THE INTERBASIN TRANSPORT OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EVALUATED FROM NCEP/NCAR REANALYSIS DATA

With the objective of providing a relatively accurate and complete diagram,the global scaleinterbasin transport of atmospheric moisture on the basis of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for theperiod 1980 to 1994 is evaluated.The results show that the net zonal vapor flux for the Pacific,theAtlantic and the Indian Oceans is 0.25 Sv,—0.68 Sv and —0.29 Sv respectively.The markingdifferences in the zonal moisture budget among individual basins are speculated as the reason thatdominates the differences in the salinity between the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans.Though currentevaluation on the net zonal moisture flux for the Atlantic basin is generally in qualitative agreementwith the previous estimate,quantitative discrepancy is found to exist.According to current statistics,the tropical easterlies carry water vapor of 0.43 Sv from the Atlantic basin across Central Americainto the Pacific,and the northern westerlies allow water vapor of 0.25 Sv to escape from the Pacific.Quantitative analyses also reveal that the seasonal variation of net zonal vapor flux for the Pacific andthe Indian Oceans is stronger than that for the Atlantic,which may be favorable for the maintenanceof high salinity feature of the Atlantic Ocean.     

北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟II：热带太平洋强迫

利用一个全球海气耦合模式(BCM),结合观测资料,讨论了热带太平洋强迫对北大西洋年际气候变率的影响。研究表明,BCM能够相对合理地模拟赤道太平洋的年际变率模态及相应的海温距平型和大气遥相关型,尽管其准3年的振荡周期过于规则。来自数值模式和观测上的证据都表明,北大西洋冬季海温的主导性变率模态,即自北而南出现的“- -”的海温距平型,受到来自热带太平洋强迫的显著影响,其正位相与赤道中东太平洋冷事件相对应。换言之,赤道太平洋暖事件的发生,在太平洋-北美沿岸激发出PNA遥相关型,进而通过在北大西洋产生类似NAO负位相的气压距平型,削弱本来与NAO正位相直接联系的三核型海温距平。北大西洋三核型海温距平对热带太平洋强迫的响应,要滞后2—3个月的时间。     

Impacts of two types of El Niño on atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere

Based on NCEP/NCAR （National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmo- spheric Research） reanalysis data from 1979 to 2010, the impacts of two types of E1 Nino on atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） are analyzed. It is shown thaL when a warming event occurs in the equatorial eastern Pacific （EP E1 Nino）, there is a negative sea level pressure （SLP） anomaly in the east- ern Pacific and a positive one in the western Pacific. Besides, there exists a negative anomaly between 40°S and 60°S and a positive anomaly to the south of 60°S. When a warming event in the central Pacific （CP E1 Nino） occurs, there appears a negative SLP anomaly in the central Pacific and a positive SLP anomaly in the eastern and western Pacific, but the SLP anomalies are not so evident in the SH extratropics. In particular, the Pacific-South America （PSA） pattern induced by the CP E1 Nino is located more northwestward, with a weaker anomaly compared with the EP E1 Nino. This difference is directly related with the different position of heating centers associated with the two types of E1 Nino events. Because the SST anomaly associated with CP E1 Nino is located more westward than that associated with EP El Nino, the related heating center tends to move westward and the response of SH atmospheric circulation to the tropical heating changes accordingly, thus exciting a different position of the PSA pattern. It is also noted that the local meridional cell plays a role in the SH high latitudes during EP E1 Nino. The anomalous ascending motion due to the enhancement of convection over the eastern Pacific leads to an enhancement of the local Hadley cell and the meridional cell in the middle and high latitudes, which in turn induces an anomalous descending motion and the related positive anomaly of geopotential height over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea.     

