Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.     

柴达木盆地东北缘古元古代变质镁铁—超镁铁质岩的地质特征及成因探讨

1:5万区域地质调查工作中,在柴达木陆块北缘首次发现古元古代变质镁铁—超镁铁质岩,获得成岩年龄为1952±15Ma,其岩石化学、地球化学特征反映出岩浆来源于亏损地幔,反映出该地区克拉通在古元古代(19亿年)发生了一次强烈的裂解(洋)事件,对于研究柴达木盆地北缘元古代结晶基底地质构造演化及进一步探讨柴达木盆地的起源及构造演化过程提供了重要地质线索。     

富氏谱分析法模拟地壳垂直运动的地学依据及其策应力模型

应用地壳波浪与镶嵌构造学说对富氏谱分析法提取地壳垂直形变信息的科学性做了地质学意义上的阐释 ,并提出了根据多期形变资料提取特定波段上构造策应力的数学模型     

Magnetic susceptibility variations of the Edicaran cap carbonates in the Yangtze platform and their implications for paleoclimate

1 INTRODUCTION One of the most intriguing phenomena in the late Neoproterozoic (~750 to 543 Ma) is the globa occurrence of thin carbonates that directly overlie glacial deposits in almost every continent (Kennedy 1996; Hoffman et al., 1998; Hoffman and Schrag 2002; Brasier and Shields, 2000; James et al., 2001 Jiang et al., 2003; Nogueira et al., 2003). These “cap carbonates”, commonly several to tens of meters thick, have attracted enormous interests because o their unusually negati…     

The Bengal Fan: Some preliminary results from ODP drilling

Three deep holes, with a maximum penetration of 960 m below sea floor, were drilled into the distal Bengal Fan just south of the equator during ODP Leg 116. The entire section recovered is dominated by sandy silt and mud turbidites derived from the Ganges Delta and from the continental margin of the western Bay of Bengal, interbedded with thin pelagic clays and with biogenic turbidites probably from a local sea mount source. The effects of Hi-Malayan uplift, sea level fluctuations, local tectonics, and fan channel/lobe processes have closely interacted to produce the observed sedimentary record of the past 17 million years since the early Miocene.Coauthors include: James R. Cochran, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory (Co-chief scientist); Dorrik A. V. Stow, Nottingham University, England (Co-chief scientist); Christian A. Auroux, Texas A & M University, USA (ODP staff scientist); Kazou Amano, Ibaraki University, Japan; Peter S. Balson, British Geological Survey, Keyworth, Notts, England; Jacques Boulegue, Pierre & Marie Curie University, Paris, France; Garrett W. Brass, University of Miami, Florida, USA; Jeffrey Corrigan, University of Texas, Austin, USA; Stefan Gartner, Texas A & M University, USA; Stuart A. Hall, University of Houston, Texas, USA; Silvia Iaccarino, University of Parma, Italy; Toshio Ishizuka, University of Tokyo, Japan; trena Kacmarska, Mount Allison University, New Brunswick, Canada; Heidemarie Kassens, Kiel University, West Germany; Gregory Leger, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; Franca Proto Decima, University of Padova, Italy; C. V. Raman, Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, India; William W. Sager, Texas A & M University, USA; Kozo Takahashi, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA; Thomas Thompson, 580 Euclid Ave, Boulder, Colo, USA; Jean-Jacques Tiercelin, University of Bretagne, Brest, France; Mark Townsend, University of Nottingham, England; Andreas Wetzel, Tubingen University, West Germany; N. P. Wijayananda, National Aquatatic Resource Agency, Colombo, Sri Lanka; and Colin Williams, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory.     

矿产预测中成矿信息的提取和强化

成矿信息的提取是矿产预测的重要手段,其方法的有效性直接影响到预测成果的可靠性。在成矿规律研究的基础上,有意识地干预模型的构成,突出与成矿有关的信息;抑制某些成矿意义不明显和属干扰的信息,有目的地使模型向反映成矿信息的方向逼近,提高模型与矿床实际赋存地质环境的吻合程度,均是成矿信息提取和强化的内涵。本文从研究实践中总结了先验约束模型和非先验约束模型的强化方法,在新疆阿勒泰地区的地质－找矿工作中已取得     

首都减灾圈的思考与建议

首都减灾圈,系首都减轻自然灾害预测防治圈。1991年12月20—21日在北京召开了《首都圈自然灾害及其减灾对策研讨会》。本文根据这次会议所提供的材料,在从整体上实现减灾的思想指导下,就首都减灾圈的“成灾背景”、“首都减灾圈的组成”、“首都减灾圈的灾害预测与防治状况”、“首都减灾圈的灾害关联性分析”、“首都减灾圈的减灾实效预估”和“首都减灾圈的减灾对策与实施”等六个带有共同性的问题,进行了讨论。供制定首都圈减灾方案时参考。     

Sedimentary Features of Shallow Ancient River Channels on the Northern Shelf of the South China Sea

Quaternary buried ancient river channels are widespread in the shallow-level sediments of the northern shelf of the South China Sea. The sedimentary sequence mainly of fluvial deposits comprise an important component part of the low-stand system tract and transgressive system tract in the study region. The plannar variation and spatial association of the sedimentary features such as incised valley fillings, deltaic foreset wedges and block slides of shelf-marginal fans reflect the palaeogeographic environment during the fall of the regional sea level in the northern part of the South China Sea. Based on the high-resolution seismic reflection data and gelogical data from boreholes, the present paper makes an integrated interpretation of the Quaternary ancient river channels in the shallow sediments of the study area, studies the sedimentary features of the ancient channels such as their spatial distribution, seismic facies reflection indicators, sedimentary facies and sand -body types, and discusses thei     

二维地震观测系统合理性的论证方法

已知勘查区深度范围前提下,最大炮检X和道间距ΔX,不可以太大也不可以太小,施工前能够计算出它的允许值范围。