宁夏气象预报预测业务队伍分析研究

在硬件设施、探测系统、网络环境日益完备，指导产品种类迅速增加、质量不断提高的情况下，根据业务技术体制改革的需求，对宁夏气象预报预测业务人员目前的状况进行了多方面分析。根据社会需求与技术形势，讨论了面临的任务，提出了发展策略与措施。     

Performance of FGOALS-s2 in simulating intraseasonal oscillation over the south Asian monsoon region

The capability of the current version of the air-sea coupled climate model, the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2), in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) over the south Asian monsoon (SAM) region is diagnosed, in terms of dominant period, propagation direction, and vertical structure. Results show that the coupled model can reasonably simulate the main features of observed ISO propagation compared to the chosen AGCM. These features include the eastward movement of intraseasonal 850-hPa zonal wind over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, the vertical structure in active phases, and the realistic phase relationship between ISO and underlying SST. However, the eastward propagation cannot be reproduced in the uncoupled model. This suggests that air-sea interaction is important in generating intraseasonal variability over the SAM region. Nevertheless, some deficiencies remain in the coupled model, which may relate to physical processes depicted by the cumulus parameterization and PBL schemes within its atmospheric component.     

祁连山冰川消融与高空气温变化的关系

利用1986年6-9月冰川实地考察资料及酒泉站的高空探测资料，分析了1986年6-9月祁连山冰川消融随高空气温的变化特征和高空气温与河西地区托来河流量之间的关系。得出两者之间存在较好的相关关系。     

Multivariate analysis of .uorescence and source identi. cation of dissolved organic matter in Jiaozhou Bay, China

Hierarchical clustering analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) methods were used to assess the similarities and dissimilarities of the entire Excitation-emission matrix spectroscopy (EEMs) data sets of samples collected from Jiaozhou Bay, China. The results demonstrate that multivariate analysis facilitates the complex data treatment and spectral sorting processes, and also enhances the probability to reveal otherwise hidden information concerning the chemical characteristics of the dissolved organic matter (DOM). The distribution of di.erent water samples as revealed by multivariate results has been used to track the movement of DOM material in the study area, and the interpretation is supported by the results obtained from the numerical simulation model of substance tracing technique, which show that the substance discharged by Haibo River can be distributed in Jiaozhou Bay.     

自动气象站风传感器雨雾凇冻害研究

根据自动气象站风传感器雨、雾凇冻害资料,分析了与雨、雾凇冻害关系密切的气象要素变化特征及风传感器冻害形成的天气条件,得到了预防雨、雾凇冻害的基本参数,提出了融冻加热装置的最小功率计算方法,并对风传感器防冻加热装置进行了对比试验。     

西双版纳州渔业资源研究

根据澜沧江下游流域西双版纳州1989～2006年渔业资源量数据,分析渔业资源量变动特征,结合1989～2003年同期水文数据,应用人工神经网络技术分析环境因子与渔业捕捞量的关联,并依据2006年数据进行预测检验。结果表明,自1989～2006年,西双版纳州水产品产量逐年增加,养殖面积扩大、养殖技术发展是主要原因。渔业捕捞量总体呈现上升趋势,但在1990～1991、1998～1999及2001～2003年有所下降,与渔政管理和执法加强相关。气温和年降水量对渔业捕捞量的影响最大,其次是最高水温、最低含沙量和最低径流量。人工神经网络下渔业资源模拟值与实际值相关性高,2006年预测值与实际值的相对误差为9.7%,模型预测效果好。     

徐州—淮北地区主要控煤构造与深化找煤研究

制约徐州—淮北煤田找矿工作深入的主导因素是对该区整体上构造控煤规律的认识存在误区。由于该区所处地质背景及自身构造现象的复杂性，这一问题始终未能解决。笔者最近的研究表明，徐宿弧形构造应为中生代末期伸展变形体制下形成的滑脱构造组合，而非逆冲推覆体；弧形构造西侧的淮北煤田主体部分基本不受弧形构造变形影响。中生代以来伸展变形机制下的掀斜断块及断块间差异升降活动对煤系赋存有着控制作用。据此确定的新的找煤靶区有部分被证实发现了赋存条件较好且储量可观的工业煤资源。     

准噶尔盆地油气沿不整合运移的主控因素分析

准噶尔盆地不整合上下发现了众多油气藏,表明不整合是油气运聚的有利通道。通过对不整合上下地层中含油气流体活动特点的分析,提出了不整合的垂向结构是控制油气沿不整合运移的主导要素。不整合从垂向上可划分为上(底砾岩)下(风化壳)两层结构,有时下层风化壳顶部也会发育一层厚度不均的粘土层,使得不整合表现为三层结构。其中,风化壳又包括风化破碎型(火山岩)和风化淋滤型(碎屑岩)两类。基于底砾岩的沉积特征和风化壳的类型,从垂向结构入手,进一步将不整合划分为基岩披覆、砂砾岩和砂泥岩对接等三大类型:基岩披覆型不整合在本区对油气运移最为有利,砂砾岩型不整合次之,而砂泥岩对接型不整合一般不能成为油气运移通道。     

Summer monsoon indices on June rainfall in Hong Kong and its vicinity

Climatologically, June is usually the wettest month in Hong Kong. With significant interannual variation of the summer monsoon, the rainfall variability in June is also large. As Hong Kong is in close proximity to the peripheries of different monsoon regions, the variability of June rainfall largely depends on the relative strength of various monsoon systems. In the present study, a new index comparing the relative condition of the western North Pacific summer monsoon and the South China Sea summer monsoon is developed based on the difference between the respective monsoon indices WNPMI (western North Pacific summer monsoon index) and UMI (unified monsoon index). It is shown that June rainfall in Hong Kong and its vicinity is better correlated with this new index than either WNPMI or UMI alone. Based on the signs of the new index in conjunction with those of WNPMI and UMI, a framework to stratify the monsoon conditions into different configurations together with a simple scheme to summarize the associated rainfall responses is formulated. This study highlights how the rainfall variability on a local or regional scale can be quantified by the broad-scale conditions of different monsoon systems.     

1961-2011年西北地区春季降水变化特征及其空间分异性

利用西北地区121个气象站1961-2011年降水量资料, 分析了西北地区春季降水的基本气候特征;通过EOF、REOF、功率谱等方法, 对西北地区春季降水的时空特性进行了研究, 用Mann-Kendall检验法检验西北地区春季降水序列是否存在突变现象.结果表明: 西北地区春季降水空间分布极不均匀, 其空间分布特征是东南部和西北部为多雨区、中间为少雨区.西北地区春季降水在第一空间尺度上为全区一致, 在第二空间尺度上可分为2个自然气候区, 在第三空间尺度上可分为6个自然气候区.从年代际变化来看, 1980年代是近半个世纪来降水最多的10 a, 1970年代是降水最少的10 a;西北地区春季降水的年际变率十分显著, 降水最多的年份是最少年份的3倍多. 1961-2011年间西北地区春季降水发生了明显的突变: 1973年出现了一次趋于减少的突变, 1985年出现了一次趋于增多的突变. 18~19 a的长周期是其主要周期, 其次是5 a和7 a的短周期. 未来20 a西北地区春季降水量呈缓慢下降的趋势.