板内地震复发间隔对断层长度的标度关系研究及应用探索

虽然关于一些重要参数值仍然存在显著的不确定性，地学家们一致认为断层分布遵从幂律标度关系。本文我们把这些标度关系和地震分布的幂律标度关系结合起来获得了区域板内地震复发间隔对断层长度的标度关系式，再对其进行局部校准进而得到某一具体小地方的地震危险估计方法。小断层（未跨越孕震层与断４层）的标度资料表明地震复发间隔和断层长度的负幂成比例变化。由于最近认识到了大震标度中参数的不确定性，对于大断层（跨越孕震层的断层），其地震复发间隔是和断层长度的负幂还是和正幂成比例变化的问题是不确定的，这个问题对地震危险估计是至关重要的。     

川西地区壳幔结构与汶川MS8.0级地震的孕震背景

收集了四川数字地震台网记录的57个远震事件,并从宽频带数字化三分量地震记录中计算出了马尔康（MEK）、都江堰（YZP）、中江（JJS）、江油（ZJG）、广元（YTS）、康定（GDS）、汉源（XJP）、雅安（MDS）、峨眉山（EMS）、沐川（WMP）、仁寿（YGD）、荣县（HMS）等12个台站下方的远震P波径向接收函数.另外,引入地震勘探中的动校正技术,将各台的接收函数校正到67°的参考震中距处,然后对接收函数进行叠加以增强信号,并把叠加接收函数作为台站下方的平均接收函数.最后,利用台站下的平均接收函数反演得到S波速度结构.反演结果表明：以锦屏山—龙门山断裂为界,其西侧地壳厚达70 km,而东侧仅为50 km左右,Moho面在断裂下方形成了一个陡坎;川西地区的地壳速度结构与川中地区差异较大,主要表现在川西地区的中地壳存在厚度为8~22 km的低速层.在都江堰、雅安一带,低速层的厚度最大,其厚度在20~22 km之间,其上地壳为一个坚硬固体,在区域构造应力场作用下,形成了孕育大地震的构造环境.     

不同参考面块体应变计算公式的对比分析

通过对不同块体应变计算公式的分析,利用模拟数据作为输入、采用经典平差方法求解应变参数并评定精度,进而对比不同参考面块体应变计算公式的差异。同时对小样本和大样本模拟数据应变计算结果进行统计分析。结果表明,平面公式与球面公式计算结果的差异与计算区域的大小有关,由投影误差决定,与点位的纬度分布没有必然的联系。因此,在小区域进行应变计算不会因为公式不同而导致结果的系统性差异。     

河源新丰江地区地震烈度、地震影响场与新丰江水库大坝设防烈度

简述了1950年以来新丰江水库地区和水库大坝地震烈度的变化,并对新旧大坝设防烈度进行了对比,认为按现今的国家标准,新丰江水库大坝的设防烈度为Ⅶ度强。对库区6次4级以上地震的烈度宏观调查数据进行了分析,拟合了河源地区的地震烈度衰减关系,并与华南地区的地震烈度关系进行了比较．最后计算了新丰江水库地区的在5-6级地震情况下的宏观烈度影响场。     

首都圈地区现今地壳垂直形变特征

利用首都圈地区1998、2001、2005、2007年151期精密水准复测资料,分析该区近十年来地壳垂直形变状态与动态特征。结果表明,形变场以继承性运动为主,即山区上升、盆地及平原下降。值得注意的是首都圈西部地区等值线分布密集有序,有些象限图形特征,东西升,南北降,其最大差值为10mm／a,可能预示该区应力场处于逐步积累及有所加强的势态,虽然异常形变数值及所涉面积均较小,但仍需跟踪关注。     

