三江平原典型湿地剖面有机碳分布特征与积累现状

研究了三江平原3类典型湿地（泥炭沼泽、腐殖质沼泽和沼泽化草甸）沉积物剖面有机碳的组分与分布特征。结果表明,泥炭沼泽、腐殖质沼泽和沼泽化草甸剖面有机碳分布具有明显的储碳层和淀积层。储碳层厚度分别约为110、60和15 cm,有机碳平均含量分别为295、280和60 g/kg（干物质重）。泥炭沼泽和腐殖质沼泽储碳层内,有机碳主要组分为分解程度低的轻组碳（约占总有机碳的70%以上）,沼泽化草甸的储碳层内轻组碳约为16%。储碳层以下淀积层的有机碳含量都 < 30 g/kg,轻组碳含量很少。3种类型湿地剖面轻组碳与总有机碳之间有着极显著的正相关关系（[WTBX]P[WT]=0.01）。初步建立了湿地有机碳储量的估算方法,得到3种类型湿地剖面1 m内的有机碳储量分别为6.62×104、4.90×104和1.44×104 t/km2,2 m内分别为8.16×104、6.81×104和2.24×104 t/km2。     

国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测

多模式集合和降尺度技术是提升模式预测能力的有效工具。该文对国家气候中心多模式解释应用集成预测 (MODES) 技术与业务应用现状进行了综合介绍。MODES采用欧洲中期天气预报中心、东京气候中心、美国国家环境预报中心和中国气象局国家气候中心4个气候业务季节预测模式输出场,利用EOF迭代、变形的典型相关分析、最优子集回归和高相关回归集成4种统计降尺度方法以及等权平均、经典超级集合等集成方法进行全国月及季节降水和气温预测。目前对MODES进行了夏季回报检验和约1年的实时业务应用。回报检验和业务应用表明,MODES对气温有较好的预测能力 (月预测平均PS评分为76),对降水有一定预测技巧 (月预测平均PS评分为68),具有短期气候预测业务应用价值。     

1998年长江流域降水致洪的评估

通过１９５１年以来长江流域１０个大水年的降水量手对比,对１９９８年长江流域降水致洪进行了评估。结果表明,１９９８年长江大水与１９５４年一样,是一次全流域性的大水年,降水总量接近１９５４年,强于其它大水库。     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SUMMER SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SST AND PREDICTION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH

Most of the study on correlation between the subtropical high and SST focus on the location or intensity of the former versus the latter. It is worthwhile to work on links other than what is usually addressed to identify guidelines in the prediction of the subtropical high. Based on the analysis of subtropical high in west Pacific summer and its correlation with SST in equatorial and north Pacific from previous December to subsequent November, correlation between the area index, west-extending point, location of the subtropical high ridge and SST is discussed. It is conducted by looking into the confidence level of gridpoints and their percentage in the total and examining how they vary with time. From the point of intensity and movement/expansion, feedbacks from the subtropical high to SST are also studied. The SST affects the subtropical high just as the subtropical high affects the SST. A linkage model is thus set up to assist the making of summer rainfall prediction in China's raining seasons.