CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.     

遥感气候学──气候研究的新领域

随着遥感技术的迅速发展和遥感信息时间序列的增长，提出了一个新的概念──遥感气候学。遥感气候学不同于以往的气候学，它的资料源自雷达或卫星，而不是常规气象台站的观测。通过初步讨论遥感气候学的研究方法和范围问题，给出了遥感气候学的某些研究成果。     

THE ROLES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DYNAMICS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

In this paper,a tropical atmospheric model of relevance to shorts-term climate variations(Wang and Li 1993)is util-ized for study of the development of Madden-Julian oscillation.The model contains an interactive process ofboundary-layer Ekman convergence and precipitation heating.The model is solved by expanding dependent variables interms of parabolic cylindrical functions in the meridional direction and truncating three meridional modes n=0,2,4 forequatorial symmetric solutions.The free wave solutions obtained under long-wave approximation are induced as aKelvin wave and two Rossby waves.After considering the effect of boundary-layer dynamic process,the modifiedKelvin wave becomes unstable in long-wave bands with a typical growth rate on an order of 10~(-6) s~(-1)and an eastwardphase speed of 10 m s~(-1);the most unstable mode is wavenumber one.These theoretical results are consistent with the ob-served Madden-Julian oscillation in equatorial area.For the two modified Rossby waves,one with a smaller meridionalscale(n=4)decays except for extra long-waves;the other with a larger meridional scale(n=2)grows in short-wavebands.This may be relevant to explaining the westward propagation of super cloud clusters in the Madden-Julianoscillation.The theory suggests that the boundary-layer dynamic process is an important mechanism in the develop-ment of the Madden-Julian oscillation.     

鄂西北夏季对流降水回波特征的研究

该文通过对鄂西北1995～1999年6～9月273个对流回波个例进行统计分析，得出生成对流云的主要天气背景为西风低槽过境和副高外围的影响。对流云回波出现频率6、9月较少，7～8月较多。当地地形对对流云活动具有促进生成、约束移动、抬升加强等作用。对流云可分为单体、多单体、超级单体和混合云中对流等种类。6、9月对流云平均的生命时间较短，回波强度、顶高和强回波区顶高较低。相反，7～8月对流云回波特征值较高     

中国数字化地震观测系统

介绍了中国地震局“九五”重点项目中国数字化地震观测系统，特别重点介绍了中国数字化地震台网、国家标准数字化地震台、中国地震局卫星数据通信网、中国数字地震台网中心的建设规模、设计思路、技术参数、设备结构、服务功能，以及中国数字地震台网的运行流程和运行状况。     

地震数据数字化及实时传输

简要地介绍了地震数据国际交换试验系统和台站地震数据实时采集传输系统的组成、各部分的特性与功能、地震数据数字化及实时传输过程。     

基于GIS的云南哀牢山成矿带南段金矿资源预测研究

在分析云南哀牢山成矿带南段地质特征以及总结该区金矿成矿规律和综合信息找矿模型的基础上,运用“找矿信息量”法对该区金矿资源进行综合成矿预测,共圈定4处找矿远景区,其中A类远景区1个,B类远景区3个。     

我国首座卫星信道数字化地震台网落成

文章较为详细地介绍了我国第一座卫星信道数字化地震观测台网各配套仪器的性能,使用环境及整套系统的运行情况和目前在地震观测中所起的作用。作者展望了该系统的发展前景及其对我国地震观测事业的影响。     

高效分解水产原料的菌株分离鉴定和组合发酵初探

为从一种组成未知的商用复合菌中分离并筛选出优势发酵菌株,本实验采用稀释平板培养法,对菌种进行分离纯化,同时参照《真菌鉴定手册》和《常见细菌鉴定手册》,根据其形态学特征、生理生化特性,并分别结合16S r DNA和18S r DNA序列的比对分析对菌种进行鉴定。另外,本研究通过生长曲线测定,单菌种发酵试验以及多菌种混合发酵发酵试验,以游离氨基酸态氮为指标,以期筛选出发酵低值水产品制备菌肥的最佳菌株组合。结果显示,共分离得到4株菌,分别为a热带假丝酵母、b罗伦隐球菌、c枯草芽孢杆菌、d蜡样芽胞杆菌。且菌种组合acd发酵后游离氨基酸态氮的含量较对照组上升最显著,为8.276g/L。故可确定最佳发酵菌株配方为acd(热带假丝酵母+枯草芽孢杆菌+蜡样芽胞杆菌)。     

数字滤波技术在潮汐观测中的应用研究

潮汐是重要的海洋物理要素。瞬时变化的海面高度信息除了包含潮汐信息外,还包括波浪等高频干扰信息,因此需要对干扰信息进行滤除。如何从获取到的海面瞬时高度变化中提取出潮汐信息就成为一个关键问题。海洋学中通常是通过低通滤波来获取低频的潮汐信息。通过分析常用的3种低通数字滤波的方法,即滑动平均法、快速傅里叶变换法和小波变换法,对3种低通滤波方法应用于潮汐数据处理的效果进行了比较分析,得出滑动平均法在潮汐信息提取中具有较高应用价值的结论。