Point process-based modeling of multiple debris flow landslides using INLA: an application to the 2009 Messina disaster

We develop a stochastic modeling approach based on spatial point processes of log-Gaussian Cox type for a collection of around 5000 landslide events provoked by a precipitation trigger in Sicily, Italy. Through the embedding into a hierarchical Bayesian estimation framework, we can use the integrated nested Laplace approximation methodology to make inference and obtain the posterior estimates of spatially distributed covariate and random effects. Several mapping units are useful to partition a given study area in landslide prediction studies. These units hierarchically subdivide the geographic space from the highest grid-based resolution to the stronger morphodynamic-oriented slope units. Here we integrate both mapping units into a single hierarchical model, by treating the landslide triggering locations as a random point pattern. This approach diverges fundamentally from the unanimously used presence–absence structure for areal units since we focus on modeling the expected landslide count jointly within the two mapping units. Predicting this landslide intensity provides more detailed and complete information as compared to the classically used susceptibility mapping approach based on relative probabilities. To illustrate the model’s versatility, we compute absolute probability maps of landslide occurrences and check their predictive power over space. While the landslide community typically produces spatial predictive models for landslides only in the sense that covariates are spatially distributed, no actual spatial dependence has been explicitly integrated so far. Our novel approach features a spatial latent effect defined at the slope unit level, allowing us to assess the spatial influence that remains unexplained by the covariates in the model. For rainfall-induced landslides in regions where the raingauge network is not sufficient to capture the spatial distribution of the triggering precipitation event, this latent effect provides valuable imaging support on the unobserved rainfall pattern.     

Evaluating preprocessing methods of digital elevation models for hydrological modelling

With the introduction of high‐resolution digital elevation models, it is possible to use digital terrain analysis to extract small streams. In order to map streams correctly, it is necessary to remove errors and artificial sinks in the digital elevation models. This step is known as preprocessing and will allow water to move across a digital landscape. However, new challenges are introduced with increasing resolution because the effect of anthropogenic artefacts such as road embankments and bridges increases with increased resolution. These are problematic during the preprocessing step because they are elevated above the surrounding landscape and act as artificial dams. The aims of this study were to evaluate the effect of different preprocessing methods such as breaching and filling on digital elevation models with different resolutions (2, 4, 8, and 16 m) and to evaluate which preprocessing methods most accurately route water across road impoundments at actual culvert locations. A unique dataset with over 30,000 field‐mapped road culverts was used to assess the accuracy of stream networks derived from digital elevation models using different preprocessing methods. Our results showed that the accuracy of stream networks increases with increasing resolution. Breaching created the most accurate stream networks on all resolutions, whereas filling was the least accurate. Burning streams from the topographic map across roads from the topographic map increased the accuracy for all methods and resolutions. In addition, the impact in terms of change in area and absolute volume between original and preprocessed digital elevation models was smaller for breaching than for filling. With the appropriate methods, it is possible to extract accurate stream networks from high‐resolution digital elevation models with extensive road networks, thus providing forest managers with stream networks that can be used when planning operations in wet areas or areas near streams to prevent rutting, sediment transport, and mercury export.     

The Need for Ultraviolet to Understand the Chemical Evolution of the Universe and Cosmology.

We identify an important set of key areas where an advanced observational Ultraviolet capability would have major impact on studies of cosmology and Galaxy formation in the young Universe. Most of these are associated with the Universe at z < 3–4. We address the issues associated with Dark matter evidence in the local Universe and the impact of the Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium WHIM on the local Baryon count. The motivations to make ultraviolet (UV) studies of supernovae (SNe) are reviewed and discussed in the light of the results obtained so far by means of IUE and HST observations. It appears that UV studies of SNe can, and do lead to fundamental results not only for our understanding of the SN phenomenon, such as the kinematics and the metallicity of the ejecta, but also for exciting new findings in Cosmology, such as the tantalizing evidence for “dark energy” that seems to pervade the Universe and to dominate its energetics. The need for additional and more detailed UV observations is also considered and discussed.Finally we show the enormous importance of the UV for abundance evolution in the Intergalactic Medium (IGM), and the importance of the He II studies to identify re-ionization epochs, which can only be done in the UV.     

