Prediction Test for the Two Extremely Strong Solar Storms in October 2003

In late October and early November 2003, a series of space weather hazard events erupted in solar-terrestrial space. Aiming at two intense storm (shock) events on 28 and 29 October, this paper presents a Two-Step method, which combines synoptic analysis of space weather–`observing’ and quantitative prediction – ‘palpating’, and uses it to test predictions. In the first step, ‘observing’, on the basis of observations of the source surface magnetic field, interplanetary scintillation (IPS) and ACE spacecraft, we find that the propagation of the shock waves is asymmetric and northward relative to the normal direction of their solar sources due to the large-scale configuration of the coronal magnetic fields, and the Earth is located near the direction of the fastest speed and greatest energy of the shocks. Being two fast ejection shock events, the fast explosion of extremely high temperature and strong magnetic field, and background solar wind velocity as high as 600 and 1000 km s⁻¹, are also helpful to their rapid propagation. According to the synoptic analysis, the shock travel times can be estimated as 21 and 20 h, which are close to the observational results of 19.97 and 19.63 h, respectively. In the second step, ‘palpating’, we adopt a new membership function of the fast shock events for the ISF method. The predicted results here show that for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 1.8 and 6.7%, which are consistent with the estimated results of the first step; and for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative errors between the observational and the predicted results are 4.1 and 3.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the comparison among the predicted results of our Two-Step method with those of five other prevailing methods shows that the Two-Step method is advantageous in predicting such strong shock event. It can predict not only shock arrival time, but also the magnitude of magnetic disturbance. The results of the present paper tell us that understanding the physical features of shock propagation thoroughly is of great importance in improving the prediction efficiency.     

Isotopic evidence for holocene climatic changes in Bosten Lake, Southern Xinjiang, China

Based on the δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O fluctuation of lacustrine carbonate, CaCO₃ content and sporo-pollen data, a palaeoclimatic history of Bosten Lake during the Holocene has been outlined, several stages of climatic changes are divided, and the following result es are obtained: (1) Palaeoclimatic changes revealed by carbonate isotope around Bosten Lake are basically identical with that revealed by other geological records in Xinjiang. Environmental changes presented apparent Westlies Style model: during cold period, relative humidity increased, δ¹⁸O, δ¹³C and CaCO₃ appeared low; but in warm periods, the dry regime aggravated. (2) The temperature reflected by δ¹⁸O exist evident features being increase in the late period during the Holocene. Together with the δ¹³C, pollen and CaCO₃ analyses, several cold and warm phases which are of broad regional significance can be identified. The warm peaks occurred at about 11.0 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P., 7.5 ka B.P., 5.0 ka B.P., 3.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P.; the cold peaks at 11.5 ka B.P., 10.5 ka B.P., 8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P., 3.3 ka B.P., 2.2 ka B.P. and 1.5 ka B.P.. (3) Several climatic events with the nature of “abrupt climatic changes” are revealed in the periods of 11.0 ka B.P. −10.5 ka B.P., 9.4 ka B.P. −8.8 ka B.P., 5.5 ka B.P. −5.0 ka B.P. and 2.0 ka B.P. −1.5 ka B.P.. (4) The results show that carbonate isotopic record of lacustrine sediment in arid area is very sensitive to climatic changes, and may be play a very important role in understanding the features and mechanism of palaeoclimatic changes.     

北部湾北部海上油田发现历程

北部湾北部海上油田的开发工作始于５０年代，６０～７０年代作了大量地质工作。改革开放后，油气勘查取得突破性进展。累计发现油气构造６个，含油面积超过４０ｋｍ２，石油地质储量约４亿ｔ，已开发油田２个，揭开我国南方油气资源开发序幕     

彗星等离子体某些特征的讨论

本文讨论了彗星中尘埃粒子的充电机制 ,带电特性和平衡电势的变化规律 ,分析了彗星尘埃的破碎特性和临界半径 ,得出了很有意义的结果     

Geological environment conflicts of Kunming Basin and its urban sustainable development

Kunming Basin locates middle of Yunnan altiplano and has a particularity in geography,topographic and geological environment.With the urban dilation quickly,add the reason of the unreasonable city layout,conflicts between environment and urban resources consumption become shrill increasingly.It is human being activities that lead to vulnerability and depravation of geological environment in local.Take a few examples on geological environment to expatiate relationship between urban construction and geological environment carrying capacity,and find a way how to make a better plan for urban sustainable development to achieve new balance between man and nature in local.     

南海北缘北东东向构造活动性研究

从地形地貌特征、重磁地球物理场、深部构造与断裂构造以及地震活动、震源机制等多方面论述北东东向构造是南海北缘的主要活动构造。对于长期以来认为新华夏系北东向构造是该区主要活动构造的观点来说，这是一种新的学术思想。     

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。     

同震阶变异常的特征与机制分析

本文对徐州地震台JB—72水平摆倾斜仪1988年11月至1989年5月间所记录到的24次同震阶变进行了深入分析,认为:a.造成同震阶变的原因是多方面的,而反应了地球应变场准静态调整的同震阶变才是有价值的价变异常;b.多观测手段的地震台站,同震阶变应该在不止一台仪器上得到响应。     

Impact of land use covers upon karst processes in a typical Fengcong depression system of Nongla, Guangxi, China

The direction and intensity of karst processes can be deeply affected by soil physical and chemical variations which were resulted from land use. Taking Nongla Fengcong depression area, Mashan County, Guangxi as an example, authors discussed the impact of land use on karst processes based on the data of field limestone tablet. The results showed that the corrosional rates at varied soil depth are quite different. Corrosional rate in woodland and orchard is mostly bigger than 20 mg/a, which is much higher than that in tilled land and shrub. Generally, corrosional rate decreased from orchard, woodland, tilled land, fallow land and shrub successively, in which soil organic matter (OM) and soil pH are two major controlling factors: corrosion process is controlled remarkably by soil OM in woodland and orchard. The higher the organic matter content is and the less the pH value is, the higher the corrosional rate is. Owing to lower organic matter content, the corrosional rate is mainly affected by soil CO₂ in tilled land and shrub.