A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Approximate spectral analysis by least-squares fit

An approximate method of spectral analysis called successive spectral analysis based upon the mean-quadratic approximation of an empirical function by generalised trigonometric polynomial with both unknown frequencies and coefficients is developed. A few quotations describing some properties of the method as well as one of the possible methods for numerical solution are given.     

On the Integrability of Limited-Area Numerical Weather Prediction Model ALADIN over Extended Time Periods

This note summarizes results of the first integration of regional numerical weather prediction model ALADIN in a climate mode. The ALADIN model, developed in an international cooperation led by Météo France, is operationally used for weather prediction. The grid step of the model is 12 km; the integration domain covers a major part of Europe. A one-month-long run has been performed with this model on observed boundary conditions (represented by assimilations by the global model ARPEGE). It is demonstrated that no excessive error is generated and accumulated in the model during the integration; hence the model is integrable for extended time periods and may serve a basis for a development towards a regional climate model.     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of Platinum-group elements in the Ransko gabbro–peridotite massif,Bohemian Massif (Czech Republic)

The Ransko gabbro-peridotite massif in Eastern Bohemia is a strongly differentiated intrusive complex of Lower Cambrian age. The complex hosts low grade Ni-Cu ores mainly developed close to the contact of olivine-rich rocks with gabbros, in troctolites and, to a much lesser extent, in both pyroxene and olivine gabbros and plagioclase-rich peridotites. The ore zone is characterized by strong serpentinization and uralitization. The total Ni + Cu locally reaches up to 4 wt%. Anomalous concentrations of platinum-group elements (PGE's) (maximum 532 ppb Pd, 182 ppb Pt, 53 ppb Rh, 15 ppb Ru, 41 ppb Ir) were detected in samples of Cu-Ni and Ni-Cu ores (maximum 2.63 wt% Ni and 2.31 wt% Cu) from the Jezírka orebody. The main ore paragenesis includes pyrrhotite, pentlandite, chalcopyrite, cubanite, pyrite, magnetite, mackinawite, valleriite, ilmenite and sphalerite. During this work, michenerite, froodite, sperrylite, gold, native bismuth, altaite, tsumoite, hessite, an unnamed Bi-Ni telluride, cobaltite-gersdorffite and galena were newly identified. The host rocks originated through partial melting of a slightly depleted mantle source with noble metals scavenged from this primitive magma prior to the development of these rocks.     

Pre‐ and post‐test mathematical modelling of a plan‐asymmetric reinforced concrete frame building

Pre‐ and post‐test analyses of the structural response of a three‐storey asymmetric reinforced concrete frame building were performed, aimed at supporting test preparation and performance as well as studying mathematical modelling. The building was designed for gravity loads only. Full‐scale pseudo‐dynamic tests were performed in the ELSA laboratory in Ispra. In the paper the results of initial parametric studies, of the blind pre‐test predictions, and of the post‐test analysis are summarized. In all studies a simple mathematical model, with one‐component member models with concentrated plasticity was employed. The pre‐test analyses were performed using the CANNY program. After the test results became available, the mathematical model was improved using an approach based on a displacement‐controlled analysis. Basically, the same mathematical model was used as in pre‐test analyses, except that the values of some of the parameters were changed. The OpenSees program was employed. Fair agreement between the test and numerical results was obtained. The results prove that relatively simple mathematical models are able to adequately simulate the detailed seismic response of reinforced concrete frame structures to a known ground motion, provided that the input parameters are properly determined. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relation between rigorous and Helmert’s definitions of orthometric heights

Following our earlier definition of the rigorous orthometric height [J Geod 79(1-3):82–92 (2005)] we present the derivation and calculation of the differences between this and the Helmert orthometric height, which is embedded in the vertical datums used in numerous countries. By way of comparison, we also consider Mader and Niethammer’s refinements to the Helmert orthometric height. For a profile across the Canadian Rocky Mountains (maximum height of ~2,800 m), the rigorous correction to Helmert’s height reaches ~13 cm, whereas the Mader and Niethammer corrections only reach ~3 cm. The discrepancy is due mostly to the rigorous correction’s consideration of the geoid-generated gravity disturbance. We also point out that several of the terms derived here are the same as those used in regional gravimetric geoid models, thus simplifying their implementation. This will enable those who currently use Helmert orthometric heights to upgrade them to a more rigorous height system based on the Earth’s gravity field and one that is more compatible with a regional geoid model.     

Effect of common point selection on coordinate transformation parameter determination

The use of satellite positioning techniques commonly requires a transformation from a Conventional Terrestrial coordinate system to a Geodetic coordinate system, or vice versa. For such a transformation, the main problem is the determination of transformation parameters between these coordinate systems. The transformation parameters are estimated by a least-squares process using “common” points, i.e., those points whose coordinates are known in both systems. Therefore, the precision of so estimated transformation parameters is closely related to certain characteristics of the common points. In this contribution, we have formulated some theoretical relations between the transformation parameters and the number and the distribution of common points, and corroborated the theoretical results numerically, using a simulated geodetic network.     

Explicit formula for the geoid-quasigeoid separation

The explicit formula for the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction is derived in this paper. On comparing the geoidal height and height anomaly, this correction is found to be a function of the mean value of gravity disturbance along the plumbline within the topography. To evaluate the mean gravity disturbance, the gravity field of the Earth is decomposed into components generated by masses within the geoid, topography and atmosphere. Newton’s integration is then used for the computation of topography-and atmosphere-generated components of the mean gravity, while the combined solution for the downward continuation of gravity anomalies and Stokes’ boundary-value problem is utilized in computing the component of mean gravity disturbance generated by mass irregularities within the geoid. On application of this explicit formulism a theoretical accuracy of a few millimetres can be achieved in evaluation of the geoid-to-quasigeoid correction. However, the real accuracy could be lower due to deficiencies within the numerical methods and to errors within the input data (digital terrain and density models and gravity observations).     

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.