The Hegemony of Global Politics: News Coverage of Climate Change in a Small Country

Researching media coverage of climate change may shed light on the different configurations of global and domestic factors affecting journalism and politics. This article analyzes climate change coverage in Portugal from 2007 to 2014 in comparison with 14 other countries. It shows that the Portuguese press tends to reproduce the global political agenda on climate change, mainly focusing on international events associated with global political decision-making processes, instead of providing a domesticated coverage, as observed in other countries. National and local levels of action are thus obscured. The interplay between global and domestic factors—including characteristics of Portugal’s press and politics, such as national political leaders’ lack of mobilization and communication on climate change, media’s deference to powerful sources, and reliance on international news feeds—creates the conditions for global politics to play an hegemonic role in media representations, which is likely to influence public engagement with climate change.     

Analysis of piled raft coefficient and load-settlement on sandy soil

A piled raft foundation is a combined foundation, which is developed to utilize the load-carrying capabilities of both raft and piles. To obtain an optimum piled raft design, it is important to properly evaluate and consider the load-sharing behavior between the raft and piles, which changes according to the settlement level of the piled raft. In this study, 27 three-dimensional finite element models were analyzed to investigate the piled raft coefficient with linear and nonlinear load-settlement behaviors. The length of piles was varied between 10, 15, and 20 m. The spacing between pile centers was varied between 3D, 5D, and 7D, and the pile diameter was kept constant. The number of piles and the distance between the exterior piles and the edge of the raft were maintained at 9 and 1 m, respectively. The sand conditions varied between dense, medium, and loose. The results indicated that the piled raft coefficient increases when the load-settlement curve is linear and decreases when the load-settlement curve is nonlinear. The influence of the incremental increase in pile length on the piled raft coefficient is more pronounced in short piles than in longer piles. The raft thickness has a negligible effect on the piled raft coefficient.     

Social learning towards a more adaptive paradigm? Reducing flood risk in Kristianstad municipality,Sweden

Social learning is often treated as an intervention, a designed process facilitated or even initiated by a third party. We investigated how a social learning process emerged spontaneously from inside Kristianstad, one of the most flood-prone municipalities in Sweden. Twenty key persons were interviewed over 8 years, many of them several times, to assess the process. A small action oriented group of technical professionals perceived the flood risk and were key drivers providing strategic innovative capacity. We identified the process attributes that fostered the learning, the knowledge generated and other learning outcomes adapting a model by Schusler et al. (2003). Despite some elements of double loop learning, this process was not able to change the prevailing stationary principle/paradigm, feeling safe behind the embankments and continuing building on low lying land. We argue that building resilience and adaptive capacity would require a mind shift to a paradigm of flood proofing/living with floods and preparing for the unexpected, acknowledging that water cannot be controlled at a certain level. We conclude that knowledge development is inhibited by the Swedish decentralisation approach and we call for a multilevel learning strategy including learning from international experience and emphasising more active coordination at the national level.     

Predicted wavelengths of coronal transitions in the configurations 3s 23p 2, 3s 23p 3 and 3s 23p 4

The level intervals in the ground configurations 3s ²3p ^k(k = 2, 3, 4) have been studied through the isoelectronic sequences up to Ni. Semiempirical expressions for the parameters F ₂(pp) and _p, are derived from observed data and the intervals are recalculated from interpolated or extrapolated values of the parameters. As a result, predicted wavelengths of magnetic-dipole transitions within the configurations are obtained with an estimated uncertainty of one or two Å.     

Pitch angle and energy distributions of auroral electrons measured by the ESRO 4 satellite

Energy spectra and angular distributions of auroral electrons in the energy range 0.2–16 keV measured by the low-altitude polar orbiting satellite ESRO 4 are presented. The observations were made in the altitude range 800–1000 km near magnetic midnight. Energy-time spectrograms show inverted-V structures with peaked energy spectra. The inverted-V events are associated with anisotropic electron pitch angle distributions peaked at 0 deg. Frequently these distributions have a maximum also at 90 deg. Measurements of >43 keV electrons indicate that the acceleration probably occurs on closed field lines. It is found that many properties of the observed particle distributions can be explained by acceleration in an electric field parallel to the magnetic field lines, if trapping of particles under an increasing potential drop is included in the model.