Oil dispersal modelling: reanalysis of the Rena oil spill using open-source modelling tools

ABSTRACT

Oil spill forecast modelling is typically used immediately after a spill to predict oil dispersal and promote mobilisation of more effective response operations. The aim of this work was to map oil dispersal after the grounding of the MV Rena on Astrolabe Reef and to verify the results against observations. Model predictions were broadly consistent with observed distribution of oil contamination. However, some hot spots of oil accumulation, likely due to surf-zone and rip current circulation, were not well represented. Additionally, the model was run with 81 differing wind conditions to show that the events occurring during the grounding represented the typical likely behaviour of an oil spill on Astrolabe Reef. Oil dispersal was highly dependent on prevailing wind patterns; more accurate prediction would require better observations of local wind patterns. However, comparison of predictions with observations indicated that the GNOME model was an effective low-cost approach.     

Methane-derived authigenic carbonates from active hydrocarbon seeps of the St. Lawrence Estuary,Canada

Nearly 2000 pockmarks with diameters ranging from a few tens of meters up to 700 m are present on the seafloor of the St. Lawrence Estuary in eastern Canada. Coring of some pockmarks resulted in the recovery of various-sized and shaped carbonate concretions in a predominantly silty mud matrix. Petrographic and geochemical data on four authigenic carbonate concretions are reported as well as data from shell material in the unconsolidated sediment. Video observations and echo-sounder images indicate that the sampled pockmarks are actively gas venting. The video images show significant look-alike microbial mats in areas where gas is venting. The carbonate concretions are primarily made up of carbonate cements with varying percentage of shell fragments, micrite particles and fine-grained clastics. Orthorhombic crystal morphology and diagenetic fabrics including isopachous layers and botryoids characterize the aragonite cement. Oxygen isotopes ratios for the cement crusts do not record any thermal anomaly at the site of precipitation with δ¹⁸O_VPDB ratios (+3‰) in equilibrium with cold (5 °C) deep marine waters, whereas significant negative δ¹³C_VPDB ratios (−9.9 to −33.5‰) for cement and shell material within concretions indicate that the carbonates largely derive from the microbial oxidation of methane. The δ¹³C_VPDB ratios of aragonite shells (−2.7 to −5.6‰) taken from unconsolidated sediments at some distance from the concretions/vents show variable dilution of HCO₃⁻ with negative δ¹³C_VPDB ratios derived from microbial oxidation of methane with isotopically normal (0‰) marine bicarbonate. These results are in agreement with other lines of evidence suggesting that pockmarks formed through the recent and still active release of gas from a reservoir within the Paleozoic sedimentary succession.     

Ilmenite composition in the Tellnes Fe–Ti deposit,SW Norway: fractional crystallization,postcumulus evolution and ilmenite–zircon relation

Major and trace element XRF and in situ LA-ICP-MS analyses of ilmenite in the Tellnes ilmenite deposit, Rogaland Anorthosite Province, SW Norway, constrains a two stage fractional crystallization model of a ferrodioritic Fe-Ti-P rich melt. Stage 1 is characterized by ilmenite-plagioclase cumulates, partly stored in the lower part of the ore body (Lower Central Zone, LCZ), and stage 2 by ilmenite-plagioclase-orthopyroxene-olivine cumulates (Upper Central Zone, UCZ). The concentration of V and Cr in ilmenite, corrected for the trapped liquid effect, (1) defines the cotectic proportion of ilmenite to be 17.5 wt% during stage 1, and (2) implies an increase of D _V^Ilm during stage 2, most likely related to a shift in fO₂. The proportion of 17.5 wt% is lower than the modal proportion of ilmenite (ca. 50 wt%) in the ore body, implying accumulation of ilmenite and flotation of plagioclase. The fraction of residual liquid left after crystallization of Tellnes cumulates is estimated at 0.6 and the flotation of plagioclase at 26 wt% of the initial melt mass. The increasing content of intercumulus magnetite with stratigraphic height, from 0 to ca. 3 wt%, results from differentiation of the trapped liquid towards magnetite saturation. The MgO content of ilmenite (1.4–4.4 wt%) is much lower than the expected cumulus composition. It shows extensive postcumulus re-equilibration with trapped liquid and ferromagnesian silicates, correlated with distance to the host anorthosite. The Zr content of ilmenite, provided by in situ analyses, is low (<114 ppm) and uncorrelated with stratigraphy or Cr content. The data demonstrate that zircon coronas observed around ilmenite formed by subsolidus exsolution of ZrO₂ from ilmenite. The U-Pb zircon age of 920 ± 3 Ma probably records this exsolution process. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

In vitro screening for endocrine disruptive activity in selected South African harbours and river mouths

