Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model

A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models (ICMs) using only sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984–2003 and the period 1997–2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.     

洱海主要污染物允许排放总量的控制分配

基于环境流体动力学模型EFDC(Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code),建立了洱海湖泊及湖湾的三维水动力水质模型.利用洱海2001 2011年连续11年的水动力水质监测数据对模型进行了率定和验证,模拟结果与实测资料吻合度较好,表明水动力水质模型计算结果较为合理.在考虑水质环境背景浓度的前提下,通过水质模型量化各个入湖排污口对水质控制点的贡献率,并对各水质控制点和入湖排污口的浓度进行约束限制,最终利用单纯形法求解得到各入湖排污口的允许排污量.计算结果表明,北区三条河流弥苴河、永安江、罗时江本身流量相对较大,所以允许排放总量也较大,总氮、总磷和COD_Mn的允许排放总量分别占到整个洱海允许排放量的47%、53%和49%.洱海主要污染物允许排放总量的控制分配研究对于洱海流域的环境综合整治具有十分重要的意义.     

我院门诊妇科中成药超说明书用药现状分析与对策研究

目的：调查我院门诊妇科中成药超说明书用药现状,探讨超说明书用药管理对策,提高合理用药。方法：收集我院2017—2018年门诊妇科中成药处方,点评超说明书规定的用药情况,包括是否超适应证、剂量、频率、配伍禁忌等处方,通过相关统计分析,并实施相应的预防措施。结果：共收集16084张门诊妇科处方,有2758张处方存在用药不合理现象,其中759张存在超说明书用药,超说明书用药占总处方的比例为4.72%,主要表现在给药途径、用法用量、超适应证及配伍禁忌4个方面。结论：我院门诊妇科中成药超说明书用药现象较多,在临床实际工作中,临床药师应与处方医师充分协作,权衡超说明书用药的利弊,提高临床合理用药水平以及处方的合理性。     

大洋风生环流观测优化的伴随分析

提出了一种依据海洋伴随资料同化达到改进海洋观测方案的客观分析方法.针对一个"真实的海洋"进行不同空间断面(或对不同层次)的假设采样,分别将这些"不完备的观测"应用于Byran-Cox海洋环流模式的伴随系统,可以计算"不完备观测"同化以后的模式环流与"完备观测"资料同化(控制试验)得到的环流之间的距离--反演距离.由于海洋伴随资料同化所具有的局地修正效应和邻域修正效应,不同观测方案所对应的反演距离有着明显的差异.采用上述方法在一定观测代价下可以对大洋风生环流进行观测方案的优化分析.     

长度基线溯源问题探讨

介绍了长度基线的3种校准方式,分析了因瓦尺和光电测距仪校准基线的不确定度,在1 000 m距离上,二者都能达到1 mm的扩展不确定度(k=2)。用3台精密测距仪在芬兰、北京、郑州、成都等地基线场的6期实验数据,说明维塞拉基线、因瓦尺基线、光电测距基线三者之间存在3 mm/km的系统性差异,提出了解决差异的建议。     

The impact of different vertical diffusion schemes in a three-dimensional oil spill model in the Bohai Sea

Vertical transport is critical to the movement of oil spills in seawater. Breaking waves play an important role by developing a well-defined mixing layer in the upper part of the water column. A three-dimensional （3-D） Lagrangian random walk oil spill model was used here to study the influence of sea surface waves on the vertical turbulence movement of oil particles. Three vertical diffusion schemes were utilized in the model to compare their impact on oil dispersion and transportation. The first scheme calculated the vertical eddy viscosity semi-empirically. In the second scheme, the vertical diffusion coefficient was obtained directly from an Eulerian hydrodynamic model （Princeton Ocean Model, POM2k） while considering wave- caused turbulence. The third scheme was formulated by solving the Langevin equation. The trajectories, percentages of oil particles intruding into water, and the vertical distribution structures of oil particles were analyzed for a series of numerical experiments with different wind magnitudes. The results showed that the different vertical diffusion schemes could generate different horizontal trajectories and spatial distributions of oil spills on the sea surface. The vertical diffusion schemes caused different water-intruding and resurfacing oil particle behaviors, leading to different horizontal transport of oil particles at the surface and subsurface of the ocean. The vertical diffusion schemes were also applied to a realistic oil spill simulation, and these results were compared to satellite observations. All three schemes yielded acceptable results, and those of the third scheme most closely simulated the observed data.     

SuperMap IS-互联网GIS开平台

~~SuperMap IS-互联网GIS开平台@朱江$北京超图地理信息技术有限公司 @宋关福$北京超图地理信息技术有限公司 @工康弘$北京超图地理信息技术有限公司 @钟耳顺$北京超图地理信息技术有限公司     

大别山皇城山银矿区及外围陈棚组火山岩U-Pb年代学、地球化学和成矿构造背景

皇城山银矿床是西大别山地区代表性的浅成低温热液矿床,受陈棚组火山机构的枝叉状裂隙构造控制.目前人们对该矿床成因、成矿时间和构造环境的理解尚不深刻,因此对相关火山岩进行了激光等离子质谱（LA-ICP-MS）锆石U-Pb测年、元素地球化学和Sr-Nd-Hf同位素研究,探讨了其岩石成因和构造属性.结果表明,皇城山矿区陈棚组熔结凝灰岩及外围流纹岩锆石U-Pb年龄分别为133.4±1.5 Ma（MSWD=1.3）和133.1±0.8 Ma（MSWD=0.59）,形成于早白垩世.陈棚组火山岩在较短时间内喷发形成,其喷发时限基本代表了皇城山银矿床形成时间.陈棚组流纹岩具高硅（SiO₂=73.83%~77.38%）、高钾（K₂O=4.65%~9.31%）特征,属于过铝质（A/CNK=1.09~1.31）和高钾钙碱性岩石系列.岩石具轻稀土富集,重稀土平坦,大离子亲石元素相对富集,Ba、Nb、Ta、P、Ti明显负异常和负Eu异常（δEu=0.33~0.88）特点.岩石锶同位素初始比值I_Sr为0.708 220~0.708 741,ε_Nd（t）值为-17.2~-18.5,Nd两阶段模式年龄T_DM2=2.32~2.43 Ga.锆石ε_Hf（t）值范围为-22.3~-26.1,Hf两阶段模式年龄T_DM2=2.29~2.49 Ga.主、微量元素和Sr-Nd-Hf同位素特征共同揭示陈棚组流纹岩为扬子陆壳北缘古老地壳物质重熔演化的产物.结合区域地质特征,陈棚组火山岩及其相关皇城山银矿床形成于大别山早白垩世加厚下地壳拆沉作用初期、挤压向伸展转化环境.      

油页岩原位注浆封闭浆液配方研究

油页岩在原位开采过程中,开采井与周围环境相通,原位产生的油气容易渗入周围地层形成环境污染,目前尚没有一种经济性较好的原位封闭技术来解决该难题。本文基于注浆封闭原理,通过试验探究,提出采用无污染且造价低的超细水泥注浆配方来对开采区进行封闭。经过系列配方的优化选择,最终确定优化的配方是水灰比为0.8,微硅粉掺量为6%,膨润土掺量为2%,聚羧酸减水剂掺量为0.4%,此时浆液的性能基本达到工程要求。