喀斯特水文学的前景

喀斯特水文学有多方面都值得深入地和分别地研究。碳酸盐岩石对水文体系之上或其内部天然作用的不同敏感性,导致了环境方面的很大变化,其中很多直接地或间接地与渗透性有关。单一的研究已多样化了,对显著的喀斯特环境及其有关的水文学特征的局部区域描述已是常见的事了。喀斯特过程的研究已经取得了很大进展,但是并没有集中起来从全国和全世界范围内的岩溶环境的研究中得到很好的应用。通常出现在喀斯特地区的实际问题起因于如下几个方面:(1)预报性差,而且水源分布不均匀;(2)没有足够的土壤;(3)缺少常年性河流;(4)地基不稳定;(5)不可靠的废物处理环境。所有这些问题在某种程度上都与喀斯特地区的各种渗透性有关,喀斯特地区的天然水均衡可能已被人类的活动干扰了,故应将它加到环境影响的问题中去。进一步的研究可能会导致:(a)在世界范围内对喀斯特景观进行系统地描述,从而对常见的和似乎异常的特征进行鉴别和分类;(b)对过程进行更广泛地研究,以显示出各种景观的形成过程是如何进行的;(c)把科学知识应用于土地和水管理的方案以及各种喀斯特地区的基本原理之中。对喀斯特地区关注的不断增加是有道理的,而且进一步的研究将使人类能更好地开发和利用这些地区。     

控制非洲和北美之间的破裂及古海洋学的脉动构造的最新钻井资料

布莱克-巴哈马(Blake-Bahama)盆地,深海钻井计划(DSDP)534井位的IPOD最新钻井资料给出了与北美大西洋板块边缘破裂有关的扩张中心的漂移的确定年龄。布莱克-斯潘 (Blake-Spur)地磁异常测定的为具有基本的卡洛夫年龄。这种地磁异常记录了标志着现代北大西洋诞生的洋脊扩张中心的漂移,比以前设想的年龄年轻约20Ma。由此可以得出一种推断: 引起北大西洋开裂的扩张中心漂移现在具有的年龄指出延伸扩张中心的漂移在墨西哥湾要结束了。有人认为这可能是同一个事件。另一种推断是:沿北美边缘的侏罗纪外层的磁静带需有很高的扩张速度,这种相对高的扩张速度与磁静带之间的关联同白垩纪中期的相似,同时也暗示了在上地幔控制的板块扩张速度过程和在外核控制的磁场过程之间的一种联系。海洋扩张速度的快和慢与地磁场的宁静和反转都具有60—100Ma的周期。由地幔最低层的热物质流的周期性喷发而形成的脉动构造理论能够解释这种相关性。这些喷出物带着热量离开核幔边界,后来达到软流圈和岩石圈,引起快速扩张。在侏罗纪,这种扩张的脉动明显地导致了北大西洋的洋脊开裂。由快速扩张引起的其它一些脉动的出现与地球各部分的多数洋脊破裂有关,这意味着扩张是一种全球性的过程。被动边缘的破裂也许就是受脉动构造理论所描述的较基本的全球性过程的控制。     

加勒比海的一次非加深扰动的诊断研究(节译)

2、天气形势a、天气和云的分布文章中扰动例子是发生在1966年7月5日小安的列斯群岛的东南方。它开始增强向西北方向移到加勒比海,在那里五天内完全消失。选择7月6日和7日来研究,因为在这个时期里,扰动曾达到它最大强度,     

用地震方法圈定oslo地堑区软流圈及FeN—岩石圈

这篇文章回顾了在过去和现在的地震学研究中绘制芬诺斯坎以及邻近地区浅部地壳和软流圈横向非均匀性方面所做的工作。这里所获得的大多数的成果是由覆盖于 OSLO 地堑北部的大点距的 NORSAS排列中所得到的高精度的数据推导来的。这一排列所布置的区域已经用了新的 P 波旅行时间和振幅分析技术极详细地绘制了地震剖面图。在 OSLO 地堑区,地震异常曲线同地堑表面的形态并没有显示出明显的相关关系.也没有表现出和有关的重力异常有明显的联系。芬诺斯坎岩石圈的整个特征在地震波速度方面有百分之几的波动。还有某些迹象表明在加里东以前的岩石圈同波罗的海岩石圈比较起来是复杂一些的。我们感兴趣的在斯甚的纳维是在亚南部的浅部岩石圈中发现一个十分显著的地震速度异常,估计该区地壳厚度为250km。在 NORSAR—北大西洋,NORSAR—苏联西部和 NORSAR/联合国—南欧之间的波程上,我们已经观察到了深达500公里以上的地幔的横向的变化。     