Various waterborne anthropogenic contaminants disrupt the endocrine systems of wildlife and humans, targeting reproductive pathways, among others. Very little is known, however, regarding the occurrence of endocrine disruptive activity in South African freshwater ecosystems, and coastal ecosystems have not been studied in this regard. In a first attempt to investigate endocrine disruptive activity in South African coastal waters, surface water samples collected from harbours, river mouths and estuaries in three metropolitan municipalities, eThekwini (which includes Durban), Nelson Mandela (specifically Port Elizabeth Harbour) and City of Cape Town, were screened for (anti) oestrogenicity and (anti)androgenicity using recombinant yeast bioassays. Moreover, levels of the female hormone 17β-(o)estradiol (E2) were determined in all samples, as well as a selection of hydrocarbons in the eThekwini samples. A high proportion of samples collected from eThekwini were oestrogenic, whereas none from Port Elizabeth Harbour and only a single river mouth sampled in the City of Cape Town were oestrogenic. E2 was detected in all the samples tested, but at higher concentrations at the eThekwini and City of Cape Town localities than Port Elizabeth Harbour. In addition, the recombinant yeast assays revealed that anti-androgenicity was widespread, being detected in the majority of samples screened apart from those representing Port Elizabeth Harbour. Conversely, no anti-oestrogenic or androgenic activity was detected. Anti-androgenicity did not associate with hydrocarbon loads, providing evidence that other anti-androgens were responsible for the observed activity. The present data suggest potential reproductive disruption in marine and estuarine fauna inhabiting the eThekwini and City of Cape Town regions.     

Analyzing seismic imagery in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains to determine fluid nature and migration pathways: A case study from the Queen Charlotte Basin,offshore British Columbia

Combining time–amplitude and time–frequency information from seismic reflection data sets of different resolutions allows the analysis of anomalous reflections from very-shallow to great subsurface depths. Thus, it can enhance the imaging of subsurface features which have a frequency-dependent reflectivity such as gas. Analysing seismic data of different resolution in the time–amplitude and time–frequency domains is a powerful method to determine hydrocarbon migration pathways from deep reservoirs to the seafloor. This interpretation method has been applied to the formerly-glaciated offshore Queen Charlotte Basin hosting several seafloor pockmarks and mounds associated with the leakage of underlying hydrocarbon reservoirs. Low-frequency shadows observed in the time–frequency domain provide evidence of different resolutions that several anomalous reflection amplitudes may be attributed to the occurrence of gas. The seismic imagery shows that gas uses a fault to migrate from deep reservoirs included in Upper Mesozoic strata towards secondary reservoirs located along the fault plane into Neogene layers. Once gas reaches a porous cut-and-fill succession, migration changes from structurally- to stratigraphically-controlled before gas leaks through unconsolidated Quaternary sediments forming the shallow subsurface to eventually seep at the seafloor where pockmarks and carbonate mounds are formed.     

Post-injection trapping of mobile CO<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">2</Emphasis></Subscript> in deep aquifers: Assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties

Predicting the fate of the injected CO₂ is crucial for the safety of carbon storage operations in deep saline aquifers: especially the evolution of the position, the spreading and the quantity of the mobile CO₂ plume during and after the injection has to be understood to prevent any loss of containment. Fluid flow modelling is challenging not only given the uncertainties on subsurface formation intrinsic properties (parameter uncertainty) but also on the modelling choices/assumptions for representing and numerically implementing the processes occurring when CO₂ displaces the native brine (model uncertainty). Sensitivity analysis is needed to identify the group of factors which contributes the most to the uncertainties in the predictions. In this paper, we present an approach for assessing the importance of model and parameter uncertainties regarding post-injection trapping of mobile CO₂. This approach includes the representation of input parameters, the choice of relevant simulation outputs, the assessment of the mobile plume evolution with a flow simulator and the importance ranking for input parameters. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is proposed, associated with the ACOSSO-like meta-modelling technique to tackle the issues linked with the computational burden posed by the use of long-running simulations and with the different types of uncertainties to be accounted for (model and parameter). The approach is tested on a potential site for CO₂ storage in the Paris basin (France) representative of a project in preliminary stage of development. The approach provides physically sound outcomes despite the challenging context of the case study. In addition, these outcomes appear very helpful for prioritizing the future characterisation efforts and monitoring requirements, and for simplifying the modelling exercise.     

The dust distribution within the inner coma of comet P/Halley 1982i: encounter by Giotto's impact detectors

