钻进的技术难点,对YZX178型液动潜孔锤进行了结构优化,并在某干热岩井中进行了试验应用。试验结果证实了YZX178型液动潜孔锤用于干热岩等坚硬地层进行冲击回转钻进的可行性和高效性,获得了与螺杆钻具接近的机械钻速,且具有节能环保、安全性高、维护方便、节约成本、高温适应性强等优势,但仍需进一步解决其工作寿命与牙轮钻头相匹配的问题。     

米槠次生林内4种植物叶片DOM的数量和质量特征

选取福建省三明市米槠次生林内的4种植物,即米槠(CAC),木荷(SCS),山杜英(ELS),芒萁(DID)为研究对象,对其叶片进行了室内淋溶处理,并分析了淋溶液中的可溶性有机碳(DOC)和可溶性有机氮(DON)含量及pH值,芳香性指标(AI)和荧光效率指数(Feff)等,以揭示其淋溶液中可溶性有机质(DOM)的数量和质量特征。结果表明:4种植物叶片DOM含量总体随淋溶次数的增加逐渐减小,其中首次淋溶后淋溶液中的DOC和DON含量最大,分别占总淋溶量的平均值为67.90%和44.51%;淋溶液中前3次DOC和DON淋溶量总和分别占10次淋溶总量的87.40%~94.77%和68.46%~72.49%;且前3次淋溶次数间呈极显著差异(P0.01),其后差异性不显著。DOM的pH值和光谱指标随着淋溶次数的增加逐渐上升.总体上乔木树种DOM的数量和质量比林下植被要高,这是由于乔木树种的DOM含有更多的养分和芳香类和腐殖化的高分子量化合物,而林下植被的DOM含有较多低分子量化合物和易分解组分。     

Evolution of aerosol vertical distribution during particulate pollution events in Shanghai

A set of micro pulse lidar(MPL)systems operating at 532 nm was used for ground-based observation of aerosols in Shanghai in 2011.Three typical particulate pollution events(e.g.,haze)were examined to determine the evolution of aerosol vertical distribution and the planetary boundary layer(PBL)during these pollution episodes.The aerosol vertical extinction coefficient(VEC)at any given measured altitude was prominently larger during haze periods than that before or after the associated event.Aerosols originating from various source regions exerted forcing to some extent on aerosol loading and vertical layering,leading to different aerosol vertical distribution structures.Aerosol VECs were always maximized near the surface owing to the potential influence of local pollutant emissions.Several peaks in aerosol VECs were found at altitudes above 1 km during the dust-and bioburning-influenced haze events.Aerosol VECs decreased with increasing altitude during the local-polluted haze event,with a single maximum in the surface atmosphere.PM2.5 increased slowly while PBL and visibility decreased gradually in the early stages of haze events;subsequently,PM2.5 accumulated and was exacerbated until serious pollution bursts occurred in the middle and later stages.The results reveal that aerosols from different sources impact aerosol vertical distributions in the atmosphere and that the relationship between PBL and pollutant loadings may play an important role in the formation of pollution.     

辽宁省雷暴日数的时空变化特征

利用1978—2007年辽宁59个站常规地面观测资料,对雷暴日数的时空变化进行分析。结果表明：辽宁省年平均雷暴日数为28.1 d,在空间分布上呈现从东、西部山区向中部丘陵、平原及沿海地区逐渐递减的特征。1978—2007年雷暴日数总体呈逐渐下降趋势,平均每10 a下降1.2 d;并且有明显的季、月变化,夏季最多,秋季次之,冬季几乎没有发生;3—5月迅速增多,6—8月变化趋于平稳,9—12月迅速减少。雷暴在14—20时发生频率最高,20—02时次之,02—08时最少。雷暴初终间日数平均为175.8 d,最长为295 d,最短为102 d。雷暴初日4月最多,5月次之,3月最少。雷暴终日10月最多,9月次之,12月最少。并呈开始早,结束晚的趋势。     

江南造山带(湖南段)金矿成矿规律与资源潜力

扬子地块—华夏地块经历武陵期—雪峰期增生造山-碰撞造山形成江南造山带,构成统一的华南板块,进入板内演化阶段。本文从构造-岩浆作用-沉积建造角度,结合地质年代学、古地磁、岩相古地理分析,加里东运动、印支运动属陆内作用,造就了加里东期、印支期两次主要的金矿成矿事件。湖南雪峰山—幕阜山(俗称“金腰带”)加里东期和印支晚期金矿床分区成带产出,构成一条复合型造山型金矿带。区域性构造导矿、次级构造交汇或叠加控矿明显;矿石普遍发育条带状构造,属韧性剪切递进变形的产物。通过对区域成矿背景、金矿成矿理论,金矿床(体)地质特征,结合同位素地球化学、地质找矿成果及深部验证情况等多方面研究表明该成矿带深部找矿潜力巨大,2000 m以浅金远景资源量有望达到3000 t。