模式动力过程与物理过程耦合及其对台风预报的影响研究

中国南海台风模式是基于GRAPES的热带中尺度模式,采用半隐半拉格朗日时间差分方案,借助Helmholtz方程进行隐式求解,然后计算物理过程,并把各物理量反馈到动力预报场,实现动力过程与物理过程耦合。为了探讨耦合方案对预报精度的影响,在原方案的基础上,设计了新的技术方案,主要包括两项技术改进。其一是考虑温度、水汽的物理反馈对气压场影响,将间接导出的气压反馈值返回动力场;其二是在第一项技术改进的基础上,将物理反馈值作为模式Helmholtz方程的右端项参与隐式求解,物理反馈在动力约束条件下实现与动力过程耦合。针对新方案对台风路径预报的影响开展个例和批量试验研究。个例试验研究表明,新方案明显地提高了台风预报水平,特别是提高了移动速度的预报准确率;2013年批量试验结果分析,如文中给出的台风路径预报、等压要素预报准确率对比分析,说明新技术方案整体提高模式预报精度。     

全球气候数据集生成及气候变化应用研究

科技部在"十三五"期间部署的国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项资助了"全球气候数据集生成及气候变化关键过程和要素监测"研究项目。项目围绕由全球气候观测系统提出的基本气候变量,完善地空天基观测体系,生成中国首套以遥感数据为主体的涵盖大气、海洋和陆表长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的产品,即气候数据集,动态监测全球变化关键过程和要素。     

吉林省临江市小湖闪长玢岩体锆石U-Pb年代学和地球化学特征

对小湖闪长玢岩进行了锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb年代学及岩石地球化学研究。结果表明,岩石年龄为211~214 Ma,加权年平均龄值为(212.8±1)Ma,表明岩浆属于晚三叠世。依据TiO_2-Zr/P_2O_5、P_2O_5-Zr及SiO_2-K_2O图解,判断岩石为高钾钙碱性系列,A/CNK值为1.25~1.57,为过铝质。富集大离子亲石元素(如K、Rb、Ba),相对亏损高场强元素(如Nb、Ta、P、Ti)。高Mg~#值(51.74~52.56,平均为52.17)、Nb/Ta比值(13.52~16.00)、Rb/Sr比值(0.13~0.18)、Th/Nb比值(0.34~0.37)及Ba/La比值(12.39~15.83),显示出此岩体具有壳幔混合特点。综合前人研究成果,认为岩石形成于古亚洲洋闭合之后的造山拉张环境。     

安徽省地质灾害气象预报预警模型研究

通过对基于地质环境信息平台的地质灾害气象预报预警模型构建进行了探讨。拟在先期已具备的地质灾害预警分区、地质灾害易发分区基础上,以地质灾害"易发度"、预报降雨量、有效降雨量为因子,采用logistic回归模型确定各个评价单元的预警等级,经插值计算、图斑合并,实现地质灾害气象风险预警。     

架子台沟低品位铅锌矿原生晕地球化学特征及深部矿产预测

对架子台沟一带1:50 000化探异常检查中,地表发现有铅锌矿化显示,经对激电测深异常深部钻探验证发现有低品位锌矿(化)体。通过系统采集0号勘探线上的2个钻孔中岩石、矿石样品,进行原生晕特征研究分析表明:矿体近矿元素为Ag、Pb、Zn、Cd,尾矿元素为W、Sn、Bi;轴向分带序列由上至下为:Pb-Au-Ag-Mo-Bi-Sn-Cu-Cd-W-Zn。对成矿元素与相关金属元素进行聚类分析、因子分析,并结合激电测深结果,认为在矿体的侧部、深部仍可能有盲矿体。     

火山岩型铀矿山环境地质调查评价方法研究

通过对典型火山岩型铀矿山及周边地区的环境地质调查及样品分析测试,厘定矿山放射性气态、液态、固态源项特征及分布,开展放射性迁移循环途径研究及矿山周边公众潜在附加剂量评价研究,初步建立放射性矿山环境地质调查评价体系。结果表明,该研究可以为查明火山岩型铀矿山开发过程中对环境介质的影响程度和范围提供方法指导。     