Movement and strain conditions of active blocks in the Chinese mainland

The definition of active block is given from the angles of crustal deformation and strain. The movement and strain parameters of active blocks are estimated according to the unified velocity field composed of the velocities at 1598 GPS stations obtained from GPS measurements carried out in the past years in the Chinese mainland and the surrounding areas. The movement and strain conditions of the blocks are analyzed. The active blocks in the Chinese mainland have a consistent E-trending movement component, but its N and S components are not consistent. The blocks in the western part have a consistent N-trending movement and the blocks in the eastern part have a consistent S-trending movement. In the area to the east of 90°E, that is the area from Himalayas block towards NE, the movement direction of the blocks rotates clockwisely and the movement rates of the blocks are different. Generally, the movement rate is large in the west and south and small in the east and north with a difference of 3 to 4 times between the rates in the west and east. The distributions of principal compressive strain directions of the blocks are also different. The principal strain of the blocks located to the west of 90oE is basically in the SN direction, the principal compressive strain of the blocks in the northeastern part of Qingzang plateau is roughly in the NE direction and the direction of principal compressive strain of the blocks in the southeastern part of Qingzang plateau rounds clockwisely the east end of Himalayas structure. In addition, the principal strain and shear strain rates of the blocks are also different. The Himalayas and Tianshan blocks have the largest principal compressive strain and the maximum shear strain rate. Then, Lhasa, Qiangtang, Southwest Yunnan (SW Yunnan), Qilian and Sichuan-Yunan (Chuan-Dian) blocks followed. The strain rate of the blocks in the eastern part is smaller. The estimation based on the stain condition indicates that Himalayas block is still the area with the most intensive tectonic activity and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 15.2±1.5 mm/a. Tianshan block ranks the second and it shortens in the NS direction at the rate of 10.1±0.9 mm/a. At present, the two blocks are still uprising. It can be seen from superficial strain that the Chinese mainland is predominated by superficial expansion. Almost the total area in the eastern part of the Chinese mainland is expanded, while in the western part, the superficial compression and expansion are alternatively distributed from the south to the north. In the Chinese mainland, most EW-trending or proximate EW-trending faults have the left-lateral or left-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides, and most NS-trending faults have the right-lateral or right-lateral strike-slip relative movements along both sides. According to the data from GPS measurements the left-lateral strike-slip rate is 4.8±1.3 mm/a in the central part of Altun fault and 9.8±2.2 mm/a on Xianshuihe fault. The movement of the fault along the block boundary has provided the condition for block movement, so the movements of the block and its boundary are consistent, but the movement levels of the blocks are different. The statistic results indicate that the relative movement between most blocks is quite significant, which proves that active blocks exist. Himalayas, Tianshan, Qiangtang and SW Yunnan blocks have the most intensive movement; China-Mongolia, China-Korea (China-Korea), Alxa and South China blocks are rather stable. The mutual action of India, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates versus Eurasia plate is the principal driving force to the block movement in the Chinese mainland. Under the NNE-trending intensive press from India plate, the crustal matter of Qingzang plateau moves to the NNE and NE directions, then is hindered by the blocks located in the northern, northeastern and eastern parts. The crustal matter moves towards the Indian Ocean by the southeastern part of the plateau.     

利用重复地震观测重庆武隆地区地壳介质变化

选取重庆数字地震台网记录的武隆地区107次M_L≥1.5地震波形和观测报告资料,采用波形互相关技术进行相关计算,识别出12组同时被3个地震台站记录且各台波形互相关系数不小于0.8的重复地震。利用射线追踪方法,对武隆地区重复地震位置做归一化处理,得到所选台站记录地震P波走时差变化,结果显示:在2017年武隆M_S5.0地震前4年,武隆、仙女山、涪陵地震台记录到P波走时差均存在长期的负异常变化,持续时间长达339天,共出现18次负值,表明该时段地壳介质速度有明显升高现象。      

基于Elman神经网络算法的地震经济损失快速评估研究

地震经济损失快速评估是应急救灾的重要决策依据。本文选取了震级、极震区烈度、极震区烈度和抗震设防烈度之差ΔI、人口密度、人均GDP等5个指标作为输入层节点,将地震灾害的直接经济损失作为输出层节点,通过对1996—2013年的地震灾害损失资料进行训练和仿真分析,构建了Elman神经网络地震经济损失快速估计模型。运用该模型,对近年来的7个破坏性地震的直接经济损失进行评估分析,评估结果和实际直接经济损失有较好的一致性,该方法为地震经济损失快速评估提供了一种新思路。     

东祁连造山带陆相盆地早白垩世古地磁新结果及其构造意义

对东祁连造山带早白垩世红层进行详细的古地磁学及岩石磁学研究, 系统热退磁研究结果表明: 紫红色砂岩的剩磁方向可分离出2～3个磁性分量, 其低温分量在地理坐标下与现今地磁场方向一致; 高温特征方向主要由赤铁矿携带, 19个采点的平均极位置为: λ＝62.2°N, Φ =193.4°E, A95=3.2°, 其在99%置信水平下通过了褶皱检验, 且在95%的置信水平通过了倒转检验; 该极位置在95%置信水平下与Halim等人在该地区的研究结果是一致的; 对比同时代华北、华南、欧亚的古地磁结果表明: 兰州地区相对于华北、华南及欧亚白垩纪后不存在明显的南北向地壳缩短, 但却发生了20°左右的顺时针旋转, 造成这一旋转的原因很可能是印度/欧亚的碰撞挤压造成青藏高原北缘阿尔金断裂发生了大规模的左旋走滑所致.