副热带高压强度变化的模糊聚类诊断预测

采用模糊C均值聚类 (FCM)、遗传算法 (GA) 和模糊减法聚类 (FSC) 交叉融合、优势互补思想进行副热带高压影响因子的综合聚类分析和副热带高压指数的诊断预测。在统计分析的基础上, 通过选择若干与副热带高压指数关系密切的影响因子构成了高维特征空间, 进行了综合聚类分析, 实现了副热带高压指数的聚类判别和诊断预测。该文提出的综合聚类方法既可克服FCM/GA算法全局/局部寻优的不足, 又可客观确定聚类数目。试验结果表明, 该方法具有良好的分类效果, 判别结果与实况基本相符。     

湿斜压性与热带气旋强度突变

应用湿位涡方程和倾斜涡度发展理论 ,研究了热带气旋内部相当位温结构的演变与其强度突变的可能关系 ,并用一套高分辨率的模拟资料对所得结论进行验证。结果表明 ,由于热带气旋眼壁附近等相当位温面陡立 ,湿斜压性变化所激发的倾斜涡度发展是引起该区域垂直涡度突然增大或突然减小的主要原因。当热带气旋中心附近大部分区域的垂直涡度显著增长时 ,热带气旋就会在整体上表现为爆发性或迅速发展。最后还据此对同心双眼结构的出现和消失如何影响热带气旋强度变化进行了探讨。     

青藏高原周边对流层顶的时空分布、热力成因及动力效应分析

利用多套、多种再分析资料的逐日气候平均场,通过对比分析,揭示了青藏高原周边区域对流层顶分布及其季节演变的独特特征,并分析了其热力成因以及气候学效应。结果表明,与同纬度的落矶山和太平洋地区相比,青藏高原及伊朗高原区域对流层顶高度的冬夏变化幅度更大。冬季副热带对流层顶断裂带（热带对流层顶与极地对流层顶之间高度剧烈变化的过渡带）位于青藏与伊朗两个高原上空,春季开始两个高原上空对流层顶抬升迅速,夏季最高可超过热带对流层顶的高度（超过100 hPa）,成为同纬度甚至全球对流层顶最高点。青藏与伊朗两个高原上空对流层顶的剧烈抬高,对应两个高原上空大气气柱比同纬度明显偏暖,同时伴随着青藏与伊朗两个高原上空位势涡度值的明显降低。因此,在青藏与伊朗两个高原区域,由春至夏等熵面强烈下凹,同时等位涡面剧烈抬升;夏季时等位涡面及对流层顶断裂带在青藏高原北部成近乎上下垂直分布,与南北倾斜分布的等位温面接近正交分布。这种特征与夏季同纬度其他地区相对平缓的对流层顶断裂带、等位涡面以及等熵面的经向分布形成强烈对比。进一步研究发现,青藏与伊朗两个高原上空由春至夏迅速发展的强大热源是引起上述对流层顶变化特征的主要原因。不同的是,青藏高原上空主要由发展强烈的对流凝结潜热所主导,而伊朗高原上空则主要由绝热下沉加热引起;此外,由春季至夏季,随着青藏高原地区对流层顶与等熵面剧烈相交分布的形成,南亚高压也逐步控制青藏高原上空,在南亚高压东缘盛行的偏北气流作用下,中高纬度平流层的高位涡空气得以在青藏高原东缘及东亚地区沿剧烈倾斜的等熵面被输送到较低纬度的对流层。与降水的季节演变对比可知,平流层高位涡输送的出现、加强和减弱与夏季降水的发展、加强与减弱成同步对应关系。从而证实了青藏高原影响夏季东亚地区形成独特气候格局的事实,说明在这种影响过程中,平流层-对流层动力相互作用过程不可忽视。      

WAVE-MEAN FLOW INTERACTION AND FORMATION OF BLOCKING——PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS WEATHER IN CHINA IN THE SUMMER OF 1980

In the summer of 1980,serious persistent abnormal weather occurred over vast areas in China.While record-break-ing cold and flood were observed in the reaches of the Changjiang and Huaihe Rivers,severe hot wave and drought dom-inated the entire northern China.The long-lasting disastrous weather is mainly due to the stable development and main-tenance of blocking anticyclone over the northeastern Asia.This study aims at the understanding of the roles oftime-varying weather system transport in the formation of the blocking.It was shown that during this period,there appeared continuous generation of synoptic-scale perturbations alongthe strong baroclinic zone over Europe and the western Asia.While such perturbations propagated eastward,energyconversion occurred.At equivalent barotropic layer,with weak dissipation,such energy conversion was subjected to theso-called bi-directional principle:while the energy of the synoptic-scale system cascaded to smaller scale system,amuch larger portion was transferred to the blocking system with larger scale.Potential vorticity diagnoses also revealedthat the transient weather systems played the roles of maintaining the mean anticyclonic vorticity to the south,and meancyclonic vorticity to the north,of the westerly jet,and exciting strong anticyclonic vorticity growth and correspondinggeopotential height increase in high latitude area downstream of the westerly diffluence region.The research also showed that,the intensity of the forcing of the blocking formation via wave-mean flowinteraction in this Asian case was much stronger than that occurring in the western Europe in the summer of 1976.It wastherefore concluded that when persistent abnormal weather in the northern China was studied,in addition to thesubtropical weather systems,attention should also be drawn to the development of baroclinic zone over Europe and thewestern Asia,and the propagation and transfer properties of the synoptic systems embedded in the baroclinic zone.     

