利用MODIS资料监测和预警干旱新方法

为了提高遥感监测土壤水分和干旱的技术水平,在对常用遥感监测土壤水分和干旱方法进行评价的基础上,根据土壤热力学理论,提出了利用EOS/MODIS资料遥感监测农业干旱的新方法———能量指数模式。实际监测应用结果表明,能量指数模式更适合农作物土壤水分和干旱的监测,监测效果明显优于已经业务化的其它模式。农作物生长季节干旱的预警应当在土壤水分遥感监测的基础上,考虑未来预警期内的预报降水量和最高气温,并且把这个预报降水量和最高气温定量转化为土壤水分订正值,按照当地的标准划分成干旱预警等级。     

一次特殊雷击事故的思考

对现造成雷击事故案例分析与讨论。     

Multi-Year Simulations and Experimental Seasonal Predictions for Rainy Seasons in China by Using a Nested Regional Climate Model （RegCM_NCC） Part Ⅱ： The Experimental Seasonal Prediction

A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center (NCC) since 2001. The NCC/IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics) T63 coupled GCM (CGCM) provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model (RegCM NCC). The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme (TKE) and an improved land process model (LPM). The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part I. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model’s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast (1991–2000) for summer (June–August), the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a negative, ACC. The reason behind this improvement is likely to be related to the more realistic representation of the large-scale terrain features of the Tibetan Plateau. Presumably, many rain-producing systems may be generated over or near the Tibetan Plateau and may then move eastward along the Yangtze River basin steered by upper-level westerly airflow, thus leading to enhancement of rainfalls in the mid and lower basins of the Yangtze River. The real-time experimental predictions for summer in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 by using this nested RegCM NCC were made. The results are basically reasonable compared with the observations.     

“8．14—15”玛沁地区罕见暴雨成因分析

本文通过对2005年8月14日～15日玛沁强降水的分析,发现这次降水是在高温、高湿条件下,都兰、格尔木的风向与达日等地的风向形成切变,抬升气流上升而产生的。     

北京市朝阳区沙子营垃圾污染物在潜水含水层中迁移规律的现场模拟实验

选择北京平原区水文地质、环境地质等方面都比较典型的沙子营垃圾堆放场,建立了其水文地质模型。在充分收集资料、分析得出部分计算所需参数后,采用现场弥散实验、勘查取样测试等方法,求得了该含水层的弥散系数等参数;用二维非稳定流溶质运移方程对污染物在此含水层中的迁移扩散规律、速度和污染范围等进行了模拟计算;采用现场钻探、取样测试分析等方法,评价了该含水层的实际污染状况。实验模拟计算和现场调查结果表明:污染物在潜水含水层中的运移规律遵循二维非稳定流场中的溶质运移方程,污染物在潜水含水层中的运移速度约为86.25m/a,迁移扩散主要发生在地下水流向上,侧向扩散宽度极小,是地下水流向上的1/17。     

贵州遵义镍-钼富集层中独居石的发现及成因意义

对贵州遵义天鹅山-黄家湾镍-钼富集层中镍-钼矿石进行了电子探针研究,在镍-钼矿石中发现了稀土独立矿物——独居石,呈不规则的细粒、蠕虫状分布于矿石中,并与镍、钼的独立矿物共生;独居石La和Ce的含量高(La2O3含量变化范围为25.70%～30.52%,Ce2O3含量变化范围为22.96%～27.68%),贫Sm、Th(Sm2O3含量的变化范围为0.49%～0.80%,ThO2含量的变化范围为0%～0.19%),具有热液成因独居石的化学成分特征。镍-钼矿石中稀土矿物独居石的发现为镍-钼矿层的热液成因提供了直接的矿物学证据。     

闽西一次冰雹过程的雷达产品分析

以闽西一次典型冰雹过程为例，对这次冰雹过程的雷达基本反射率和基本速度特征进行了定性分析，对回波强度、回波顶高、强回波核高度、垂直积分液态含水量和多普勒速度等进行了定量分析。通过分析发现了一些冰雹雷达产品的重要指标和判据，这些结论在龙岩市日常的天气预报业务工作中对判断是否为冰雹回波和降雹时段、地点有很好的作用。     

希腊VAN地震预报方法的进展与争论（Ⅰ）—进展

该文综合希腊ＶＡＮ小组成员及各国专家发表的有关论文,全面介绍了ＶＡＮ小组自８０年代初以来所进行的地电地震预报方法的探索和效果,包括观测技术,预报程序,地震三要素的估计,预报及对应情况,国际上的评价及争论等。全文包括两部分,即进展和国际评价和争论,本文是其中的第一部分。     

生活环境与地质信息紧密相关

环境地质,城市地质与人类在实际生活中有着紧密的联系,它行旅我们因地质灾害的发生所造成对自然环境,生产平衡的破坏,已影响到人类的生存。为了减少因地质灾害给人类带来的损失,人类要注重收集灾害发生前各种地质现象产生的迹象,各种地质灾害的破坏程度以及灾害带来的损失大小等多方面的地质信息,并通过收集这些信息,加以研究,采取对策,从而达到合理地利用有限资源,有效的保护人类生存的环境,避免灾害给人类带来的巨大在