地球系统模式发展展望

在调研国际国内气候系统模式的基础上,给出了地球系统模式的定义和它的3个发展阶段：物理气候系统模式、地球气候系统模式和地球系统模式,阐述了未来的地球系统模式发展的战略意义,介绍了国际国内围绕地球系统模式的发展所提出的科学研究计划,并基于政府间气候变化委员会第四次评估报告的参评模式,回顾了国内外地球系统模式发展现状与动态,展望了未来的可能发展方向,希望能对国内的地球气候系统模式发展有所帮助。     

气候系统模式FGOALS-s1.1对热带降水年循环模态的模拟

文中评估了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室（LASG/IAP）新一代耦合气候模式Fgoals-s1.1对热带降水年循环模态的模拟能力。通过与观测表层海温（SST）强迫的大气模式SAMIL试验结果比较,分析了海气耦合过程对年循环模态模拟效果的影响。结果表明Fgoals-s1.1能合理再现热带地区降水年循环模态的基本特征。Fgoals-s1.1模拟出了年平均降水场中的主要降水中心,但模拟的赤道和南太平洋降水偏多,而北太平洋降水则偏少。Fgoals-s1.1的季风模态降水呈现与观测一致的关于赤道反对称的特征,其模拟偏差大部分来自大气分量,尤其是在赤道外。Fgoals-s1.1的主要缺陷在于它对春秋非对称模态模拟能力低于单独大气模式,这主要是由于耦合模式模拟的SST距平的年循环位相与观测相反。SST纬向梯度的位相偏差使得太平洋沃克环流和印度洋的反沃克环流在春季强于秋季,最终导致模拟的春秋非对称模态的偏差。Fgoals-s1.1模拟的季风区范围接近观测,存在的问题在于模拟的西北太平洋季风区、东亚季风区都偏小。本文结果表明,大气模式偏差仅是Fgoals-s1.1在降水年循环模态模拟上的偏差的部分来源,改进模式模拟的SST,特别是赤道地区SST季节循环,是今后Fgoals-s1.1发展过程中急需解决的问题。     

影响气候系统模式温室气体敏感度的反馈过程——基于FGOALS模式的研究

气候系统模式对特定温室气体的敏感度对未来气候变化的预估结果至关重要.为理解影响气候模式对温室气体敏感度的关键反馈过程,本文利用瞬间4倍CO2强迫试验,研究了LASG/IAP两个版本的气候系统模式FGOALS-s2和FGOALS-g2的气候响应.将全球平均地表气温(SAT)的变化作为衡量气候模式响应的主要标准.根据SAT的响应随时间的变化趋势,将150年的试验结果分为两个时段:前20年为快响应阶段,后130年为慢响应阶段.采用国际通用的Gregory方法分别估计4倍CO2引起的辐射强迫和平衡态气候敏感度.结果表明,FGOALS-s2中水汽的响应偏强使估算的CO2辐射强迫比FGOALS-g2强7.1%.平衡态气候敏感度定义为2倍CO2强迫下达到新的平衡态时全球平均SAT的变化,其在FGOALS-s2和FGOALS-g2中分别约为4.5和3.7 K,前者较之后者偏强21.6%.FGOALS-s2敏感度大是由于快响应阶段的水汽和反照率正反馈过程偏强,表现为水汽含量的增加和海冰的减少均太快.在慢响应阶段,尽管FGOALS-s2的水汽及反照率正反馈仍然较强,但FGOALS-s2的总负反馈强于FGOALS-g2,这是因为FGOALS-s2中云短波负反馈更强,补偿了其较弱的晴空负反馈.FGOALS-s2中云短波负反馈偏强主要是由于总云量以及云水路径正响应过强.云短波反馈的不确定性是总反馈不确定性的主要来源.     