Application of HF radar currents to oil spill modelling

In this work, the benefits of high-frequency (HF) radar currents for oil spill modeling and trajectory analysis of floating objects are analyzed. The HF radar performance is evaluated by means of comparison between a drifter buoy trajectory and the one simulated using a Lagrangian trajectory model. A methodology to optimize the transport model performance and to calculate the search area of the predicted positions is proposed. This method is applied to data collected during the Galicia HF Radar Experience. This experiment was carried out to explore the capabilities of this technology for operational monitoring along the Spanish coast. Two long-range HF radar stations were installed and operated between November 2005 and February 2006 on the Galician coast. In addition, a drifter buoy was released inside the coverage area of the radar. The HF radar currents, as well as numerical wind data were used to simulate the buoy trajectory using the TESEO oil spill transport model. In order to evaluate the contribution of HF radar currents to trajectory analysis, two simulation alternatives were carried out. In the first one, wind data were used to simulate the motion of the buoy. In the second alternative, surface currents from the HF radar were also taken into account. For each alternative, the model was calibrated by means of the global optimization algorithm SCEM-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis) in order to obtain the probability density function of the model parameters. The buoy trajectory was computed for 24 h intervals using a Monte Carlo approach based on the results provided in the calibration process. A bivariate kernel estimator was applied to determine the 95% confidence areas. The analysis performed showed that simulated trajectories integrating HF radar currents are more accurate than those obtained considering only wind numerical data. After a 24 h period, the error in the final simulated position improves using HF radar currents. Averaging the information from all the simulated daily periods, the mean search and rescue area calculated using HF radar currents, is reduced by approximately a 62% in comparison with the search area calculated without these data. These results show the positive contribution of HF radar currents for trajectory analysis, and demonstrate that these data combined with atmospheric forecast models, are of value for trajectory analysis of oil spills or floating objects.     

向公众传达地震风险:“拉奎拉7人”的审判

对意大利中部拉奎拉7名公职人员的审判和定罪,据称是因为在2009年4月6日地震之前对公众给出了令人误解的和不正确的信息,已被证明是最近一段时间在科学与减少灾害风险方面最重要的发展之一,同时也是最令人误解的事件之一。它突出地展现了将地球科学中普遍的带有不确定性特征的发现转换成保护普通公民的信息的困难。本文介绍有关在拉奎拉地震灾难中及随后的审判和法律诉讼程序中的那些情况。分析审判的政治、社会和科学方面,以及意大利和其他国家的科学家和他们单位的反应。我认为被告应是负有责任的公职人员,而不是科学家。意大利和国外大众媒体倾向于坚持审判的是预测地震的能力,这对各国科学家的意见也产生了极大地影响。然而,正如检察官所说,实际上审判的是用"不完整的、不准确的和相互矛盾的信息"误导公众导致明显地致命的后果。我相信对审判的很多国际反应是被有关诉讼程序的不完整的二手信息所误导。如果科学家们在他们自己的工作上以如此肤浅的方式做判断,结果也会非常不可靠,而公众对科学的信任将会直线下跌。     

Seasonally frozen soil effects on the dynamic behavior of highway bridges

Frozen ground is significantly stiffer than unfrozen ground. For bridges supported on deep foundations, bridge stiffness is also measurably higher in winter months. Significant changes due to seasonal freezing in bridge pier boundary conditions require additional detailing in order to ensure a ductile performance of the bridge during a design earthquake event. This paper reports the latest results obtained from a project that systematically investigated the effects of seasonally frozen soil on the seismic behavior of highway bridges in cold regions. A bridge was chosen and was monitored to study its seismic performance and assess the impact of seasonally frozen soil on its dynamic properties. A Finite Element (FE) model was created for this bridge to analyze the impact of seasonal frost. It was found that when frost depth reaches 1.2 m, the first transverse modal frequency increases about 200% when compared with the no-frost case. The results show that seasonal frost has a significant impact on the overall dynamic behavior of bridges supported by pile foundations in cold regions, and that these effects should be accounted for in seismic design.     

UNIQUE ASPECTS OF MODELING IRRIGATI0N-INDUCED SOIL EROSION

llNTRODUCTIONIrrigationisimp0rtanttof00dpr0ducti0nthr0ughoutthew0rld.Irrigati0nisused0naboutl5theworld'scropland(KendalIandPimentel,l994)and5%ofthew0rld'sfoodproductionland,whichincludesrangelandandpermanentcr0pland(FAO,l998).However,irrigatedlandproducesmorethan30%ofthew0rld'sf0od(Tribe,1994),whichis2l/2timesasmuchperunitareacomparedt0n0n-irrigatedproducti0n(KendallandPimentel,1994).IntheUnitedStates,approximatelyl5theharvestedcr0plandisirrigated,butalmost40thet0talcr0pvalue…     

The lacustrine sedimentary records of coal-burning atmospheric pollution

With the acceleration of industrialization, coal- burning atmospheric pollution is getting more and more serious in many regions in China. However, there are only about ten odd years literature records about pollution in some large and mid-sized cities, where the atmosphere has perhaps been polluted for several decades, and therefore it is difficult to know the process and characteristic of pollution, and diffi-cult to evaluate its damage to environment. Lacustrine sediment, a natural record w…