Windstorm of the eighteenth century in the Czech Lands: course,extent, impacts

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This paper addresses the course, extent, and impacts of a windstorm that occurred on 20–21 December 1740, in the Czech Lands. The analysis is based on...     

Design-based versus model-based sampling strategies: Comment on R. J. Barnes' “bounding the required sample size for geologic site characterization”

Two fundamentally different sources of randomness exist on which design and inference in spatial sampling can be based: (a) variation that would occur on resampling the same spatial population with other sampling configurations generated by the same design, and (b) variation occurring on sampling other populations, hypothetically generated by the same spatial model, using the same sampling configuration. The former leads to the design-based approach, which uses classical sampling theory; the latter leads to the model-based approach and uses geostatistical theory. Failure to recognize these two sources of randomness causes misunderstanding about dependence of variables and the role of randomization in sampling, unwarranted narrowing down the choice of sampling strategies to those that are model-based, and abuse in simulation experiments. This is exemplified in Barnes' publication on the required sample size for geologic site characterization by nonparametric tolerance intervals. A basic design-based strategy like Simple Random Sampling is shown to require smaller sample sizes than the model-based strategy advocated by Barnes. In addition, Simple Random Sampling is completely robust against model errors and less complicated.     

Computer estimation of intensities: The 1985 Berhida,Hungary, earthquake

In this paper a computerized method for the intensity estimation from macroseismic observations is presented. The successive steps of the MSK intensity scale (2° to 10°) receives weights according to the observations marked on the earthquake questionnaires. These weights are summed for the individual scale steps. The distribution of these summed weights and their relation to an experimentally chosen function of the criterion make it possible to estimate the appropriate intensity value and its reliability. By computer evaluation of earthquake reports an objective comparison of estimated intensities given by different seismologists can be made, provided that uniform earthquake questionnaires are used. The application of this method will result in more homogeneous intensity data.     

Model-free estimation from spatial samples: A reappraisal of classical sampling theory

A commonly held view among geostatisticians is that classical sampling theory is inapplicable to spatial sampling because spatial data are dependent, whereas classical sampling theory requires them to be independent. By comparing the assumptions and use of classical sampling theory with those of geostatistical theory, we conclude that this view is both false and unfortunate. In particular, estimates of spatial means based on classical sampling designs require fewer assumptions for their validity, and are therefore more robust, than those based on a geostatistical model.     

Organic carbon content in surface sediments—defining regional provinces

Approaches to quantify the organic carbon accumulation on a global scale generally do not consider the small-scale variability of sedimentary and oceanographic boundary conditions along continental margins. In this study, we present a new approach to regionalize the total organic carbon (TOC) content in surface sediments (<5 cm sediment depth). It is based on a compilation of more than 5500 single measurements from various sources. Global TOC distribution was determined by the application of a combined qualitative and quantitative-geostatistical method. Overall, 33 benthic TOC-based provinces were defined and used to process the global distribution pattern of the TOC content in surface sediments in a 1°×1° grid resolution. Regional dependencies of data points within each single province are expressed by modeled semi-variograms. Measured and estimated TOC values show good correlation, emphasizing the reasonable applicability of the method. The accumulation of organic carbon in marine surface sediments is a key parameter in the control of mineralization processes and the material exchange between the sediment and the ocean water. Our approach will help to improve global budgets of nutrient and carbon cycles.     

The stratigraphic evolution of the Indus Fan and the history of sedimentation in the Arabian Sea

The Indus Fan records the erosion of the western Himalayas and Karakoram since India began to collide with Asia during the Eocene, 50 Ma. Multi-channel seismic reflection data from the northern Arabian Sea correlated to industrial well Indus Marine A-1 on the Pakistan Shelf show that sedimentation patterns are variable through time, reflecting preferential sedimentation in deep water during periods of lower sea-level (e.g., middle Miocene, Pleistocene), the diversion of sediment toward the east following uplift of the Murray Ridge, and the autocyclic switching of fan lobes. Individual channel-levee systems are estimated to have been constructed over periods of 10⁵–10⁶ yr during the Late Miocene. Sediment velocities derived from sonobuoys and multi-channel stacking velocities allow sections to be time-depth converted and then backstripped to calculate sediment budgets through time. The middle Miocene is the period of most rapid accumulation, probably reflecting surface uplift in the source regions and strengthening of the monsoon at that time. Increasing sedimentation during the Pleistocene, after a late Miocene-Pliocene minimum, is apparently caused by faster erosion during intense glaciation. The sediment-unloaded geometry of the basement under the Pakistan Shelf shows a steep gradient, similar to the continent-ocean transition seen at other rifted volcanic margins, with basement depths on the oceanward side indistinguishable from oceanic crust. Consequently we suggest that the continent-ocean transition is located close to the present shelf break, rather than >350 km to the south, as previously proposed.     

Alpine metamorphic evolution and cooling history of the Veporic basement in northern Hungary: new petrological and geochronological constraints

Petrological and geochronological investigations were carried out on metamorphic rocks of the Veporic unit (Inner Western Carpathians) in northern Hungary. K/Ar and Ar/Ar data on micas and amphibole show only Alpine ages (mostly in the range of 87-95 Ma) in this basement unit. Thermobarometric calculations yield lower amphibolite facies peak conditions (ca. 550냴 °C and 9ǃ kbar) for the Eoalpine metamorphic event. Complex evolution of gneissic rocks is reflected by the presence of discontinuously zoned garnets, the cores of which may represent relics of a pre-Alpine (presumably Variscan) thermal event. Zircon fission track (FT) data in the narrow range of 75-77.5 Ma indicate that this portion of the Veporic unit was emplaced to shallow crustal levels already during the Senonian time. The relative minor difference between zircon FT and K/Ar or Ar/Ar ages suggests very rapid cooling during the Late Cretaceous, most probably related to the extensional unroofing of the Veporic core complex. The obtained cooling ages do not support previous models of Tertiary uplift and exhumation of the Veporic unit along the Hurbanovo-Diósjeni Line.