决定北半球冬季哈得莱环流年际变率的三维大气环流图像:观测分析和数值模拟

本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了1979~2008年北半球冬季哈得莱(Hadley)环流年际变化的特征,在此基础上,讨论了在观测海温驱动下大气环流模式的模拟结果.观测分析表明,近30年北半球冬季哈得莱环流年际变率的主导模态呈现出空间上的非均匀变化,哈得莱环流圈位于热带部分与其位于副热带部分的强度变化符号相反,这在表征其年际变化特征的另一指标——经向风垂直切变中亦有显著体现.大气环流模式AMIP积分试验结果表明,北半球冬季哈得莱环流强度的上述年际变化源于海温强迫.分析发现,热带中东太平洋和南印度洋暖海温距平强迫导致了哈得莱环流强度年际变化的主导模态呈现出空间上的非均匀变化.ElNio的局地作用和大气桥作用激发的太平洋局地哈得莱环流(30°S~30°N,150°E~90°W)和大西洋局地哈得莱环流(30°S~30°N,90°W~10°W)并非呈现出整体一致的变化,尽管二者纬向平均后分别使气候平均的哈得莱环流圈强度加强和减弱.ElNio遥强迫作用激发的西北太平洋反气旋(0°~30°N,100°E~150°E)使北半球Hadley环流圈强度减弱,ElNio和南印度洋暖海温距平共同强迫出的南印度洋反气旋(30°S~0°,60°E~100°E)使南半球Hadley环流圈的强度亦减弱.上述局地哈得莱环流的变化叠加后,因纬向平均的太平洋局地哈得莱环流强度在(副)热带部分的增强大(小)于纬向平均的大西洋局地哈得莱环流和西北太平洋、南印度洋局地哈得莱环流在(副)热带地区的减弱,结果使得哈得莱环流圈的强度在(副)热带部分偏强(弱);较之南半球,北半球强度变化稍强.因此,北半球冬季哈得莱环流年际变率的主导模态在空间上呈现出非均匀变化.     

Variation of surface temperature during the last millennium in a simulation with the FGOALS-gl climate system model

A reasonable past millennial climate simulation relies heavily on the specified external forcings, including both natural and anthropogenic forcing agents. In this paper, we examine the surface temperature responses to specified external forcing agents in a millennium-scale transient climate simulation with the fast version of LASG IAP Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-gl) developed in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). The model presents a reasonable performance in comparison with reconstructions of surface temperature. Differentiated from significant changes in the 20th century at the global scale, changes during the natural-forcing-dominant period are mainly manifested in the Northern Hemisphere. Seasonally, modeled significant changes are more pronounced during the wintertime at higher latitudes. This may be a manifestation of polar amplification associated with sea-ice-temperature positive feedback. The climate responses to total external forcings can explain about half of the climate variance during the whole millennium period, especially at decadal timescales. Surface temperature in the Antarctic shows heterogeneous and insignificant changes during the preindustrial period and the climate response to external forcings is undetectable due to the strong internal variability. The model response to specified external forcings is modulated by cloud radiative forcing (CRF). The CRF acts against the fluctuations of external forcings. Effects of clouds are manifested in shortwave radiation by changes in cloud water during the natural-forcing-dominant period, but mainly in longwave radiation by a decrease in cloud amount in the anthropogenic-forcing-dominant period.     

2003年8月“巴蜀夜雨”过程的模拟和分析研究

结合中尺度数值预报模式AREM的数值试验和观测资料分析,对2003年8月川西地区的9次夜雨过程进行了模拟研究和综合分析.结果表明,在一定环流背景下,川西地区特殊地形引起的沿坡地的辐合上升运动和下垫面提供给低层大气的热通量所导致的大气层结不稳定,对川西夜雨的形成和发展有重要影响.白天,随着陆-气通量交换的增加,低层大气的温度和湿度逐步升高,并在午后达到极值.与此同时,低层偏南暖湿气流在盆地西部由于气旋性弯曲而形成的东北风在午后逐渐加强,这支气流在盆地西部被地形阻挡,产生爬升运动.辐合上升将低层高温高湿的大气向上输送,使得大气不稳定层结的厚度以及强度都增加;日落以后,低层大气的相对湿度随着气温的降低而增大,容易饱和而形成凝结,同时大气中积累了相当可观的对流有效位能,低层辐合抬升等因素容易触发不稳定能量释放,造成对流性夜雨天气.强烈的对流辐合运动需要周围大气的入流补偿,促使偏东风气流增强且向高空伸展,这令辐合抬升作用进一步增强.     

东亚副热带西风急流及其年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟

分析了中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)快速耦合气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的东亚副热带西风急流,并讨论了ENSO对东亚夏季副热带西风急流位置的影响.FGOALS_gl能较好模拟东亚副热带西风急流的空间分布以及季节演变,但较之再分析资料,模式模拟的急流强度偏弱...