Jökulhlaup-related Ice Fracture and Supraglacial Water Release During the November 1996 Jökulhlaup, Skeiðarárjökull, Iceland

During the initial stages of the November 1996 jökulhlaup at Skeiðarárjökull, Iceland, floodwaters burst onto the glacier surface via a series of fractures. This supraglacial drainage led to the formation of a number of distinct ice surface depressions, one of which is investigated in detail. The morphology and structural characteristics of this feature are described, as well as the sedimentology of an associated assemblage of debris-filled fractures. This work suggests that debris-charged subglacial floodwaters travelled up to the glacier surface, where supraglacial flow occurred initially via an extensive network of fractures, orientated parallel to the glacier margin. Supraglacial discharge became progressively more focused into a series of discrete outlets, leading to the mechanical erosion of a number of depressions on the glacier surface. The associated transfer of subglacially derived floodwaters to high levels within the glacier resulted in the rapid entrainment of large volumes of sediment which may influence the patterns, processes and products of ice-marginal sedimentation in the future.     

Spatial data for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment: An overview

The aim of this paper is to discuss a number of issues related to the use of spatial information for landslide susceptibility, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The paper centers around the types of spatial data needed for each of these components, and the methods for obtaining them. A number of concepts are illustrated using an extensive spatial data set for the city of Tegucigalpa in Honduras. The paper intends to supplement the information given in the “Guidelines for Landslide Susceptibility, Hazard and Risk Zoning for Land Use Planning” by the Joint ISSMGE, ISRM and IAEG Technical Committee on Landslides and Engineered Slopes (JTC-1). The last few decades have shown a very fast development in the application of digital tools such as Geographic Information Systems, Digital Image Processing, Digital Photogrammetry and Global Positioning Systems. Landslide inventory databases are becoming available to more countries and several are now also available through the internet. A comprehensive landslide inventory is a must in order to be able to quantify both landslide hazard and risk. With respect to the environmental factors used in landslide hazard assessment, there is a tendency to utilize those data layers that are easily obtainable from Digital Elevation Models and satellite imagery, whereas less emphasis is on those data layers that require detailed field investigations. A review is given of the trends in collecting spatial information on environmental factors with a focus on Digital Elevation Models, geology and soils, geomorphology, land use and elements at risk.     

Women at work—experiences and identity in rural East Germany

The economic restructuring since German unification has produced gender-differentiated patterns in the rural workplace. Most studies of East German labour market changes have illustrated the nature of such patterns in quantitative terms whilst neglecting their impact on everyday life. The relationship between the significance of work for women's quality of life and self-identification, and women's withdrawal from the public has, however, remained under-explored. Based on data obtained through correspondence and in-depth interviews in Mecklenburg-Westpommerania, this paper aims to address this relationship by discussing women's work-related experiences before and since unification.     

Long-range weather forecasts through numerical and empirical methods

There has been much improvement in numerical weather prediction since L.F. Richardson (1922, Weather Prediction by Numerical Process, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 236) wrote his famous book. NWP has primarily been successful in improving day-by-day forecasts starting from an observed detailed Initial Condition (IC) out to about a week. The purpose of this paper is to discuss first the state of the art in long-range NWP by presenting results of a new large numerical experiment (named DERF90; from Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting in 1990 out to 90 days) conducted at the National Meteorological Center (NMC) during the summer and autumn of 1990 (Section 2). One hundred and twenty eight 90-day global forecasts were made from successive daily initial conditions (IC), thus giving us ample opportunity to assess skill of forecasts at lead times beyond 1 week.We then move on to define the notion of a limit of predictability (LOP), and following a procedure by Lorenz (1982), give a numerical estimate of the LOP using the DERF90 data set. We then produce a list of reasons, as to why this estimate (LOP = 18 days) should not be taken too literally. In particular, we argue that the LOP varies as a function of the flow itself, and it would be (much) larger if we had, as we will ultimately, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for making long-lead forecasts. Last, but not least, we present results of empirical forecasts that point to modest but significant skill well beyond the traditional LOP (a few weeks).A specific recent example of empirical forecasting is discussed. Through Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), experimental forecasts are being made for the United States surface temperatures at lead times of several seasons. While modest, the skill is significant in that it defies the existence or a 3-week LOP, and so demonstrates the potential for model improvements.     