Analysis of the data from Giotto's Dust Impact Detection System experiment (DIDSY) is presented. These data represent measurement of the size of dust grains incident on the Giotto dust shield along its trajectory through the coma of comet P/Halley on 1986 March 13/14. First detection occurred at some 287000 km distance from the nucleus on the inbound leg; the majority of the DIDSY subsystems remained operational after closest approach (604 km) yielding the last detection at about 202000 km from the nucleus. In order to improve the data coverage (and especially for the smallest grains, to approximately 10(-19) kg particle mass), data from the PIA instrument has been combined with DIDSY data. Flux profiles are presented for the various mass channels showing, to a first approximation, a 1/R2 flux dependence, where R is the distance of the detection point from the cometary nucleus, although significant differences are noted. Deviations from this dependence are observed, particularly close to the nucleus. From the flux profiles, mass and geometrical area distributions for the dust grains are derived for the trajectory through the coma. Groundbased CCD imaging of the dust continuum in the inner coma at the time of encounter is also used to derive the area of grains intercepted by Giotto. The results are consistent with the area functions derived by Giotto data and the low albedo of the grains deduced from infrared emission. For the close encounter period (-5 min to +5 min), the cumulative mass distribution function has been investigated, initially in 20 second periods; there is strong evidence from the data for a steepening of the index of the mass distribution for masses greater than 10(-13) kg during passage through dust jets which is not within the error limits of statistical uncertainty. The fluences for dust grains along the entire trajectory is calculated; it is found that extrapolation of the spectrum determined at intermediate masses (cumulative mass index alpha = 0.85) is not able to account for the spacecraft deceleration as observed by the Giotto Radio Science Experiment and by ESOC tracking operations. Data at large masses (>10(-8) kg) recently analysed from the DIDSY data set show clear evidence of a decrease in the mass distribution index at these masses within the coma, and it is shown that such a value of the mass index can provide sufficient mass for consistency with the observed deceleration. The total particulate mass output from the nucleus of comet P/Halley at the time of encounter would be dependent on the maximum mass emitted if this change in slope observed in the coma were also applicable to the emission from the nucleus; this matter is discussed in the text. The flux time profiles have been converted through a simple approach to modeling of the particle trajectories to yield an indication of nucleus surface activity. There is indication of an enhancement in flux at t approximately -29 s corresponding to crossing of the dawn terminator, but the flux detected prior to crossing of the dawn terminator is shown to be higher than predicted by simple modelling. Further enhancements corresponding to jet activity are detected around +190 s and +270 s.     

Rare-earth data on monzonoritic rocks related to anorthosites and their bearing on the nature of the parental magma of the anorthositic series

Major and trace elements have been determined in monzonoritic rocks (hypersthene-monzodiorite or jotunite) from two intrusions belonging to the South Rogaland anorthositic complex (Norway). The rare-earth abundance pattern reveals no Eu anomaly, or only a very small one. This fact together with field observations suggest that these rocks represent the parental magma of the anorthositic suite. High Ti and P abundances, low Si content, high Fe/Mg and K₂O/SiO₂ ratios are characteristics of the major element geochemistry. Absolute amounts of some trace elements abundances vary distinctly between the two intrusions. K/Rb ratios as high as 1700 are observed. Partial fusion of upper mantle kaersutite is proposed as a possible mechanism of magma generation. Partition coefficients between plagioclase phenocrysts and liquid are determined.     

Geochemistry of cumulates from the Bjerkreim–Sokndal layered intrusion (S. Norway) Part II. REE and the trapped liquid fraction

Rare earth elements in bulk cumulates and in separated minerals (plagioclase, apatite, Ca-poor and Ca-rich pyroxenes, ilmenite and magnetite) from the Bjerkreim–Sokndal layered intrusion (Rogaland Anorthosite Province, SW Norway) are investigated to better define the proportion of trapped liquid and its influence on bulk cumulate composition. In leuconoritic rocks (made up of plagioclase, Ca-poor pyroxene, ilmenite, ±magnetite, ±olivine), where apatite is an intercumulus phase, even a small fraction of trapped liquid significantly affects the REE pattern of the bulk cumulate, together with cumulus minerals proportion and composition. Contrastingly, in gabbronoritic cumulates characterized by the presence of cumulus Ca-rich pyroxene and apatite, cumulus apatite buffers the REE content. La/Sm and Eu/Eu* vs. P₂O₅ variations in leuconorites display mixing trends between a pure adcumulate and the composition of the trapped liquid, assumed to be similar to the parental magma. Assessment of the trapped liquid fraction in leuconorites ranges from 2 to 25% and is systematically higher in the north-eastern part of the intrusion. The likely reason for this wide range of TLF is different cooling rates in different parts of the intrusion depending on the distance to the gneissic margins. The REE patterns of liquids in equilibrium with primitive cumulates are calculated with mass balance equations. Major elements modelling (Duchesne, J.C., Charlier, B., 2005. Geochemistry of cumulates from the Bjerkreim–Sokndal layered intrusion (S. Norway): Part I. Constraints from major elements on the mechanism of cumulate formation and on the jotunite liquid line of descent. Lithos. 83, 299–254) permits calculation of the REE content of melt in equilibrium with gabbronorites. Partition coefficients for REE between cumulus minerals and a jotunitic liquid are then calculated. Calculated liquids from the most primitive cumulates are similar to a primitive jotunite representing the parental magma of the intrusion, taking into account the trapped liquid fraction calculated from the P₂O₅ content. Consistent results demonstrate the reliability of liquid compositions calculated from bulk cumulates and confirm the hypothesis that the trapped liquid has crystallized as a closed-system without subsequent mobility of REE in a migrating interstitial liquid.