一种基于TMI观测结果的海表温度反演算法

基于星载微波仪器观测结果反演海表温度,能很好地克服云对反演结果的干扰,实现对海表温度全天候的监测.文中利用热带测雨卫星所搭载的微波成像仪的观测结果,建立了一种新的适用于非降水条件下的海表温度反演算法.作为一种半经验统计算法,它以辐射传输方程为基础,通过理论模拟计算,建立海表温度与微波成像仪多通道亮温之间的关系,较好地反...     

散射计海面风场块状模糊的识别与去除

由于归一化后向散射截面积与相对风向的双调和关系及测量误差的存在, 散射计风场反演算法一般只能得到几个模糊解, 需要采用圆中数滤波法进行模糊去除以确定唯一的风矢量. 但是对于局部风场中伪解集中分布的情况, 圆中数滤波法往往失效而在滤波后风场中产生块状模糊, 从而降低反演精度. 针对此问题, 提出一种块状模糊的识别与去除方法, 用于反演滤波后风场的进一步优化处理, 实验证明该方法对大部分块状模糊能够有效识别与去除.     

冲击荷载下土体位移特征研究

建立了冲击荷载作用下土体动力压密有限元方程及其数值计算方法。用Ansys-Ls-dyna软件包对山西化肥厂地基冲击荷载作用后土体的动力响应进行了分析,得出了冲击荷载作用下分层土体中的位移分布特征及其它们的变化过程,计算结果与实测结果吻合较好。研究结果表明：冲击荷载作用下土体位移的影响范围为一椭球体。侧向加固半径距荷载作用中心接近2D(D为夯锤直径),荷载作用中心下加固深度能达到2D甚至更大。     

有云环境下MODIS亮温资料的变分同化Ⅱ——对暴雨预报的影响

卫星资料提供了大量关于云和雨的观测信息,在暴雨预报中可发挥巨大的作用,然而在数值模式资料同化中的应用水平仍然不高,特别是红外辐射资料的应用。由于有云环境下辐射传输过程的模拟难度很大,因此通常只同化晴空环境下的红外辐射资料。基于GRAPES-3DVAR(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System,全球/区域同化预报系统),根据RTTOV辐射传输模式(fast radiative transfer model for TOVS,快速辐射传输模式)的特点,增加云水含量、云冰水含量和云量作为同化系统控制变量,在改进辐射传输模式对红外资料模拟的同时,利用红外资料调整初始云参数和大气参数。针对2007年5月26日南海季风爆发后广东地区的一次暴雨过程,选取MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer,中分辨成像光谱仪)传感器水汽(第27)和云顶观测(第36)通道进行了同化试验,利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,天气研究和预报模式)进行了数值模拟,结果表明同化MODIS资料,可以改进初始场水汽和温度分布,间接调整高空风场,调整趋势符合卫星观测,对短时降水预报有正面影响。     

利用相关性对自动气象站资料进行时空一致性检测

通过对广东省456个自动气象站2003-2005年的逐时资料进行处理,得到滤去天和年周期的温度、变温和1 h降水资料序列,并利用该序列作了滞后1 h自相关和空间相关分析。结果表明,滞后自相关系数含有时间特性,而要素站点空间分布则具有空间特性。选取2006年自动气象站个例,利用空间连续性和时间连续性原理,对气象要素时间滞后自相关系数在空间上的分布特性,进行时间、空间一致性检测,发现使用该方法可以容易地检查出资料缺测率偏高的站点。此外还总结出温度与降水观测资料的质量情况及规律。     

Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Xinfeng C-Band Polarimetric Radar Observations

The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution (DSDs) retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope (μ-Λ) relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity Z_(HH)and differential reflectivity Z_(DR)were obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the Z_(DR)-Λand log_(10)(Z_(HH)/N_0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations Z_(DR)and Z_(HH),the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N_0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity (R),mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) and intercept parameter (N_w) with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.     

华南飑线系统对流与层云区闪电起始和通道位置处的云微物理特征

利用广州S波段双偏振雷达观测数据和低频电场探测阵列三维闪电定位数据,分析了2017年5月4日和5月8日华南地区两次飑线过程中闪电起始和通道位置处的雷达偏振参量和降水粒子特征.两次飑线中约80％的闪电起始和通道(统称闪电放电)定位于对流区.对流区闪电放电位置处的雷达反射率(ZH)要比层云区平均大4～5 dBZ,其它偏振参...     

泌阳凹陷北部斜坡带构造特征及油气圈闭有效性

泌阳凹陷北部斜坡带断裂极为发育，主要发育NE向和NWW向两组正断层。NE向断层断距大，延伸距离远；NWW向断层断距相对较小，延伸较短。斜坡带由于构造破碎，断层发育，圈闭类型多为断块、断鼻及断层 岩性复合型圈闭。因此，对北部斜坡带断层的展布和交切规律的研究，是识别该区圈闭的关键。     

南海台风模式对“海燕”移动路径的预报

超强台风"海燕"是2013年最著名的台风。分析中国南海台风模式对"海燕"整个过程的预报,发现模式基本预报出"海燕"的快速穿过菲律宾和登陆越南后北翘东折的移动路径,但也存在一些不足,例如强度预报偏弱。通过高分辨率数值模拟分析了"海燕"的变化机理,发现高层暖心、高中低层一致东风气流是其超强发展和快速西移的主要特征。进一步的模式预报试验中,探讨了模拟技术对提高台风预报水平的影响作用。分析结果表明,准确的模式物理参数化(如边界层、积云对流和地形参数化)和模式初始大气构造等,以及提高模式分辨率有助于提高台风预报水平。     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.