Baja California 边缘PC14 岩芯海水表层温度及生产力变化的百年尺度记录

加利福尼亚流是北太平洋环流的重要组成部分,它的变化对全球气候及碳循环有重要影响.对位于东北太平洋低纬区BajaCalifornia外海的PC14柱状样进行了有机地球化学分析,重建了过去14ka来这一地区百年尺度的海水表面温度及生产力变化,发现其存在明显的B/A(Bling-Aller)和YD(Younger Drays)事件,但B/A和YD事件温度变化幅度小于中纬度地区.与中纬度加利福尼亚流系早中全新世温度降低不同,PC14全新世温度无明显变化趋势.这些结果表明了东太平洋低纬地区对高纬地区的气候响应以及沿岸上升流和ENSO现象对加利福尼亚流系中纬和低纬地区的影响不同.从冰消期到全新世,PC14生产力呈现阶段上升趋势,指示了由E1 Nino气候向La Nifia气候的转化以及沿岸上升流加强的总体趋势.在全新世中后期(6.5-3.8ka)生产力的降低,则可能是受ENSO加强的影响.在B/A暖期,PC14生产力增加不多,但氧最小层强度增加,这表明生产力变化不是东太平洋边缘海的氧最小层强化的控制因素.     

Responses of marine phytoplankton in iron enrichment experiments in the northern North Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean

Short-term iron enrichment experiments were carried out with samples collected in areas with different phytoplankton activity in the northern North Sea and northeast Atlantic Ocean in the summer of 1993. The research area was dominated by high numbers of pico-phytoplankton, up to 70,000 ml⁻¹. Maximum chlorophyll a concentrations varied from about 1.0 μg l⁻¹ in a high-reflectance zone (caused by loose coccoliths, remnants from a bloom of Emiliania huxleyi) and about 3.5 μg l⁻¹ in a zone in which the phytoplankton were growing, to about 0.5 μg l⁻¹ in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. From the high-reflectance zone to the northeast Atlantic Ocean, nitrate concentrations increased from 0.5 μM to 6.0 μM. Concentrations of reactive iron in surface water showed an opposite trend and decreased from about 2.6 nM in the high-reflectance zone to <1.0 nM in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In the research area, no signs of true iron deficiency were found, but iron enrichments in the high-reflectance zone, numerically dominated by Synechococcus sp., resulted in increased nitrate uptake. Ammonium uptake was hardly affected. Strong support for the effect of Fe on cell physiology is given by the increase in the f-ratio. Net growth rates of the phytoplankton (changes in cell numbers over 24 h) were almost unchanged. Phytoplankton collected from the northeast Atlantic Ocean, did not show changes in the nitrogen metabolism upon addition of iron. Net growth rates in these incubations were low or negative, with only slightly higher values with additional iron.     

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.     

Formation of iron sulfide nodules during anaerobic oxidation of methane

The biomarker compositions of iron sulfide nodules (ISNs; upper Pliocene Valle Ricca section near Rome, Italy) that contain the ferrimagnetic mineral greigite (Fe₃S₄) were examined. In addition to the presence of specific terrestrial and marine biomarkers, consistent with formation in coastal marine sediments, these ISNs contain compounds thought to originate from sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB). These compounds include a variety of low-molecular-weight and branched alkanols and several non-isoprenoidal dialkyl glycerol diethers (DGDs). In addition, archaeal biomarkers, including archaeol, macrocyclic isoprenoidal DGDs and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers are also present. Both SRB and archaeal lipid δ¹³C values are depleted in ¹³C (δ¹³C values are typically less than −50‰), which suggests that the SRB and archaea consumed ¹³C depleted methane. These biomarker and isotopic signatures are similar to those found in cold seeps and marine sediments where anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) occurs with sulfate serving as the terminal electron acceptor. Association of AOM with formation of greigite-containing ISNs could provide an explanation for documented remagnetization of the Valle Ricca sediments. Upward migration of methane, subsequent AOM and associated authigenic greigite formation are widespread processes in the geological record that have considerable potential to compromise paleomagnetic records.     

The abundance and radial distribution of satellite galaxies

Using detailed mock galaxy redshift surveys (MGRSs) we investigate the abundance and radial distribution of satellite galaxies. The mock surveys are constructed using large numerical simulations and the conditional luminosity function (CLF), and are compared against data from the Two Degree Field Galaxy Redshift Survey (2dFGRS). We use Monte Carlo Markov chains to explore the full posterior distribution of the CLF parameter space, and show that the average relation between light and mass is tightly constrained and in excellent agreement with our previous models and with that of Vale & Ostriker. The radial number density distribution of satellite galaxies in the 2dFGRS reveals a pronounced absence of satellites at small projected separations from their host galaxies. This is (at least partly) owing to the overlap and merging of galaxy images in the 2dFGRS parent catalogue. Owing to the resulting close-pair incompleteness we are unfortunately unable to put meaningful constraints on the radial distribution of satellite galaxies; the data are consistent with a radial number density distribution that follows that of the dark matter particles, but we cannot rule out alternatives with a constant number density core. Marginalizing over the full CLF parameter space, we show that in a ΛCDM concordance cosmology the observed abundances of host and satellite galaxies in the 2dFGRS indicate a power spectrum normalization of  σ₈≃ 0.7  . The same cosmology but with  σ₈= 0.9  is unable to match simultaneously the abundances of host and satellite galaxies. This confirms our previous conclusions based on the pairwise peculiar velocity dispersions and the group multiplicity function.