南海上层经向翻转环流的低频变化

The low-frequency variability of the shallow meridional overturning circulation(MOC) in the South China Sea(SCS) is investigated using a Simple Ocean Data Assimilation(SODA) product for the period of 1900–2010. A dynamical decomposition method is used in which the MOC is decomposed into the Ekman, external mode, and vertical shear components. Results show that all the three dynamical components contribute to the formation of the seasonal and annual mean shallow MOC in the SCS. The shallow MOC in the SCS consists of two cells: a clockwise cell in the south and an anticlockwise cell in the north; the former is controlled by the Ekman flow and the latter is dominated by the external barotropic flow, with the contribution of the vertical shear being to reduce the magnitude of both cells. In addition, the strength of the MOC in the south is found to have a falling trend over the past century, due mainly to a weakening of the Luzon Strait transport(LST) that reduces the transport of the external component. Further analysis suggests that the weakening of the LST is closely related to a weakening of the westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific, which leads to a southward shift of the North Equatorial Current(NEC) bifurcation and thus a stronger transport of the Kuroshio east of Luzon.     

星载SAR对雨团催生海面风场的观测研究

雨团或对流雨是热带与亚热带地区的主要降雨形式,较易被高分辨率星载合成孔径雷达（SAR）探测到。SAR图像上的雨团足印是由大气中雨滴的散射与吸收、下沉气流等共同导致形成的。本文以RADARSAT-2卫星100 m分辨率的SAR图像上雨团引起的海面风场及其结构反演与解译作为实例进行分析。使用CMOD4地球物理模式函数,分别以NCEP再分析数据、欧洲MetOp-A卫星先进散射计（ASCAT）和中国HY-2卫星微波散射计的风向为外部风向,进行了SAR图像的海面风场反演。反演的海面风速相对于NCEP、ASCAT和HY-2的均方根误差（RMSE）分别为1.48 m/s,1.64 m/s和2.14 m/s。SAR图像上一侧明亮另一侧昏暗的圆形信号图斑被解译为雨团携带的下沉气流对海面风场（海面粗糙度）的改变所致。平行于海面背景风场其通过雨团圆形足印中心的剖面上的风速变化可拟合为正弦或余弦曲线,其拟合线性相关系数均不低于0.80。背景风场的风速大小、雨团引起的风速大小以及雨团足印的直径可利用拟合曲线获得,雨团足印的直径大小一般为数千米或数十千米,本文的8例个例解译与分析均验证了该结论。     

Radar-based collision avoidance for unmanned surface vehicles

Unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) have become a focus of research because of their extensive applications. To ensure safety and reliability and to perform complex tasks autonomously, USVs are required to possess accurate perception of the environment and effective collision avoidance capabilities. To achieve these, investigation into realtime marine radar target detection and autonomous collision avoidance technologies is required, aiming at solving the problems of noise jamming, uneven brightness, target loss, and blind areas in marine radar images. These technologies should also satisfy the requirements of real-time and reliability related to high navigation speeds of USVs. Therefore, this study developed an embedded collision avoidance system based on the marine radar, investigated a highly real-time target detection method which contains adaptive smoothing algorithm and robust segmentation algorithm, developed a stable and reliable dynamic local environment model to ensure the safety of USV navigation, and constructed a collision avoidance algorithm based on velocity obstacle (V-obstacle) which adjusts the USV’s heading and speed in real-time. Sea trials results in multi-obstacle avoidance firstly demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed avoidance system, and then verify its great adaptability and relative stability when a USV sailing in a real and complex marine environment. The obtained results will improve the intelligent level of USV and guarantee the safety of USV independent sailing.     

阿尔金北缘岩石变形机制——来自X光组构分析的证据

对阿尔金北缘地区变形蚀变花岗岩、花岗质糜棱岩、变形酸性火山岩和变形英安质凝灰岩中石英和绢云母2种矿物进行X光岩石组构分析,认为本区岩石变形比较明显,宏观面理近于东西向展布,绢云母变形较强,平行于面理定向排列;而石英以底面或近底面滑移为主,部分样品兼有柱面Ⅰ型滑移和柱面Ⅱ型滑移,反映本区岩石变形机制为中浅层次的脆-韧性变形(10~15km、250~350℃、0.25~0.40GPa)。通过岩石组构特征与宏观面理产状,推断本区韧性变形以右行运动为主,与板块碰撞在阿尔金北缘大平沟地区产生的韧性变形带特征一致。