海气相互作用研究进展——美国海-气相互作用第九届学术会内容简介

海气相互作用研究进展——美国海－气相互作用第九届学术会内容简介吴国雄（中国科学院大气物理研究所ＬＡＳＧ①,北京１０００８０）海气相互作用不仅影响着风暴、气旋等短期天气过程,还影响着季风、大气涛动以及年代际变化等气候过程。ＡＭＳ第７８届年会期间举办了第...     

青藏高原低涡形成、发展和东移影响下游暴雨天气个例的位涡分析

2016年6月28日至7月1日在我国副热带地区发生了一次青藏高原低涡形成、发展及东传引发长江中下游地区暴雨天气的过程。本文利用MERRA2（Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications）再分析资料和TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission）降水资料对该过程进行位涡诊断分析。结果表明，夏季青藏高原地表加热具有强烈的日变化。高原地表加热由白天感热加热源到夜间辐射冷却源的转变直接影响高原上空非绝热加热率的垂直梯度，使高原近地层白天有位涡耗散，夜间有位涡制造，呈现明显的昼夜循环。当夜间的位涡制造异常强，以至不为白天的耗散所抵消时，通常位涡制造的昼夜循环被破坏，高原低涡形成，低涡周围随之出现降水。当低涡中心移动至高原东部时，中心附近伴随有强烈的降水，显著的凝结潜热加热使位涡中心增强，高原低涡进一步发展。随着低涡系统继续向东移出高原，长江中下游地区中高层出现位涡平流随高度增加的大尺度动力背景，上升运动发展，最终导致强降水发生。     

STRUCTURAL AND EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EASTERLY VORTEX OVER THE TROPICAL REGION

By employing the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets (1000-10hPa, 2.5°×2.5°), the characteristics have been analyzed of the structure and evolution of an easterly vortex over the tropical upper troposphere relating to the east-west direction shift of the subtropical anticyclone over the Western Pacific Ocean. It is shown that there exists a westward shift simultaneously between the anticyclone and the vortex locating south of it. The anticyclone retreats eastward abnormally while the easterly encounters with the westerly around the same longitudes as they move from the opposite directions. The former is an upper weather system, extending from mid-troposphere to the height of 50 hPa with the center locating on 200 hPa.The vertical thermal distribution illustrates the characteristics of being "warm in the upper layer but cold in the lower layer". The divergence effect and the vertical motion change largely within the east and west sides of the easterly vortex and ascending branch transforms to descending branch near its center.     

Seasonal evolution of subtropical anticyclones in the climate system model FGOALS-s2

The simulation characteristics of the seasonal evolution of subtropical anticyclones in the Northern Hemisphere are documented for the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land Systemmodel, Spectral Version 2 (FGOALS-s2), developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics. An understanding of the seasonal evolution of the subtropical anticyclones is also addressed. Compared with the global analysis established by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts, the ERA-40 global reanalysis data, the general features of subtropical anticyclones and their evolution are simulated well in both winter and summer, while in spring a pronounced bias in the generation of the South Asia Anticyclone(SAA) exists. Its main deviation in geopotential height from the reanalysis is consistent with the bias of temperature in the troposphere. It is found that condensation heating (CO) plays a dominant role in the seasonal development of the SAA and the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific (SAWP) in the middle troposphere. The CO biases in the model account for the biases in the establishment of the SAA in spring and the weaker strength of the SAA and the SAWP from spring to summer. CO is persistently overestimated in the central-east tropical Pacific from winter to summer, while it is underestimated over the area from the South China Sea to the western Pacific from spring to summer. Such biases generate an illusive anticyclonic gyre in the upper troposphere above the middle Pacific and delay the generation of the SAA over South Asia in April. In midsummer, the simulated SAA is located farther north than in the ERA-40 data owing to excessively strong surface sensible heating (SE) to the north of the Tibetan Plateau. Whereas, the two surface subtropical anticyclones in the eastern oceans during spring to summer are controlled mainly by the surface SE over the two continents in the Northern Hemisphere, which are simulated reasonably well, albeit with their centers shifted westwards owing to the weaker longwave radiation cooling in the simulation associated with much weaker local stratiform cloud. Further improvements in the related parameterization of physical processes are therefore identified.     

大气热力强迫和动力强迫的调配及平均经圈环流的仿真模拟

通过研究平均经围环流（ＭＭＣ）及其所受的内外强迫作用的相互配置，指出对ＭＭＣ的热力和动力强迫满足确定的调配率。这一调配率受大气内在的斜压性、静力稳定度及绝对涡度制约。利用辐射加热和凝结加热参数化方案，结合欧洲中期天气预报中心（ＥＣＭＷＦ）的分析资料，对１月份平均经围环流进行数值仿真模拟。结果表明，热带对流加热可以形成双层Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流结构；涡动动量输送对双Ｈａｄｌｅｙ环流的形成也有一定影响。中高纬度的ＭＭＣ则主要由外动量强迫及大气的动量和热量输送特征决定。     

大气平衡态的动力特征 I:多平衡态的共面和非共面性质

本文设计了一个有地形、强迫源和摩擦耗散的球面正压低阶模型来研究大气平衡态的动力特征。在相空间中,存在各平衡态共存的非线性作用曲面、角动量平面和强迫耗散球面。多平衡态的共面特征反映着大气运动的全局行为。指出大气运动的非线性特征只为多平衡态的存在提供可能性,但不提供必然性。动能和位涡拟能的分析表明,不同平衡态处在不同的能级,具有不同的拟能态,在相空间上位于不同的能量球面上。了解各态间的动力差异有助于理解大气运动向定常态收敛和产生振荡的物理原因。这将在第Ⅱ部份深入讨论。